Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James has been one of the best players in the NBA from the moment he stepped on to the court as a 19-year-old. Now in his 17th season, “King James” is still producing at an MVP level. With many of his fellow 2003 draftees now retired, James’ longevity is one to behold. However, Father Time eventually catches up to everyone, so how much longer can he sustain his elite level of play?
LeBron James Won’t be Slowing Down Soon
Age and Past Comparables
To answer that question, we should take a look at past players who are known for their longevity. The two most obvious examples are Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Karl Malone. They both played until the age of 40 and were still All-Stars during their last few seasons. Moreover, Abdul-Jabbar and Malone rank first and second all-time in minutes played when combining both regular season and playoff games.
Like James, Malone played at an MVP level at age 35 and won the award for the second and final time in his career. In fact, he’s the oldest MVP winner in NBA history. Malone would go on to enjoy three more All-Star seasons before eventually retiring with the Lakers in 2004. Remarkably, the power forward didn’t experience a considerable drop-off in play until he turned 40 and still averaged over 20 points per game at 39.
Similar to Malone, Abdul-Jabbar played at a high level into his late 30s as well. He is the oldest (age 38) and second-oldest (age 36) player ever to make the All-NBA first team. He was also voted as an All-Star during his final season and retired at the age of 41. However, that might have been a ceremonious pick rather than one that was truly deserved. Abdul-Jabbar didn’t decline noticeably until he was 39, yet he still averaged over 17 points per game.
Minutes Played is a Factor as Well
Outside of age, minutes played is another stat that needs to be examined when discussing longevity. James is already 3rd all-time in minutes played (regular season and playoffs) because he entered the league as a teenager. Meanwhile, Abdul-Jabbar and Malone were both 22 when they first stepped on to an NBA court; this means that they had experienced less mileage at 35 than James has. This could be detrimental to the latter’s longevity, but we also need to consider the difference in eras.
Science and medicine have advanced exponentially in the decades since Abdul-Jabbar and Malone played, which could help prolong James’ career. “The King” is also one of the most well-conditioned athletes of his generation; he allegedly spends $1.5 million annually to keep himself in peak shape. Furthermore, James is now spending more time on the perimeter as a playmaker rather than banging in the post. This means that his body won’t be as worn down physically as before.
Considering these factors, James could probably produce at an elite level into his late 30s. He’s still arguably the best player in the world, and I expect him to continue to be in that conversation. Similar to Abdul-Jabbar and Malone, James could be a bonafide top 10 player until the age of 38. He might decline afterward, but I believe that his playmaking abilities could make him an All-Star until he’s 40.
Ultimately, LeBron James still has at least three more seasons of elite play left in him. He’s currently on track to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in all-time minutes. James might also be an All-Star at 40, which is something only a few players have done in history. There’s no doubt that “King James” will go down as one of the greatest athletes to ever play in the NBA.
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