The 2023 FIBA World Cup enters the knockout stage, with international powerhouses taking center stage. No. 8 Lithuania (5-0), the only undefeated remaining team in the tournament, and N0. 6 Serbia (4-1) open up the two-game August 5 slate. The second game features the second-ranked United States (4-1) looking to bounce back from its first lone loss in the tournament against No. 8 Italy (4-1).
Lithuania vs. Serbia FIBA World Cup Quarterfinals: Best Bets, Parlays and Player Props
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This matchup between European powerhouses should be entertaining and competitive. Serbia and Lithuania are meeting for the eighth time since 2009, with the Serbians picking up four wins and the Lithuanians collecting three victories. Serbia has won two straight matchups, with the last meeting in 2019.
Game Details
Time: 4:45 am ET
Place: Manilla, Philippines
Spread: Lithuania -1.0 (-115)
Money Line: Lithuania -120; Serbia -110
Over/Under: 169.5
About Serbia
Despite being without NBA champion Nikola Jokic, Serbia has been excellent at the World Cup. Serbia bounced back from a two-point second-round loss to Italy by crushing Karl-Anthony Towns’ led Dominican Republic 112-79 to secure their spot into the Quarterfinals. This is the Serbians’ fourth appearance in the World Cup knockout stage.
Serbia is 8-2 over its last 10 games, with both setbacks being narrow losses to Italy. Six of their wins have been by double figures.
Serbia likes to push the tempo and uses its defense to create offense. Led by Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nikola Milutinov, and Nikola Jovic, the Serbians are an excellent shooting team and get to the basket often. They share the ball well and don’t turn the ball over a ton.
Serbia is the most efficient offensive team in the World Cup. The Serbians average 100.4 points with shooting splits of .550/.375/.805. They average 28.6 assists, 35.6 rebounds (7.6 offensive), and 11.4 turnovers. Ten players average at least six points a game, including six who score over nine.
Defensively, Serbia allows 76 points a game while holding opponents to 35.5% shooting from the field. But Serbia has struggled guarding the 3-point line, with opponents averaging 11.6 treys a game at a 32.4% clip.
About Lithuania
Lithuania hoped the 2023 World Cup would be their return to international presence. Lithuania, which didn’t qualify for the 2020 Olympics and finished ninth in the 2019 World Cup, has reeled off eight straight victories. This streak includes an impressive 110-104 win over the United States the last time out.
Lithuania is an experienced, well-balanced, and deep club with NBA talent up front. The Lithuanians also can really shoot the ball. Jonas Valanciunas, Rokas Jokubaitis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, and Donatas Motiejunas lead the way.
Lithuania is the third-highest scoring team in the World Cup at 96.5 points a game, with shooting splits of .538/.464/.766. The Lithuanians also pass the ball well and are an excellent rebounding squad. However, they can get a little sloppy with the ball (14.6 turnovers). Ten players have appeared in all five World Cup games and average at least five points a game, including five who contribute nine or more points.
Defensively, Lithuania allows 75 points a game, with opponents shooting 40.2% from the field and 27.6% from the 3-point line. Lithuania only forces a few turnovers.
Prediction
This game is a tossup, as the betting line indicates. However, I like Lithuania to come out on top in a high-scoring affair.
Both teams are among the most efficient offensive teams at the World Cup. As long as Lithuania can limit turnovers, they have two things that have given Serbia problems are tournament long. Bigs who can rebound and score around the hoop (Valanciunas, Motiejunas, Kuzminskas) and plenty of shooters. Lithuania, which made 14 treys against the USA, averages nearly 12 3-pointers a game, as five players have knocked down seven or more triples during the tournament. Plus, Lithuania is better defensively. Serbia also has yet to face a team the size of Lithuania or team that hits the glass like they do.
Best Bet: Over 169.5 Points (-115)
Same Game Parlay (+265): Lithuania (-1.5) and Over 169.5
Another option is to take Lithuania on the money line, but you get a little better odds by giving up the half-point as the Lithuanians must win by at least one point.
Player Props
Donatas Motiejunas Over 6.5 Points (-135)
Motiejunas is a good scorer around the basket and averages nearly six shots a game. The 7-footer, who can step out behind the 3-point line, has scored at least seven points in four straight games.
Ignas Brazdeikas Over 10.5 Points (-115)
Brazdeikas averages 22 minutes of playing time and nearly nine shots a game. Brazdeikas, who has scored in double-figures in the last two contests, has totaled 29 points over the previous two contests — tallying 11 against the USA and 18 versus Greece.
Nikola Milutinov Over 13.5 Points (-105)
Milutinov will have to have a big game if Serbia is going to have any chance of winning. The 7-footer has a good matchup against Valanciunas and is very efficient around the rim. He also averages four free throws a game.
Marko Guduric Under 9.5 Points (-130)
Nikola Jovic Under 3.5 Rebounds (-160)
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 3.5 Rebounds (+100); Over 4.5 Assists (+100): Under 2.5 3-pointers (+110)
Tadas Sedekerskis Over 4.5 Rebounds (-145)
Stefan Jovic Over 5.5 Assists (-155)
Eimantas Bendzius Over 1.5 3-pointers (-120)
Vanja Marinkovic Over 1.5 3-pointers (-120)
Other Best Bets
Lithuania Over 85.5 Points (-105)
Over 84 total First Half Points (-115)
