At 9-3, the Miami Heat have been having an impressive start to the 2019-20 season and are currently the third seed in the East. As expected their defense has been elite, while the offense has been better than predicted. New faces have also been showing up and propelling the Heat forward.
The Miami Heat’s Impressive Start to the 2019-20 Season
During the first few weeks of the season, it’s generally advisable to take stats with a grain of salt. Sample sizes are small and one game can drastically swing most statistics. About a month in, trends with the sample size to back them up begin to emerge. One of those trends, the Miami Heat are a really good basketball team.
Miami is currently undefeated at home, with all three of their losses coming on the road. What’s more, two of those losses were to Western Conference elites Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers, the latter of which came on the second night of a back-to-back. The third loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves came when the Heat didn’t have their best player and still required a fourth-quarter explosion by Andrew Wiggins.
On the other end, Miami has notched some great wins including a comeback win against the Milwaukee Bucks and a blow out of the Houston Rockets. They’ve steamrolled weaker opponents and currently have the fifth-highest margin of victory in the league. Though they’re 14th in offensive rating, the Heat are third in defensive rating. Their overall net rating is fourth in the league, a reflection of how they’re getting work done on both ends of the floor.
A Great Offense with One Critical Flaw
Last season, the Heat’s offense was their biggest problem, routinely going stretches without buckets and struggling to score. Though not quite elite, the Heat’s offense has drastically improved from last season. Miami currently leads the league in true shooting, field goal, and effective field goal percentage. Though they’re only 15th in three-point attempts, they’re third in three-point percentage, an indicator they’re choosing their shots well.
The shooting numbers have been great, but most of that is a byproduct of Miami’s real strength, playmaking. Head Coach Erik Spoelstra has implemented a ball movement heavy system that empowers their deep roster of playmakers. Miami has four players averaging four or more assists per game, with nine at least averaging one assist per game. This has led to an offense that’s fifth in assists per game and second in assist percentage. At 16th in pace, Miami isn’t rushing through possessions and is instead, passing up the good shot to get their teammate a great shot.
If their’s one key flaw in the Heat’s offense, it’s their turnover problem. The Heat lead the league in turnovers per game and turnover percentage. More turnovers mean fewer possessions to score, a big indicator why despite their great numbers they’re only 14th in offensive rating. Turnovers are going to happen in a ball movement heavy system like the Heat’s, but cleaning up the turnovers enough to be middle of the league could vault their offense up to top 10. Considering they’re also fourth in the league in opponent points off turnovers, it would help their already elite defense out as well.
The Miami Heat Are Still Built on Elite Defense
While nothing new for a Miami Heat team, their defense has been top five as expected. From Pat Riley to Spoelstra, the defense has always been Miami’s calling card. This season’s version, a nasty disruptive defense that leads the league in steals. Adding to that, Miami is second in the league in opponent turnovers and turnovers per game. They’re not block heavy, sitting at 14th, but they also don’t foul a lot, only 15th in the league.
In terms of shooting, Miami is ninth in opponent field goal percentage and 10th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Though they’re 28th in opponent three-point attempts, they lead the league in opponent three-point percentage. While there should be some regression given the number of attempts, there’s still truth in that statistic. Miami does an excellent job funneling the ball to the shooters they want taking shots.
Miami’s defense also does a solid job in hustle areas. Even with their offensive turnover problems, Miami is only 13th in opponent fastbreak points. They’re 11th in defensive rebounds per game but are sixth in defensive rebounding percentage. Because of this, they’re seventh in opponent offensive rebounds per game and 14th in opponent second-chance points. Opponents are not finding it easy to score in the paint either, with Miami 11th in opponent points in the paint. From disruption to shooting to hustle, all of these culminate in an elite defense that’s sixth in opponent points per game and fourth in defensive rating.
New Faces Making an Impact for the Miami Heat
Fueling the impressive start Miami has had so far are several new players to the roster. Some are making expected impacts, while others have been pleasant surprises. Jimmy Butler, a well known two-way superstar, would be one of the former. He’s leading the league in steals per game and leading the Heat in assists per game at a career-high 7.2 per game. He’s also the Heat’s leading scorer at 18.4 per game and one of it’s best defenders. Butler is 10th in the league in box plus/minus, a result of his excellent two-way play.
One of the surprising contributions has been the Heat’s recent first-round pick, Tyler Herro. Bordering on irrational confidence, Herro has been showing off his silky smooth jump shot and flashing an all-around scoring game. He’s shooting 37.5 percent from three-point range on 4.4 attempts per game and averaging 13.3 points per game. He’s also chipping in 4.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and almost a steal a game. Though defense was supposed to be his weakness, his competitiveness has led him to hold his own on that end, even as a rookie. Suffice to say, the Heat are happy with their selection.
No new contributor for the Heat, though, has been as much of a surprise as Kendrick Nunn. Undrafted and playing for a G-league team last season, Nunn has exploded coming out the gate for the Heat. In fact, no undrafted player in league history scored more than Nunn did the first five games. He’s the Heat’s second-leading scorer at 17.8 points per game, shooting 38.4 percent from three-point range on 6.1 attempts. He’s also adding in playmaking, 3.2 assists per game, and defense, 1.6 steals per game. From undrafted to starting all 12 games for the Heat, Nunn has been Miami’s biggest surprise.
Thanks to some new contributors and excellent two-way play, Miami has had an impressive start to the season. There’s still plenty of games left to go, but for now, it’s a great time to be a Heat fan.
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