Consecutive stress fractures in his left foot sidelined TJ Warren for almost two full seasons. Warren looked like a budding star with the Indiana Pacers after breaking out in the Covid-19 bubble. After grueling rehab, Warren returned to the NBA with the Brooklyn Nets last season and understandably showed some rust. Many teams will see Warren as a value signing in free agency this summer, hoping his play returns to his career norms as he’s another year removed from surgery. The former 14th overall pick will likely have a decent market as NBA Free Agency kicks off next month.
TJ Warren Free Agent Profile
Background
A first-round pick by the Phoenix Suns in 2014, Warren established himself in his third season. In 67 games, he started 59 and averaged 14.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. The Suns invested in the rising star’s future by signing him to a four-year, $50 million extension in September 2021.
Following the 2017-18 season, the contract looked like a great investment. In 65 games (all starts), Warren averaged 19.6 points and 5.1 rebounds. Warren kept up his production the following year despite missing time with injuries.
The Suns traded the wing to the Indiana Pacers in June 2019 in a deal meant to create cap space. Warren called the deal “disrespectful” and clearly used it as motivation to shine with the Pacers.
“When I heard about the trade, it didn’t throw me off, but like any other player (felt) a certain way about it,” Warren told TNT.”It’s very disrespectful. I know how much work I’ve put in, how much time I’ve put into the game. To see me get traded for that? No player wants to be traded for cash.”
In his first year in Indiana, Warren played in 67 games (all starts), averaging 32.9 minutes, 19.8 points, and 4.2 rebounds per game. He even shot 40.3 percent from three. The 6’8″ sharpshooter thrived in the Covid-19 “bubble” but, unfortunately, would only play four games in the following two seasons.
Warren signed with the Nets as a free agent in July 2022 and made his debut that December. A few months later, Warren was traded to the Suns alongside Kevin Durant.
Strengths
It’s fair to believe that the biggest positive about last year is the fact that he played. Teams might not look too closely at his stats, considering what he’s been through. Next year will be Warren’s age-30 season. With another year removed from his recovery, Warren is young enough to bounce back and produce at levels closer to his track record.
However, there are positives in Warren’s on-court play that teams can look at. Warren showed an ability to create off the dribble last year and shoot off the catch. He also was a closer for Phoenix during the playoff series against the Denver Nuggets. Furthermore, Warren produced his best rebounding season last year with a career-high 13.8 rebound percentage.
He also has a history of being an efficient shooter. In the four seasons before the 2020-21 campaign, Warren averaged 17.9 points per game. In the two seasons before that campaign, he shot 44% on corner threes while shooting at least 40 percent overall from behind the arc in three seasons of his career.
Overall, Warren is a 35.4 percent three-point shooter, averaging 14.6 points and four rebounds a game. So, while his production dropped last year, there’s enough youth and track record for teams to find hope in. Warren represents a great low-risk, high-reward free agent option.
Weaknesses
Warren looked rusty in 42 games last year. He averaged 7.5 points and 16.4 minutes per game. His 3-point shooting slumped to 32.8%, and he was noticeably slow on defense.
Additionally, Warren dealt with foot injuries prior to missing almost two seasons. Though there’s upside in his game, there’s no guarantee that he will reach his potential. His struggles last season might have been direct results of the injuries he’s dealt with throughout his career, and that’s all that should be expected from him. Injuries have ruined careers before, and maybe this is another case of that.
Teams looking to win now might prefer signing a player with fewer question marks. There’s value in consistency and predictability, and that’s not what Warren offers right now. Also, contending teams are often operating with not much financial flexibility. The money those teams have left to spend is precious enough that they might want to spend it on more of a sure deal.
Potential Fits
The Cleveland Cavaliers reportedly considered signing Warren as a free agent last year before he joined the Nets. The team still needs wing depth and has little to spend before hitting the luxury tax. Also, the Cavs want to win but are not necessarily top contenders in the East right now. Perhaps Warren signing for cheap and producing a great comeback season is enough of a wild card that raises the team’s ceiling and makes them a bigger threat in the East.
A young team like the Sacramento Kings could be a good fit for Warren. The wing might benefit from joining a squad that already has young talent to lean on. Warren won’t be relied on to be a playmaker but rather a guy off the bench that sparks the offense. Additionally, young teams tend to be inconsistent. If the Kings take a step back next year, but Warren produces well, he could become a trade chip at the deadline.
The Golden State Warriors don’t have money to spend, especially if Draymond Green returns. With no money to spend but around three holes to fill, Golden State is looking at players on minimum deals, just like Warren. New GM Mike Dunleavy told reporters that the team is looking for veterans who fit into rotations and can shoot.
Mike Dunleavy on Warriors entering free agency
* Cleared roster spots for "bullets in free agency"
* Only have minimums. "Looking to add veteran players who can fit into rotation."
* Shooting/two-way ability "a premium"
* "It's obvious we need to add some size" pic.twitter.com/e5kdWIOBWi— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) June 23, 2023
Warren fits a Warriors need, both financially and roster-wise. The Warriors are also one of the better teams to help Warren get his shooting back on track to his peak levels or better.
