The 2023 FIBA World Cup final four is set, with Canada and Germany advancing earlier today with wins. Canada (5-1) will now play Serbia (5-1) and Germany (6-0) will take on Team USA (5-1).
Although the semifinals won’t take place until Friday, there is still action tomorrow, with things still left to be decided. First up on Thursday will be Italy (4-2) vs. Latvia (4-2) (4:30 a.m. ET) with Lithuania (5-1) vs. Slovenia (4-2) following at 8:40 a.m. (ET). All four teams will play on Saturday with the winners playing for 5th-6th place while the losers will play for 7th and 8th place.
2023 FIBA World Cup Betting Picks: Parlays and Player Props
4-Legged Win Parlay: +524
Even though the Classification stage in Thursday and the semifinals are on Friday, there is some money to be made by combining all four games. The four picks are Italy (ATS), Lithuania (ATS), Canada (ML) and USA (ML).
Italy (-1.5) Over Latvia
Latvia is the better team here. However, I like Italy (-122) to win here. Latvia is coming off an emotionally draining two-point loss (81-79) to Germany on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Italy was totally overwhelmed by the U.S. on Thursday (100-64).
I’m siding with the Italians because they had a day off while Latvia is playing back-to-back. Europeans are used to playing back-to-back games, and the World Cup is a draining event as every game essentially is an elimination game. I also expect Simone Fontecchio, Nicolo Melli, and Stefano Tonut to provide just enough offense to push Italy over the top.
Lithuania (-6.5) vs. Slovenia
The main reason I’m going with Lithuania over Slovenia is similar to why I went with Italy over Latvia. Lithuania also should come out on fire after being manhandled by Serbia in their Quarterfinal game on Thursday. Meanwhile, Slovenia went toe-to-toe with Canada, but the Canadians seized control in the second half.
While the extra day of rest gives Lithuania a slight edge, the Lithuanians are too explosive offensively, big, and deep for a one-dimensional Slovenian squad. Germany and Canada have also exposed Slovenia’s defensive inadequacies over the past two contests.
Canada (-205) vs. Serbia
I expect this game to be fantastic, and I will dig into the game more on Thursday night. But Canada’s overall depth and NBA talent will ultimately be dfferance as the Canadians reach the gold medal game for the first time. Canada’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the leading candidate to be named MVP of the candidate.
Germany vs. USA (-550)
This semifinal contest has more overall talent than Serbia-Canada. However, Team USA proved versus Italy that they are the most talented team in the tourney 1 through 12. The U.S. defeated Germany 99-91 in a World Cup matchup despite falling behind by 18 points in the first half.
I expect this to be a very competive game and am leaning towards taking Germany and the 10.5 points. But more on that on Thursday. Still, I expect the U.S. to win by at least eight and the game not to be as dramatic as the first one.
Same Game FIBA Parlay
Mindaugas Kuzminskas Over 9.5 Points and Over 3.5 rebounds: +190
FIBA Player Props
Davis Bertans Over 13.5 Points (-135)
Stefano Tonut Over 10.5 Points (+100)
Nicolo Melli Over 8.5 Points (+100)
Ignas Brazdeikas Over 10.5 Points (-120)
Klemen Prepelic Under 2.5 3-pointers (+100)
