Is the NCAA Transfer Portal Affecting Power Six Dominance in College Basketball?

Pure college basketball fans absolutely love the Cinderella runs of March Madness. The jury is still out, however, as to how they feel about the NCAA Transfer Portal. Early evidence seems to indicate that more FAU and Loyola Chicago types of runs are in store because of the Transfer Portal’s existence. Let’s take a closer look by examining the holy grail of NCAA college basketball metrics to see how the trend is curving in both the men’s and women’s game.

Is the NCAA Transfer Portal Changing College Basketball?

The NCAA Transfer Portal was established in October 2018. Fast forward to April 2021, the NCAA announced student-athletes could now transfer one time without a transfer play penalty. In other words, players could transfer one time in their college athletics experience and be able to play immediately the following season. Previously, a one-year ineligibility rule prohibited players from transferring and playing right away.

According to the official NCAA Transfer Portal data trends website:

• 78% of student-athletes transfer to another Division 1 school.
• April is the month the most student-athletes enter the portal.
• In 2021, 6876 undergrads and 3253 grads entered the Portal and actually transferred.
• In 2022, 8197 undergrads and 3705 grads entered the Portal and actually transferred.

It’s clear that the “play immediately” rule for a one-time transfer has caused student-athletes to feel more freedom to make a move. But how is the NCAA Transfer Portal affecting the balance of power among college basketball elites?

Who Are the Power Six Conferences?

In College Football, analysts talk about the Power Five Conferences. But in College Basketball, it’s actually the Power Six, with the addition of the Big East Conference, which hasn’t been strong traditionally in football but has in basketball. In fact, since 2010, the Big East has won five NCAA men’s basketball championships and five NCAA women’s basketball championships.

Here’s who’s included:

1. Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
2. Big Ten Conference
3. Big Twelve Conference
4. Pac-Twelve Conference
5. Southeastern Conference (SEC)
6. Big East Conference

Pondering the question of the NCAA Transfer Portal’s effect on college basketball made me take a close look back at the one metric most hallowed in college basketball.

Did the Transfer Portal Affect the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight?

Evaluating success in college basketball is most often defined by who made it past the first weekend of March Madness, the NCAA Tournament that happens for men’s and women’s basketball each Spring. If a team makes it past the first weekend, then they are listed among the “Sweet Sixteen.” If they win that round’s game, they are then listed among the Elite Eight.

Since the Transfer Portal was established in October 2018, its effect on March Madness would not have been seen until the 2020 tournament. Well, that tournament was canceled for the men and the women, due to the pandemic shutdown. So, I compared the outcomes from the NCAA Men’s and Women’s Basketball Tournaments for the five tournaments prior to 2020, 2015 through 2019, with the three tournaments after 2020, 2021 through 2023.

How Many Non-Power-Six Teams Played in the Second Weekend?

Ladies first. For the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament, here’s the data:

• Prior to the NCAA Transfer Portal, 7.5% of Sweet Sixteen participants were NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences. 92.5% of participants were Power Six teams.
• After the NCAA Transfer Portal, 4.17% of Sweet Sixteen participants were NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences.  95.83% of participants were Power Six teams.
• Prior to the NCAA Transfer Portal, 2.5% of Elite Eight participants were NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences. 97.5% of participants were Power Six teams.
• After the NCAA Transfer Portal, 0% of Elite Eight participants were NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences. All participants were Power Six teams.

For the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, here’s the data:

• Prior to the NCAA Transfer Portal, 10% of Sweet Sixteen participants were NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences. 90% of participants were Power Six teams.
• After the NCAA Transfer Portal, 12.5% of Sweet Sixteen participants were NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences.  87.5% of participants were Power Six teams.
• Prior to the NCAA Transfer Portal, 10% of Elite Eight participants were NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences. 90% of participants were Power Six teams.
• After the NCAA Transfer Portal, 20.83% of Elite Eight participants were NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences. 79.17% of participants were Power Six teams.

Early Evidence Indicates the NCAA Transfer Portal is Affecting Power Six Dominance for NCAA Men’s Basketball, but NOT for the Women.

Without digging in much deeper, simple data analysis indicates four interesting trends since the establishment of the NCAA Transfer Portal:

1. Power Six dominance is diminishing for Men’s College Basketball.
2. There’s a 2x increase of teams in the Men’s Elite Eight NOT from one of the Power Six Conferences.
3. Power Six dominance has stayed relatively the same with a slight increase for Women’s College Basketball.
4. No team from outside one of the Power Six Conferences has made it to the Women’s Elite Eight.

How Will NCAA Conference Realignment Affect These Trends?

Next year, the game of Musical Conferences begins. The shuffling of teams from one conference to another ensues, and analysts have been vocal about it. Will it be much ado about nothing, or like the NCAA Transfer Portal, will it actually have an affect on NCAA athletics? It will be interesting to see whether the power of the Portal can continue to wield itself, in spite of what critics suggest will give an even more unfair advantage to the Power Six Conference schools. Time will tell.

For Now, May the Portal’s Power Increase

As mentioned at the top, disparity in college basketball is always welcomed by the pure college basketball fanatic. If the above trends offer any indication of the NCAA Transfer Portal creating a less familiar field of competition, then more power to the Portal!

Who knows?!? Maybe the Men’s Elite Eight will one day be Florida Atlantic, Loyola Chicago, San Diego State, Princeton, Gonzaga, UConn, Arkansas, and Duke.

If so, would you still be watching?