The 2023 FIBA World Cup semifinals are less than 7 hours away. Canada (5-1), ranked 15th in the world, faces Serbia (5-1), sixth in the rankings, in the first game with tip set at 4:45 a.m. (ET). The second game is second-ranked USA (5-1) against No. 11 Germany, the only unbeaten team left in the tourney, with tip set for 8:30 a.m. (ET).
2023 FIBA World Cup Semifinals: Betting Picks, Parlays & Player Props
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I disclosed in my Wednesday article, as a four-parlay pick, that I liked Canada and the USA to win via the money line. While I still like both teams to win and advance, there is only value in betting the spread as Canada is -240, and the U.S. is -550 on the money line. Canada is a 5.5-point point favorite (-115), and the USA is a – 10.5 favorite (-115). Since I believe both games will be competitive, I will pass on the points spread, though I still lean toward Germany only because Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner possess the size upfront that gives the Americans problems. However, they are not the rebounding wizards that Lithuania and Montenegro’s frontcourt is.
I am going to pass on betting either game straight up, there are a couple of parlays you could bet if so inclined. I am considering a Canada (ATS) and USA (moneyline) parlay listed at +121 odds. Now, if you choose a cover parlay any team you choose to cover, you get +225 odds.
FIBA Best Bets
Serbia vs. Canada
Best Bet: Serbia +2.5 first-quarter points (-105)
Other Bet: Under 176.5 Points (-115)
There are two bets that I like in this Serbia vs. Canada matchup. The first one is under 178.5 points. With so much on the line, I expect both teams to come out tense and try not to fall behind early, as both teams have explosive offensives. Serbia and Canada have a limited amount of experience in pressure situations.
The Serbian national team has had 11 medals in World Cup, Olympic, and EuroBaskets competitions but none since 2017. Serbia won silver at the 2017 EuroBaskets and 2014 World Cup. Meanwhile, Canada hasn’t finished on the podium since 2015 in the Pan Am games (silver) and the FIBA Americas (bronze).
Serbia and Canada have shown the ability to get after it defensively. Both teams like to force turnovers and use that end of the floor to create offense. Serbia held Lithuania, a veteran and efficient offensive team, to 42.9% shooting from the field and nine 3-points at a 32.1% clip. Canada’s defense was also good against Slovenia, holding them to under 39% shooting, and was extremely tough on Luka Doncic, who needed 21 shots to tally 29.
Moreover, four of Canada’s six World Cup games and five of their last eight have finished with fewer than 176.5 points. Over Serbia’s previous 10 games, an average of 172 points have been totaled. Four of Serbia’s six FIBA World Cup games have finished under 176 points, and six of their last eight overall.
By the same token, Canada has a habit of getting off to a slow start. However, they did score 26 points versus a weak, defensive Slovenian squad. Still, the Canadians didn’t cover the 2.5-point spread, as Slovenia put up 24. Canada has a 4-6-1 record in the opening quarter in the first quarter. With the minus-2.5 point record, they are 3-8 in their last 11.
Serbia is 8-2 straight up in the first quarter over their last 10. The Serbians are 9-1 with the +2.5 hand.
United States vs. Germany
Best Bet: Germany Under 84.5 Points (-120)
There are several bets I like here. However, I am not sure about Germany. The Germans are a talented and deep team, especially on the offensive end, though not as deep or good as the U.S. So, my guess is that the Germans will try to be extremely physical with the Americans and slow the pace down, thus “mucking up the game.” Therefore, I’m going with under 84.5 points for Germany, as the Americans’ length and athleticism will give Germany’s shooters issues.
Team USA can defend all over the court. Jalen Brunson’s physicality and Tyrese Haliburton’s speed and quick hands will give Dennis Schroder load problems. Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart are capable of locking down Franz Wagner. Plus, the Germans do not possess the size or rebounding ability to control the glass like Montenegro and Lithuania did.
The U.S. limited Italy to 31% shooting from the field in the quarterfinals and allowed 77 points a game during World Cup play. Lithuania was the only team to score 85 points against the U.S., and they tallied 110.
Player Props
Bogdan Bogdanovic Under 19.5 Points (-115)
Marko Gururic Under 9.5 Points (-115)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 8.5 Points (-115)
Stefan Jovic Under 6.5 Points (-135)
Austin Reaves Under 11.5 Points (-135)
Franz Wagner Under 15.5 Points (-115)
Mikal Bridges Over 11.5 Points (-115)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 Rebounds (-120)
RJ Barrett Under 5.5 Rebounds (-135)
Josh Hart Over 4.5 Rebounds (-115)
Dennis Schroder Under 6.5 Assists
Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 Assists (-115)
