After losing to Richmond on Friday, and now having lost three of their last four games, St Bonaventure is now tied with George Washington for 7th in the A-10. It’s February. If you had told me back in November before the season started that this would happen I would have laughed in your face and called you crazy. Their NCAA Tournament hopes look grim at best right now. Now, luckily the Bonnies have two games Saint Louis and then games against VCU and another against Richmond among others in their schedule coming up. But even if they win all four of those games it might not be enough to get them to the big dance.
St. Bonaventure’s Disappointment
What Happened?
I wrote back in October that I thought St Bonaventure had a chance to be really good this season. They brought back all five starters from last year’s team led by Kyle Lofton and brought in two high-major transfers. There was a lot to like about this team. And I definitely was not alone in my hype and expectations for the Bonnies this year.
For the first couple of weeks, things were going pretty well. They had three good wins a week before Thanksgiving at the Charleston Classic against Boise State, Clemson, and Marquette en route to that tournament’s title. After that, they were #16 in the country, and I thought that was a little low. Personally, I had them three spots higher at #13. But that’s when everything started going downhill. That week they lost to Northern Iowa. Then in mid-December, they had two good, yet tough, matchups against UConn and Virginia Tech. UConn beat them by ten at the Never Forget Tribute Classic in Newark. Then Virginia Tech, another huge disappointment this season in my eyes, beat the Bonnies by a whopping thirty-seven points at the Basketball of Fame Shootout in Charlotte. It was bad. Things did not get any better after their COVID pause. To date, they have only won four conference games. Three of them were against three of the bottom four teams in the A-10.
So what has gone wrong? Well for starters it’s their defense. St Bonaventure was really good on defense last season. There were only six teams in the country that gave up fewer points per game than the Bonnies did. This year? They are 175th in points against per game. They are 170th in adjusted defensive efficiency. St Bonaventure is near the bottom in turnovers and personal fouls per game and are 249th in three-point percentage. They are also 212th in total rebounds per game. No wonder they’ve played so poorly the last two months. Because of all of that and their current resume, it’s no shock that the Bonnies are 104th in the NET and 99th in KenPom.
Can St Bonaventure Still Make The Tournament?
Given their current resume, the metrics, and the remaining opportunities in a down year for the Atlantic 10, it is hard to envision St Bonaventure turning things around and being able to squeak into the NCAA Tournament. They could maybe do so by winning at least most of the rest of their games and making a deep run in the A-10 tournament next month in Washington D.C. But more realistically they really might have to win the A-10 title to be able to go dancing this season. Considering the team’s potential this year, it is a big shame and a huge disappointment.
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