The 2023 FIBA World Cup is about to enter its single-elimination stage. But before getting there, the final game of the Round of 16 matches will take place, with plenty of things to be settled on September 3.
2023 FIBA World Cup: Best Bets, Legged Parlay and Player Props
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Of the four groups of four teams in the World Cup Round of 16, Group J and Group K are the ones that are semi-settled. The winner of the United States (4-0) and Lithuania (4-0) will determine the winner of Group J. The winner of Slovenia (4-0) and Germany (4-0) will earn the top spot in Group K. All four teams have secured their place in the Quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, all four teams in Group I and L are still alive. However, only the winners of the two Sunday games will advance to the Quarterfinals. In Group I, Serbia (3-1) faces the Dominican Republic (3-1), and Italy (3-1) takes on Puerto Rico (3-1). In Group L, it is Canada (3-1) vs. Spain (3-1) and Brazil (3-1) vs. Latvia (3-1).
Best Bets
Georgia vs. Australia
This Group G game in Okinawa, Japan, is surprisingly meaningless as FIBA’s third-ranked team, Australia (2-2), which has been an enormous disappointment, and No.32 Georgia (2-2) have been eliminated. Both teams are coming off losses the last time out, with Australia falling to Slovenia (91-80) and Georgia getting run over by Germany (100-73).
Australia is favored by 13.5 points. While I like the Australians to win the game, as they are the more talented squad, Georgia will be no pushover. San Antonio forward Sandro Mamukelashvili was fantastic against Germany. Tornike Shengelia and Orlando Magic center Goga Bitazde can cause Australia problems.
However, I really like the Under (168.5 points). The point total has fallen from 169.5 points since the opening line. Georgia has not been very efficient offensively and plays at the slowest pace of the teams in the World Cup. Georgia, who averages 73.8 points a game, shoots 43.5% from the field. Neither they nor Australia are good 3-point shooting teams.
Moreover, the teams totaled 167 points in their matchup in World Cup prep games. Three of Georgia’s last four games have gone under the point total. In the previous 10 games, the average total of Australian games was 165, while the average score of Australia’s contests was 159.
Best Bet: Under 168.5 Points (-112)
Italy vs. Puerto Rico, First Quarter
This “do or die” game in Manilla has the potential to be fabulous. Both teams have won two straight and are coming off upset wins, with Puerto Rico defeating the Dominican Republic and Italy earning a victory over Serbia.
Italy, ranked 10th in the World, is the more experienced and talented squad, led by Utah Jazz forward Simone Fontecchio. Point guard Marco Spissu and ex-NBA’er Nicolo Melli. Meanwhile, former NBA point guard Tremont Waters leads Puerto Rico, ranked 20th.
Italy is favored by 8.5 points, with the Over/Under set at 170.5 points. While I like Italy to win and advance, I will pass on these two bets because Puerto Rico is so explosive offensively. Puerto Rico has been one of the better shooting teams in the World Cup.
Instead, I like Italy (-2.5) in the first quarter. The Italians have led three of their four World Cup games in the first quarter and a +12 overall in the opening quarter. Meanwhile, Puerto Rico has trailed after the opening 10 minutes in seven of their last 10 contests and are a -5 during World Cup play. China and the Dominican Republic (twice) are the only teams they have held a first-quarter lead against during this stretch. They trailed Italy by nine after one period earlier this year.
Best Bet: Italy (-2.5) first quarter (-125)
Montenegro Over Greece
Montenegro (2-2) and Greece (2-2) have already been eliminated. Montenegro is the more talented team here, led by Nikola Vucevic and Kendrick Perry, as the Greeks are without two-thirds of the Antetokounmpo trio. Montenegro gave the United States all it could handle in their last game before succumbing late. Meanwhile, Greece was competitive against Lithuania in the first half before the floodgates opened up for the Lithuanians in the second half. Team USA manhandled Greece during first-round action.
Best Bet: Montenegro (-2.5) -115
Slovenia (+5.5) Over Germany
This elimination game should be one of the best of the night and is the favorite for an upset. Both teams enter in good form, with Slovenia winning five straight and Germany on a four-victory streak. Slovenia is a 5.5-point underdog despite having the best player in the tournament, Luka Doncic. Former NBA center Mike Tobey has played well during the tournament, and I’m not sure the Germans have anyone who can match up against the physical big man.
Slovenia took both games from Germany during World Cup Qualifying by 14 points. Slovenia has won three of the last four matchups since 2020 and four of six overall.
Best Bet: Slovenia (+5.5) -115.
Lithuania (+14.0 Points) Over United States
Team USA is clearly the best and deepest team in the tournament. I expect the Americans to remain undefeated. However, Montenegro gave the U.S. all they could handle due to their offensive rebounding prowess and the play of Vucevic. The Lithuanians are more capable offensively and well-rounded than Montenegro, and they have Jonas Valanciunas anchoring the middle.
The USA has won nine straight games, and Lithuania has won seven consecutive contests. However, the U.S. is just 2-3 ATS in their last five matches, while Lithuania is 5-0 ATS during the same stretch. Moreover, the line has dropped from Lithuania, being listed as a +16.5 underdog.
Best Bet: Lithuania (+14) -112
Parlay
Italy (-355) Over Puerto Rico
Italy has defeated Puerto Rico seven times, including 97-65 in a prep game leading up to the World Cup.
Montenegro (-142) Over Greece
Slovenia vs. Germany Over 43.5 Points First Quarter Points (-115)
Slovenia and Germany are both offensive juggernauts, with Doncic and Dennis Schroder being the catalysts for their respective clubs. Both teams have been fast starters, so I like the first-quarter point total.
Slovenia scored 28 points in the opening 10 minutes in their last victory over Australia. They average nearly 25 points in the opening quarter during the World Cup and have tallied 24 or more points in eight of their previous 10 contests. Slovenia and their opponent have produced at least 44 points in the first period nine times during this 10-contest stretch.
Meanwhile, Germany scored 22 points in their victory over Georgia during the first quarter, their first-period average during World Cup play. The German’s four most recent games against top competition have scored at least 41 points in the first period.
Brazil (-2) Over Latvia (-130)
Brazil is the more talented and athletic team here. They also have an excellent defensive squad.
4-Legged Parlay (+672)
