The WNBA is about halfway through its postseason, with Game 3 of its semifinals tomorrow. The Las Vegas Aces continue to like the “world beaters” they were hyped as. Meanwhile, the New York Liberty-Connecticut Sun appears primed to go the full five games. But now the series flips the script as the No. 4 Dallas Wings (2-2) host No. 1 Las Vegas (4-0) and No. 3 Sun (3-2) host No. 2 Liberty (3-1).
2023 WNBA Semifinals Game 3: Best Bets, Parlays, & Player Props
[cta id=4013 type=cta]
No.2 New York Liberty Travels To No.3 Connecticut Sun With Series Knotted At 1-1
After shooting just 33.3% from the field in Game 1, New York’s offense clicked a lot beter in Game 2 and the Liberty evened up the series 1-1 as they shot 44.6% from the floor while sinking 10 treys. Sabrina Ionescu (21 points) and Betnijah Laney (20) combined for 41 points to lead the way as all five Liberty starters scored in double-figures. Meanwhile, Tiffany Hayes poured in 30 points and DeWanna Bonner added 19 to pace the Sun.
Game 3 will take place at the Mohegan Sun Arena, with a tip set for 7 p.m. (ET) on Friday. New York is favored by -4.0 points, with the over/under set at 159. New York is -180 on the moneyline, while Connecticut is +152.
Prediction:
Expect this contest to be very similar to the first playoff contests: very physical and tight. New York is the better team, especially on offense. The Liberty are very well-balanced and have at least three players who can beat a team. Meanwhile, the Sun wins games due to their defense.
During the regular season, the two games in Connecticut were much closer than the contests in New York were. The Liberty won each of their two home games by at least 16 points. Conversely, both of the games at the Mohegan Sun were decided by eight or fewer points.
While I’m leaning to take the Liberty on the money line and the Sun with the spread, I’m going to pass on both. Those two bets could be used in a parlay.
The traditional bet that I like the most is the Over 159 points. The teams have hit that number in just three of their six meetings this year. But they went past that total in both meetings in Connecticut.
Furthermore, the Sun has been better offensively at home than on the road. The average score this season at the Mohegan Sun has been 165. The average score for the Liberty on the road is 166 this year.
Saying that my best bet is for Connecticut to lead after the first quarter. The Sun have led after the opening 10 minutes in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, New York has trailed in five of their last seven contests.
Connecticut has held a first-quarter lead in five of the six meetings against New York this year. The Sun has won the first stanza in both playoff games, outscoring the Liberty 47-37.
Best Bet: Connecticut To Win First Quarter +115
Other Bets: Over 159 Points (-110)
New York Liberty Over 81.5 Points (-115)
Connecticut Sun Over 77.5 Points (-115)
Player Props
Breanna Stewart Under 21. 5 Points (-110)
Stewart averaged 20.8 points against Connecticut during the regular season. But she has struggled mightly in the playoffs, averaging 16.8 points on 27.8% from the field and 9.5% from deep. She has reached the 20-point mark just once this postseason. Stewart had 19 points in Game 1 against the Sun and just 11 in Game 2.
Jonquel Jones Over 12.5 Points (-125) and Over 10.5 Rebounds (-105)
Jones has played well this postseason, she is averaging 16.0 points and 12.5 during the postseason. She has posted a double-double in every game.
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists and Under 8.5 Rebounds
While Thomas has struggled shooting the ball, she continues to impress as a passer. I expect Thomas, who is averaging 9.4 assists a game during the playoffs, to continue being more of a facilator than passer. She has 19 assists in the first two games against the Liberty and has totaled at least nine dimes four times this postseason.
Meanwhile, Thomas has yet to grab more than eight rebounds this postseason.
Sabrina Ionescu Under 5.5 Rebounds (-130)
DeWanna Bonner Over 6.5 Rebounds (-135)
WNBA Same Game Parlay
Betnijah Laney 12+ Points
Courtney Vandersloot 8+ Points
DeWanna Bonner 15+ Points
Jonquel Jones +12 Points
Sabrina Ionescu +15 Points
Alyssa Thomas 8+Rebounds -175
Courtney Vandersloot 5+ Assists
DeWanna Bonner 5+ Rebounds
Jonquel Jones 8+ Rebounds
Connecticut Over 75.5 Points
New York Over 80.5 Points
11-Legged Parlay – +2500
No. 1 Las Vegas Aces Look To Sweep No. 4 Dallas Wings
Las Vegas looks to end Dallas’ 2023 playoff run after going up 2-0 in the series with a 91-84 victory on Sunday. A’ja Wilson led the Aces with 30 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, marking her third straight 30-point outing. She also became the first player in WNBA history to record 100 points and 10 blocks over a three-game span.
After dominating the first two games, the Aces travel to Arlington (TX) to face the Wings with tip set 9:30 p.m. (ET) at College Park Center. Las Vegas is favored by -6.5 points, with the over/under at 174.5 points. On the money line, the Aces are -285, while the Wings are +228.
WNBA Prediction
Las Vegas has won five of the six games this season against Dallas. The Wings’ only victory was a two-point victory in the team’s second meeting.
Meanwhile, each of Las Vegas’ victories has been by at least seven points. Dallas outscored Vegas 27-21 in the fourth quarter to get within double figures.
More importantly, the Wings don’t have an answer for Wilson. The only way that the Wings have a chance to keep it close is by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass.
I like Las Vegas to close out the series here. The Aces are 16-5 following a one-day break with a +9.0 point differential. Conversely, the Wings are 7-13 with a -3.0 point differential in games after one day off.
However, the traditional bet I like here is over 174.5 points. Las Vegas has been the WNBA’s top offense all season long, while Dallas was third. Both teams are averaging 90 points a game during the playoffs. While the Wings create offense from their defense, they struggle on that end overall. The Aces are shooting 50% from the field and 40% from the 3-point line in the first two games of the series.
Just like in the Connecticut game, my best bet here is Las Vegas to lead after the first quarter. The Aces have led each of their playoff games after the first quarter, averaging 24 points with a +8.0 scoring margin. Overall, the Aces first-quarter record is 8-1-1 over their last 10 contest.
Meanwhile, Dallas has trailed in each of their playoff games. The Sun have averaged 20.3 points during this stretch with a -6.3 scoring margin.
Moreover, Las Vegas has led Dallas after the first quarter in six straight meetings. The Aces have outscored the Wings by 37 points in the opening quarter during this stretch.
Best Bet: Las Vegas To Win First Quarter (-165)
Other Bets: Over 174.5 Points(-110)
Las Vegas Aces Over 90.5 Points (-115)
WNBA Player Props
A’ja Wilson Over 24.5 Points (-140) and Over 9.5 Rebounds (-130)
Arike Ogwumike Under 20.5 Points
Same Game Parlay
A’ja Wilson 20+Points
Arike Ogwumbike 15+ Points
Chelsea Gray +12 Points
Jackie Young +12 Points
Kelsey Plum +15 Points
Dallas Over 82.5 Points
Las Vegas Over 88.5 Points
7-Legged Parlay – +500
