The 2023 FIBA World Cup is set to begin on August 25th in the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia, with 32 teams. Spain is the defending tournament champion. The gold medal in 2019 was the Spaniards’ second this century, though they have just medaled twice in the FIBA World Cup. Spain’s victory snapped the USA’s two-tournament win streak in the event. Argentina was second in 2019, followed by France and Australia.
2023 FIBA World Cup Best Futures Bets: Champion and Group Winners,
While Team USA struggled to a seventh-place finish in China, they bounced back nicely to win gold at the 2020 Olympics. The Americans have 12 career medals in the FIBA World Cup, with five golds and three silvers. Brazil is second among teams still in existence, with six medals.
Best Bet: FIBA World Cup Champions: USA – 125
Team USA went 5-0 in their tuneup games, with Germany being the only team that gave the Americans any problems. The U.S. also defeated Spain by 10 in a tuneup affair while winning their other three contests by 20 or more points.
With Giannis and Kostas Antetokounmpo not playing for Greece, the U.S. should coast to the top seed in Group C. New Zealand and Greece are the other teams in the group. If the U.S. advances to the second round, they would be prepared with two of Group D’s teams, likely Lithuania and either Montenegro or Mexico. While Lithuania has a history of being competitive, they shouldn’t be any match for the Americans this year.
Canada, Australia, Germany, Spain, and France are next in line. Serbia could be seen as a dark horse.
All odds are from DraftKings.
Group Best Bets
Group A: Winner Italy -165, To Advance: Pass
Italy (-165) is the clear favorite in Group A. The world’s 10th-ranked team enters the World Cup in fantastic form. The Italians went 7-0 in World Cup tuneup games with solid victories over Serbia, Greece, and Brazil are an experienced team.
Italy is an experienced club with several key members playing together for years. Utah Jazz forward Simone Fontecchio leads the way for the Italians, who are tough defensively. Matteo Spagnolo and Nicolo Melli are other key players.
Italy has never lost to any team in Group A. The Philippines and Angola pose no threat to the Italians. However, the Dominican Republic is fascinating, with Karl-Anthony Towns now in the mix, which is why I like the Dominicans to advance to round two.
The Dominican Republic advanced to the second round in the 2019 FIBA World Cup and defeated Argentina twice in the qualification process for this year’s event. While the D.R. went 1-4 in tuneup games, all five games were against quality opponents. They were 1-1 with Towns in the lineup with an impressive victory over Canada.
Besides Towns, the Dominicans have considerable talent. Lester Quinones, L.J. Figueroa, Jean Montero, and Angel Delgado are also on the roster. The Domicans are -650 to advance since there is no value, so you should pass.
Group B – To Win: Pass, To Advance to Second Round: South Sudan (+175)
Serbia is a heavy favorite (-2500) and the group’s cream of the crop despite Nikola Jokic and Vlasilije Micic being unavailable for the FIBA World Cup. However, Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic leads a balanced group of veteran players, including NBA’ers Nikola Jovic and Filip Petrusev.
South Sudan (+175) is the upstart program in the group and arguably the tournament. The South Sudanese will have a good idea of how they stack up in the first game of group play as they face Puerto Rico. Besides Serbia, Puerto Rico (-145) is the favorite in the group to advance to round two.
But I like South Sudan’s value and roster better. Former Chicago Bull Luol Deng has assembled a team featuring Carlik Jones, Maryiol Shayak, and Wenyen Gabriel.
South Sudan set an African qualification record by posting an 11-1 record. They also went 3-2 in tuneup games, losing by 10 to Brazil and 21 to Australia.
Group C: Winner: Pass, To Advance: Pass
The United States (-2500) is the clear favorite and should coast to their group title. Second place is expected to be determined in the last group of games when Greece (-1600) and New Zealand (+800) square off. Neither squad has a lot going for them, and this could be a toss-up. Greece won the team’s lone meeting, defeating New Zealand 103-97 behind a massive double-double by Giannis Antetokounmpo.
There is no value in taking Greece to advance. So, the only alternative is to take New Zealand. But I’m not sure that New Zealand is better than Egypt.
Group D: Winner: Lithuania (-250), To Advance: Pass
Lithuania is a moderate favorite (-250) to win Group D. The Lithuanians, 27-14 all-time in the FIBA World Cup, have struggled in international events lately. They missed the Quarter-Finals at EuroBasket 2017, the 2019 World Cup, and EuroBasket in 2022. In addition, they didn’t qualify for the Olympics in 2022.
But Lithuania is an experienced team featuring Jonas Valanciunas, Rokas Jokubaitis, Ignas Brazdeikis, Deividas Sirvydis, and Mindaugas Kuzminskas. Lithuania went 9-2 in World Cup tuneup games, closing the exhibition schedule with four straight wins. Lithuania split games against France and Finland. They closed the exhibition tour with a 96-69 victory over Latvia.
Montenegro (-700 to advance) has the tallest roster in the World Cup, with Nikola Vucevic, Bojan Doblevic, and Marko Simonovic leading the way. Vladimir Mihailovic and Kendric Perry give Montenegro a formable backcourt. Montenegro went 2-4 in tuneup games.
Mexico (+400) doesn’t have any NBA players. However, the Mexican roster is loaded with explosive, quick guards, and plenty of shooters. Mexico went 9-1 in World Cup tuneup games with two wins over Argentina, with their loss coming to Jordan.
While Montenegro is better than Mexico, there is no value in taking them to advance. So, if you believe in Team Mexico, you get four times your money if they advance. I’m going to pass.
Group E: Winner: Germany +175, To Advance: Pass
Group E is one of the two toughest groups in the World Cup. Australia and Germany are clearly the favorites, with both teams with a loaded roster. Australia ranked No.3 in the World Rankings, went 5-0 in tuneup games, with their big victory coming against France. Meanwhile, 11th-ranked Germany went 4-2 in those games. The Germans split with Canada. They also led the U.S. by 16 in the third quarter before falling to the Americans by eight.
Australia is a favorite at -175, while Germany is listed at +175. Both teams should advance to the second round. I’m leaning slightly towards taking Germany with Franz and Mo Wagner, Dennis Schroder, and Daniel Theis. Neither Australia nor Germany are worth a bet to qualify as they have odds at -2000 and -650.
Group F : Winner: Pass, To Advance: Georgia (-240)
Slovenia (-2500) is the top dawg in the group, as they are led by Luka Doncic. The No.7 team in the FIBA rankings lost Vlatko Cancar during World Cup tuneup games, where they had their up-and-downs. Still, they should be able to take first in the group.
