As we reach the first game of pre-season and the official start of the New York Knicks new season; it’s time to take a deeper look into the team and their expectations for the upcoming season. One thing is clear after this past off-season, there are many questions for the Knicks upcoming season to be answered. For the Knicks ownership and fanbase to be comfortable with their vision going forward, there needs to be tangible progress made on the court for the upcoming season. I will attempt to answer some of the most pertinent questions the Knicks will need to answer this year. Along with my season prediction.
What is the Knicks floor/ceiling in the East?
A lot of it depends on chemistry; the talent is there throughout the roster, with admirable depth in many areas. I would expect RJ Barrett to continue to make incremental improvements to his game. Furthermore, I believe Jalen Brunson is an excellent signing. He will provide stability at point guard the Knicks largely haven’t seen in almost two decades. He was the best point guard available and will propel the team forward with his scoring and distribution.
However, by passing up on, or falling asleep at the wheel in the Donovan Mitchell sweepstakes (depending on differing opinions) they still have no star talent or elite shot creation on the floor. There are also questions as to how the pieces fit, as they are loaded with ball-dominant players and light in size and defense on the wings. Defense is vital to Tom Thibodeau.
Overall, however, the Knicks should be much improved from last year.
That being said, it may not be enough as the Eastern Conference is loaded. Plus with teams like the Cavs and Hawks improving markedly, a case can be made the Knicks could miss the play-in altogether.
Their ceiling and floor range from one of the latter play-in seeds, to finishing just outside.
What is the Knicks Front Office vision?
This is still uncertain. They appear to be trying to compete as well as develop their younger players at the same time. In my experience, I have rarely come across a time when mixing strategies without one coherent vision works out well. Often it becomes muddled.
For instance, look at this past offseason: They traded out of the first round of this past draft (twice). To accrue future draft capital for presumably a future trade, plus clearing cap space to sign Brunson. Yet they were unable to complete any trades to improve the team; and missed out on adding a possible quality lottery addition to help the team.
They also have a scenario where Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Obi Toppin are blocked from major minutes due to the contracts given to Evan Fournier and Julius Randle. This is another stumbling block when trying to accomplish two things at once. How will they get the best out of their younger players if their minutes are capped by veterans who will demand major minutes?
It’s this potentially half-pregnant philosophy that is one of the biggest questions for the Knicks upcoming season.
Who is the main voice in the front office?
There seem to be numerous voices in the front office. Leon Rose is President with Scott Perry as the GM. Prominent voices such as Brock Aller, William Wesley ‘World Wide Wes,’ and Gersson Rosas are all involved also.
From what I understand, Rosas in his advisory role headed the negotiations for Donovan Mitchell. It’s curious why an advisor had the responsibility for the franchise’s most important trade talks since Carmelo Anthony‘s a decade ago. I contend that too many cooks spoil the broth. If several people have different ideas and agendas it’s hard to get a streamlined approach.
Case in point, they were unable to make any deals at last year’s trade deadline. Meanwhile, there were reportedly differing opinions on RJ Barrett’s ceiling, and who to include in the Mitchell trade talks according to several Knick insiders with knowledge of the talks. The organization will be better served with one voice and vision.
Whilst there are many voices behind the scenes, there are presently no voices answering questions to the media as the organization continues its media silence. Setting a bad precedent in my opinion.
What is Tom Thibodeau’s future?
President Leon Rose is a big supporter of Tom Thibodeau. According to Marc Berman of the NY Post, Leon Rose was able to keep the proverbial wolves at bay at the mid-point of last season. Many within the Front Office were ready to fire him but Rose refused. It’s fair to say this is Thibodeau’s prove-it year. This team will need to make tangible progress in the form of results.
To succeed he needs to improve his rotations and get more creative offensively to allow the younger players to develop.
They principally need to play faster. Their offense was one of the slowest isolation-centric offenses in the NBA last year. According to reports, this is a particular focus in training camp.
Tom Thibodeau is well-respected around the league, let’s not forget he is only a year removed from winning Coach of the Year. He’s earned a shot at leading this team back to the playoffs as he did in 2020.
Arguably the Front Office hasn’t helped him. He wanted Reggie Bullock re-signed for defense, whilst the Front Office let him walk. He didn’t see a fit for Cam Reddish, yet the Front Office traded for him anyway.
This is why one of the critical questions for the Knicks upcoming season is whether the Head Coach and Front Office are in-sync. His future likely depends on that.
How will the Knicks distribute minutes?
For me, this is the key question for the Knicks upcoming season which will decide how good a team they will be.
Let’s look at the likely rotation if everyone is healthy:
PG: Jalen Brunson; Derrick Rose; Immanuel Quickley (combo guard)
SG: Evan Fournier; Quentin Grimes ( playing at SG or undersized SF)
SF: RJ Barrett; Cam Reddish.
PF: Julius Randle; Obi Toppin
C: Mitchell Robinson; Isaiah Hartenstein; Jericho Sims.
It’s very unlikely that Tom Thibodeau has any more than a 10-man rotation, so that means Cam Reddish and Sims are likely out of the rotation when fully healthy. Reddish is too talented not to find a way into the rotation, so it will be interesting how he features.
Furthermore, the Knicks Head Coach prefers a shot-blocking big on the court. Meaning Robinson and Hartenstein will command the full minutes at the Center.
Also, Thibodeau has previously expressed reluctance to use Toppin and Randle together at the same time due to defensive issues. This means that there will still be a cap to the minutes of their top-10 pick Obi Toppin. Again, a very questionable strategy and allocation of resources from the Front Office when deciding to give Randle a max extension.
This circles back to my earlier point regarding the mixed messages of the front office; Reddish cost them a first-round pick in a trade and he may not have a role despite being just 23 and a very smooth and talented athlete. Meanwhile, their top-10 draft selection for the very talented Toppin’s role is unclear due to Randle’s contract.
Does this team fit chemistry-wise?
Last season there were many chemistry issues behind-the-scenes; Julius Randle particularly acted out, and it reportedly ruffled feathers that he wasn’t held to account the way some others were.
Shot distribution is also at the crux of the conversation. RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are high-usage, low-efficiency players. Randle struggled to deal with playing a secondary role due to Barrett’s emergence as their best player.
Brunson is a player who can do whatever role the team needs, but he is at his best as a scoring Point Guard. As evidenced by his multiple 30-point efforts in the playoffs for the Mavs last year.
Fournier as one of the league leaders in threes made; is penciled to start but is below average defensively.
Off-the-bench, microwave scorer Quickley and former MVP Derrick Rose will be vying for serious Guard minutes. Grimes, who Thibodeau loves as a 3 and D player, was held out of all Donovan Mitchell negotiations. As one of the few players on the roster who is a strong on-ball defender and also one of the few who doesn’t need the ball to be effective, it will be a surprise if he doesn’t end up in the starting lineup fairly soon.
Robinson is an elite rim-defender as is Hartenstein.
As we can see it’s a very deep roster, yet it’s hard to see where they can keep everyone happy with minutes.
If Thibodeau can successfully do so, then there is no reason why this team couldn’t make the play-in tournament.
How will Julius Randle buy in?
Randle has much to prove. In fairness to Randle, he has worked very hard this off-season. He’s leaner and fitter by all reports. He wishes to play faster and be better off the ball. This is vitally important if this team is to succeed. Multiple times he displayed a very poor effort on the court and a poor attitude when asked to take a secondary role. He is most likely to have an even more reduced role due to acquiring Brunson and extending Barrett. How he handles this will be a very important question for the Knicks upcoming season. A year removed from an All-Pro season, he has the talent in his locker but how he handles a reduced workload remains in question.
Randle to this point has always been one of the primary scorers on a team and isn’t necessarily known for doing the dirty work off-ball. As one of the questions of the Knicks upcoming season, he has to buy in as the Knicks have a lot riding on him.
Can RJ Barrett take the next step in his development?
The Knicks are hoping that Barrett can take a step towards being an all-star. By doubling down on that belief, they signed him to a 4 year $107 million extension plus incentives. His scoring has increased year on year to averaging 20 points per game. He’s shown a knack for the limelight last season with a 46-point effort along with a thrilling buzzer-beating winner against the eventual finalist Celtics.
RJ’s greatest asset is his work rate and determination to be great. This feels like a safe investment by the Knicks to make him a franchise cornerstone. For him to take the next step, he needs to improve his efficiency. He had the 4th worst efficiency in the league for high-usage players, while Randle had the worst. If the Knicks are to make a playoff push RJ will need to improve on this.
Do the Knicks have a bright future?
Potentially, very much so. They are flush with draft assets and one of the best things this Front Office has done is protecting the team’s future and their young core. I also think Brunson was an excellent acquisition approaching the prime of his career. Also, the contract extensions given out to RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are fair considering their talent. It will likely look even better once the salary cap increases next year. Grimes, Toppin, and Quickley also have bright futures in the NBA. If the organization can further develop these talents the franchise could have a bright future for years to come.
Season Prediction: 9th or 10th seed play-in.
Overall, this is a deep and talented roster but the philosophy is muddled. They have a win-now coach and expensive veterans; whilst developing young players at the same time. How they all fit together will be a task for Thibodeau. That said, Brunson was the best available Point Guard on the market, and there should be enough talent to scratch their way to one of the last play-in spots. This would be considered a strong season in a loaded division.
