The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off one of the most disappointing postseasons in recent memory. With their first-round exit, the Bucks became the first No. 1 seed to lose to an eighth seed since 2011 when the Memphis Grizzlies upended the San Antonio Spurs. They were also the fifth top seed to get bounced in the opening round of the NBA playoffs. Now, the Bucks’ offseason becomes very interesting.
NBA Rumors: Bucks Have Tough Offseason Choices To Make, Likely To Be Active In Trade Market
Milwaukee won an NBA-high 58 regular season games, marking the fourth time in the last five seasons that they have won 50 games. It was the third time during this span that the Bucks won at least 56 contests. However, it was all for naught as they were upset by the Miami Heat in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs (4-1).
Bucks Offseason
Milwaukee enters the summer with several questions and potentially some big decisions. The first major decision will be who sits in the first chair, replacing Mike Budenholzer. The Bucks have cast a wide range of candidates for the job, reportedly expected to interview 13 coaches, with ex-Toronto Raptors boss Nick Nurse being the latest.
The Bucks have just eight players under contract for the upcoming season. Still, the Bucks are over the salary cap by $23 million with the eight players.
There is a caveat to the Bucks’ cap situation. Khris Middleton and Jevon Carter hold player options at $40.39 million and $2.29 million, respectively.
Brook Lopez and Joe Ingles are the Bucks’ key free agents. Jae Crowder, Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard, Wesley Matthews, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, and Jeff Teague are their other free agents. A.J. Green is a restricted free agent.
Milwaukee has just one draft pick in 2023, the 58th selection.
Milwaukee currently has four open roster spots. The Bucks ranked fourth in the league in offensive efficiency, despite turnovers and free-throw shooting being the major issues. While the Heat shredded the Bucks’ defense in the opening round of the playoffs, they were fourth in defensive rating during the regular season. Creating turnovers was their biggest defensive issue.
Backup point guard, wing help, and frontcourt depth are the Bucks’ most significant areas of need.
After selecting a new head coach, Bucks’ general manager Jon Horst will likely switch his focus to Middleton and Lopez. Horst spoke about the two players recently.
“It’s pretty clear, Khris and Brook are core to what we’ve done, who we are. I think very valued by us now and going forward,” Horst said. “They both have different decisions, but decisions in front of them. We have different options with these guys. What’s clear is we want to figure out a way to move forward with these guys.
Middleton has until June 21 to make his player option decision. Even though Lopez and Crowder will be unrestricted free agents, they are extension eligible before June 30 because of the size and length of their previous contracts.
Salary Cap Issues Loom, If Bucks Keep Lopez and Middleton
The NBA‘s recently instituted CBA will significantly affect how Milwaukee manages the offseason. The Bucks will be over the $134 million salary cap as they have over $90 million in cap holds. Being over the salary cap gives them tethers like Bird rights to a player and allows them to either go over the cap or offer more money to their own guys. The Bucks own Lopez, Crowder, and Antetokounmpo’s Bird rights.
The bigger issue for Milwaukee is the next salary cap step, the luxury tax. The Bucks are in-line to pay the luxury tax for the third straight year, so they must be mindful of the repeater penalties that will kick in if they top next season’s projected tax threshold of $162 million.
During his conversation about the Bucks coaching search, Horst told reporters that the Bucks’ ownership group has no problem becoming a “repeater” team.
“Each of these decisions in the NBA now are just so impactful and meaningful financially. You’re asking for capital to invest into a team and looking for returns and outcomes. They’re not always returns in terms of financial gain, but returns in success and in championships.
“One of the coolest, best parts of this job and this organization has been and will continue to be ownership’s willingness to commit and to spend. There’s not been a case yet where this team hasn’t spent to improve, sustain our position in terms of winning and competing for championships. With Wes Edens and Jimmy and Dee Haslam and Jamie Dinan now in charge, that’s going to remain the same.
It will be almost impossible for Milwaukee to avoid paying the tax in 2023-24 if Middleton opts in. Even if the 31-year-old wing declines the option, he and the Bucks could work out a multi-year deal. In that case, the Bucks would save money on Middleton’sfor the upcoming season.
However, Lopez is reportedly seeking an increase from the $13.9 million he made this past season. The 35-year-old center was runner-up in Defensive Player of the Year voting this past season. Overall, he turned in his best season in several years, compiling 15.9 points, 6.7 rebounds (2.0 offensive), and 1.3 assists. Lopez shot 53.1% from the field and made 1.7 threes at 37.4%.
Trade Options
If Milwaukee can keep both Lopez and Middleton, the Bucks’ players’ salary would reach $170.18 million in compensation for eight players — assuming Middleton opts and Lopez gets a slight annual increase to $15 million. In this case, the Bucks won’t be able to offer an outside, free agent more than a minimum contract, which is projected at $1.99 million, without going into the second apron. The next figure to be concerned about is $179.5 million, where the new second apron will begin.
Milwaukee would have some options to relieve some of this financial burden. The Athletic’s Eric Nehm mentioned Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Grayson Allen being trade candidates.
Portis is entering the second of a four-year, $48.5 million deal that will net him $11.71 million this upcoming campaign. The 28-year-old is coming off his second consecutive outstanding campaign for the Bucks. He was once again a very efficient scorer, outstanding on the boards, and shot the ball well from deep. Portis produced a career-high 38 triple-doubles this past season.
Connaughton, a 3-and-D wing, veteran contract extension, comes into effect this season with him slated to make $9.4 million in 2023-24. Connaughton is coming off a disappointing season. The 30-year-old averaged 7.6 points, compiling the worst shooting slash line since his rookie campaign at .392/.339/.659. Durability is also an issue, as 2017-18 was the last time Connaughton appeared in 70 contests.
Allen will make $8.9 million in the final year of his contract. The 27-year-old is a 3-point ace, averaging nearly two treys a game at almost a 40% clip. He is coming off a solid season and the best postseason, averaging 11.5 points with a shooting slash line of .463/.483/.857.
Moving Up In the Draft
While Milwaukee currently has one draft pick in the 2023 draft, they could move into the first round by packaging two of the above players or a future first-rounder. Something that Horst told the Milwaukee Jornal-Sentinal is a possibility.
“It’s not unforeseeable that we could acquire a first-round pick in some sort of deal that we execute prior to or at the draft, and they have to be ready for that. We obviously possess a pick at the end of the second round. We have to be ready for that. But also, the trades and things that happen from a personnel, an NBA personnel standpoint, be ready for that.”
The problem is Milwaukee doesn’t have much future draft capital. The Bucks don’t own their own first-round choice until 2028. They do a pick in the first round in 2024 and 2026, but the New Orleans Pelicans have the right to swap.
Hugo Besson
Bringing over Hugo Besson or trading the former number 56 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft is also possible. The 22-year old is coming off a solid campaign with the French club Metropolitans 92. Besson averaged 12.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 16 games while posting a career-best shooting slash line of .508/.356/.855.
