Imagine turning down a one-year salary worth $40.4 million. Well, that became a reality for Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton on Wednesday. The three-time All-Star opted-out of his deal to search for a long-term deal in free agency. Bucks general manager Jon Horst publicly expressed the team’s desire to bring Middletown back, but anything can happen in NBA Free Agency.
Khris Middleton Free Agent Profile
Background
Middleton experienced a frustrating 2022-23 campaign. He played only 33 games due to multiple stints with various knee and wrist injuries. Despite inconsistent performance down the stretch, Middleton averaged 15.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game last season. In his limited action, the 31-year-old played more than 30 minutes in a game only seven times and never played back-to-back.
Middleton is a key piece in the Bucks’ recent run of success which includes a championship. Milwaukee and Middleton have both expressed an interest in a reunion. However, Milwaukee does not have much money to spend this offseason and an extension with Middleton might push payroll to an uncomfortable level. There is logic in a potential Bucks mindset of moving on from a player in his thirties coming off an injury-riddled season. However, most expect losing Middleton to be catastrophic to the team with championship aspirations.
There are some reasons to expect Middleton to bounce back next year and beyond. First, look at his playoff performance. His game averages improved to 23.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game in five postseason contests. In the five-game series against the Miami Heat, Middleton averaged 34.6 minutes per game with a 46.5 percent field goal percentage and 40.5 percent three-point percentage.
Additionally, Middleton underwent a minor arthroscopic procedure in his right knee after Miami knocked Milwaukee out of the playoffs. The clean-up procedure addresses a knee issue that impacted Middleton all year. Middleton proved in the playoffs that there is still gas in his tank and will hope to bounce back with full health.
Strengths
For his career, Middleton has averaged 17 points a game, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. The 6’8” forward provides consistent shooting with a career 45.7 field goal percentage, 38.8 three-point percentage, and 88.2 percent from the line. He also averaged over 20 points a game in four out of the previous five seasons before last year’s injury-filled campaign.
If you want to see what impact Middleton has on a team, look at how the Bucks’ offense performed with him and without him. Middleton hurt his knee in December and didn’t return until late January. The offense struggled without him, ranking eighth worst in the league. After his return, the Bucks went on a run that resulted in winning 21 of 24 games. From his return on January 23 to March 17, the Bucks’ offense became seventh best in the league and fourth most efficient in the half-court.
The small forward free agent market is weak this year. Middleton represents the best available option and can leverage that into a big deal. It’ll be interesting to see how high his price goes if a bidding war occurs.
While Middleton does damage from the perimeter, he impacts a game with a toughness and willingness to battle for position. The tough player can impose his size on smaller players with his back to the basket.
Weaknesses
Perhaps that last strength could be a red flag for teams thinking of signing him. Middleton is a veteran player with a playing style that has put wear and tear on his legs. Teams can look at his injuries last year and think they’re a result of the impact he’s absorbed during his 11-year career. He’s been a great player in his career, but are teams going to be wary of committing big money to a player that might be entering a decline stage?
Potential Fits
The Bucks enter free agency as the front runners for Middleton. Milwaukee can’t afford him on a deal worth the $40.4 million he opted out of. However, he won’t get that on the open market. Many expect the two sides to work out a long-term deal at a lower annual average.
One omen for his return is that Middleton participated in the final interviews in the team’s head coach search. Only him and Giannis Antetokounmpo were privy to this and it’s a strong indicator of where both sides stand.
The Sacramento Kings could be a fit for the veteran. An up-and-coming team, Sacramento can use a winning player like Middleton to impact the young players. Middleton shines as a leader and can show teammates what it takes to win while providing great scoring, playmaking, and defense. He represents an upgrade over Harrison Barnes. Sacramento faces cap concerns but can clear space through trades.
Though a divorce from Milwaukee seems like a long shot, a young team looking for an identity can turn to Middleton. It’ll surely shake up the league, but that’s the beauty of NBA Free Agency.
