In an unexpected Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup, the New York Knicks are taking on the Miami Heat. In the first round, both teams pulled upsets with 4-1 victories. As their 1990s rivalry is rekindled, here are the three biggest questions in the Knicks-Heat series.
Three Questions for the Knicks-Heat Series
Can the Knicks Slow Down Playoff Jimmy?
Jimmy Butler was undeniably the star of the Heat-Milwaukee Bucks series. Milwaukee was unable to find an answer for containing the explosive “Playoff Jimmy,” who is averaging a league-most 37.6 PPG in the playoffs so far. The 33-year-old shot a very efficient 59.7% across five matches, including a historic 56-point outing on 67.9% shooting in Game 4.
Against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Knicks did an excellent job at limiting Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. They restricted Cleveland to converting just 44.9% of their shots from the field and 32.7% from beyond the arc. New York currently has the best defensive rating in the playoffs, allowing 101.9 points per 100 possessions. Overall, their defense has been suffocating, primarily thanks to Mitchell Robinson’s rim protection (9.8 RPG and 2.2 BPG), Quentin Grimes’ perimeter defending, Josh Hart’s hustle, and Jalen Brunson’s forced turnovers (2.2 SPG). Against the Bucks, Miami displayed hot shooting. They’re hitting a league-best 51.9% of their shots from the field and 45% from deep. However, this high level of efficiency may not be maintainable.
As Miami’s main source of offense, figuring out how to contain Butler will be crucial to winning this series. The key to slowing him down lies in paint and three-point defense. Against the Bucks, he shot 75.4% inside and 44.4% from deep. The Knicks will also need to set up traps and watch out for his playmaking abilities. Grimes and Hart will likely be Butler’s primary defenders. In the regular season, New York did a solid job at limiting Butler, who averaged 22.5 PPG on 49.1% shooting against them. But if Jrue Holiday, an elite defender, struggled to guard Playoff Jimmy, the Knicks will likely have some difficulties.
How Will Injuries Impact Each Team?
Both teams are currently dealing with injuries to their key players. For the Knicks, Julius Randle re-injured his ankle in Game 5 against Cleveland. He first hurt his ankle back in late March and sat out the rest of the regular season. He returned in time for the start of the playoffs, and he suited up for all five games, but he hasn’t yet found his form. In the postseason, he’s averaging 14.4 PPG on 33.8% shooting. If he can play, the Knicks need him to find his shot. If he misses time, RJ Barrett and Hart will need to help shoulder the offensive load and play consistently.
Grimes is also managing a shoulder injury, but he should be good to go. The guard has struggled in his first playoff series, tallying 3.7 PPG on 18.2% shooting, 3.3 RPG, and 1 APG. New York will look to him to come up big defensively in the hopes of containing Butler.
The Heat have had worse luck with injuries. Tyler Herro broke his hand in the first game of the playoffs and is expected to miss four-six weeks. Victor Oladipo later suffered a tear in his knee and won’t be able to return. With the loss of two offensive options, Butler has been burdened with the majority of the scoring load. He still has some help from Bam Adebayo (who has been dealing with a hamstring issue), Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin, but Herro and Oladipo combined to average 30.8 PPG in the regular season. An off night from Butler could be enough to cost them a game.
Which Team Has the Edge in the Knicks-Heat Series?
Even with all the injuries on the Heat, this will likely be a close series going to six or seven games. Butler’s ability to carry the offense and the team should not be undermined. However, the sustainability of these scoring performances against the Knicks is questionable. Their lack of depth and scoring options is also concerning. Miami will also need aggressive defense, especially because they’re allowing 114.2 points per 100 possessions (compared to New York’s 101.9).
The Knicks have displayed their offensive prowess against the top defensive team in Cleveland (they held a 109.9 DEFRTG in the regular season). Particularly on the offensive glass, they’re recording a league-most 15 OREB per game, along with scoring 18.2 PPG off second-chance points. However, they averaged a third-worst 99.6 PPG, whereas the Heat posted a playoff-best of 124 PPG.
Ultimately, this series will come down to how well Playoff Jimmy can carry the team. It’ll be his offense against Tom Thibodeau’s defensive schemes. New York will hope that Randle is available and able to return to his regular season form, but they have some other reliable players to count on. The Knicks appear to have an edge, with home-court advantage, stifling defense, and multiple scoring options.
