On Tuesday night, the Portland Trail Blazers were one of the big winners of the 2023 NBA draft lottery. Portland finished with the fifth-worst record in the NBA at 33-49, which meant that the Trail Blazers had just a 42% chance of moving up in the draft lottery. But the ping pong balls fell in the Blazers’ favor as they obtained the No. 3 overall selection, jumping the Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets. The Pistons and the Rockets had a 14% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick and a 51% chance of landing in the top four.
“You always want to win the whole thing, but again this comes in many shapes and sizes,” Blazers general manager Joe Cronin said. “But moving up to three is a big win for our organization.”
NBA Rumors: Portland Trail Blazers Look To Package No. 3 Pick and Anfernee Simons for Veteran Wing
How’d the Trail Blazers Got Here?
Since getting booted from the first round of the NBA playoffs for the second straight season in 2021, Portland has been in rebuild mode. The Trail Blazers have been mainly working to find a suitable backcourt mate for Damian Lillard. They have made six trades and selected Shaedon Sharpe with the seventh pick in last year’s draft.
While their 33 victories were six more than a season ago, Portland still had many issues. Injuries — Sharpe and Drew Eubanks were the only players to appear in at least 64 games — and lack of overall talent were the most apparent problems. Rebounding, playmaking, turnovers, and defense were also significant issues.
Lillard, Jerami Grant, and Anfernee Simons all produced one of the best seasons of their careers, if not the best. However, the trio missed a combined 83 games. Sharpe improved as the seasons progressed, although the 19-year-old still has a long way to go.
Portland used 24 players and 29 starting lineups. The Trail Blazers top starting lineup posted an 18-15 record.
Blazers Salary Cap Situation
Portland has 10 players under contract and projects to have around $13 million in cap space available. The Trail Blazers have some flexibility as Kevin Knox‘s $3 million contract is a club option. Trendon Watford and Jeenathan Wiliams are on nonguaranteed contracts. Jabari Walker is on a partial contract.
Portland does not have to decide on any of the four players until after the draft. While all four could return, Knox is the least likely, while Watford is the most likely. Watford has shown promising signs of being a reliable end-of-the-bench player and improved in year two of his development. Williams showed some scoring ability in his five-game cup of coffee with the Trail Blazers last year. However, Walker struggled after being selected with the 57th overall pick last season.
Speaking of the draft, the Trail Blazers own three selections with two picks in the first round. Besides the No. 3 overall pick, the Blazers also own the No. 23 pick (from New York) and No. 43.
They also have a few key free agents. Re-signing Grant (UFA) is believed to be a top priority, although several teams are also expected to make a run at the 29-year-old forward. Grant, who could get around $30 million annually in his new deal, produced one of the best seasons of his career in his first season with the Blazers, which included knocking down a personal-best 2.3 treys at a 40.1% clip.
Cam Reddish, Matisse Thybulle, Justise Winslow, and Eubanks could all return, but it will likely depend on what occurs on draft day. Reddish and Thybulle are restricted free agents.
What to Do With No. 3 Draft Pick?
Portland knows they have some work to do with its roster if they want to return to the playoffs. But the Trail Blazers brass believe that the window is still open as long as Lillard is still in the fold.
So, the Blazers have two choices: trade the No. 3 pick or deal Lillard. Locked On Blazers Podcast host Mike Richman disclosed the same sentiments on Wednesday.
“(Lillard is) the most powerful voice in the organization, pretty clearly. There is no world in which they make a selection at three and Damian Lillard is on the roster. If they make a selection at three, the era is over.”
For his part, Lillard is reportedly committed to the Blazers, per Nate Jones @JonesOnTheNBA.
I talk to Dame everyday. He talks to the front office every single day. His focus is on improving and what they need to do to be better in Portland. https://t.co/RlOIkKZDcn
— Nate Jones (@JonesOnTheNBA) May 18, 2023
The No. 3 pick projects to be either Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. Miller is expected to be selected by the Charlotte Hornets with the No. 2 pick.
While both players are expected to be all-stars, neither is a franchise-changer. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense for Portland to keep the pick.
As Yahoo Sports’ Jake Fischer writes, “The Blazers hold the hottest commodity. Charlotte jumping to the second pick, up from the fourth-best odds, brings an interesting dilemma and what some league personnel consider a suboptimal fit between Henderson and incumbent All-Star guard LaMelo Ball. That could very well lead the Hornets to choose (Brandon) Miller instead, which could allow Portland to hold a bidding war for teams hoping to acquire Henderson’s services.”
However, the No. 3 pick doesn’t possess the necessary value for the Trail Blazers to acquire the players they need to compete. So, the Blazers must package the selection with players like Simons and/or Jusuf Nurkic.
ESPN’s Zach Lowe also expects the Blazers to talk with the Chicago Bulls about renegotiating the protections on the first-round pick they owe them from the 2021 three-team trade in which they acquired Larry Nance Jr. The pick is lottery-protected every year through 2028 — restricting the Blazers’ ability to include picks in trades.
Who Would Be Interested In a Trade Package That Includes the No. 3 Overall Pick and Simons and/or Jurkic?
Simons is an electric scorer who has demonstrated he can carry a team offensively over the last two seasons. The athletic 23-year-old combo guard is at his best when attacking the hoop though he is a capable distributor and consistent 3-point shooter. Simons produced a career season with 21.1 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.6 rebounds with a shooting slash line of .447/.377/.894. He reached double-figures in 59 of his 62 contests, including 35 games of at least 20 points. Simons tossed in a career-high 45 points against Utah on December 3rd. However, defense is an issue.
Nurkic is a very serviceable center though the 28-year-old is very inconsistent. He is an excellent passer and rebounder. But Nurkic is injury prone — he has not played in 60 games in any of his last four seasons — and is not an efficient scorer.
Portland needs help at the wing and upfront. So, who could be interested in the 2023 No. 3 draft pick and Simons?
The Toronto Raptors, Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, and Houston Rockets immediately come to mind.
What Could the Trail Blazers Get In Return For Package?
Toronto has a lot of decisions to make themselves. The Raptors still need a coach, and they have a couple of key players with players options, Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. They are rumored to be interested in shopping OG Anunoby, who is the perfect 3-and-D wing that the Blazers are looking to add. The Raptors own the 13th pick in the draft.
Orlando could send a package of Jalen Suggs, the No. 6 and/or No. 11 draft pick in this year’s draft, and Wendell Carter Jr. Suggs is solid defensively and improved as a shooter last year. Meanwhile, Carter is a fabulous rebounder and a better shooter than Nurkic.
Utah doesn’t have much to offer except Jordan Clarkson and draft capital. So, maybe the Jazz can be involved in a three-team trade if the Blazers find Clarkson intriguing.
Washington has missed the playoffs in four of the last five years. So, the Wizards could be intrigued enough by Henderson to finally offer up Bradley Beal or perhaps a sign and trade for Kristaps Porzingis.
Indiana is coming off a surprising finish. Simons could be a perfect backcourt mate for Tyrese Haliburton. The Pacers could offer Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, and a couple of their five draft picks.
Houston really wants James Harden, so if they are able to get him on the open market. Simons could be a match to play alongside him. The Rockets own the fourth overall pick, and maybe Alperen Senguin and Kevin Porter Jr. may entice Portland to do something.
Mikal Bridges is a prize Nets player. Brooklyn needs big men, so maybe add Nurkic and Spencer Dinwiddie to the deal.
Chicago could offer up Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan.
