With the NBA season right around the corner, it’s time to take a look at the Southwest Division win totals. It’s also time to project if each team will hit the over or the under and where you should put your money. These win totals come courtesy of Bovada.
Win Totals for the Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks
The over/under for the Dallas Mavericks is set at 40.5. If the Mavericks were in the East, this would be an easy over. However, they play in the Western Conference.
Kristaps Porzingis is finally going to be playing in a Mavericks uniform after not playing last season following the trade from the New York Knicks to Dallas. Also, Luka Dončić is back for year two following his Rookie of the Year campaign.
Outside of those two, most of the same roster is back from last season’s team that won 33 games. For Dallas to hit the over, they will need some good production out of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry, who they brought in from the Portland Trail Blazers.
The correct bet on Dallas is the under. They will be right on the border of .500, but there isn’t enough depth on this team to win 41 or more games. Also, Porzingis will take some time to settle in after missing the last year and a half.
Houston Rockets
The over/under for the Houston Rockets is set at 54. Houston won 53 games a year ago but made some huge changes this offseason. In is Russell Westbrook and out is Chris Paul.
Westbrook and James Harden played together early in their careers but both have had their games evolve a lot since that time.
Houston has the talent to surpass 54 wins, but it will be imperative for Westbrook and Harden to quickly learn how to play with each other at this point in each’s career.
The correct bet here is the over. Houston is going to take the regular season seriously. The reason for that is largely because Harden will want to win MVP after feeling like he was snubbed last season.
Memphis Grizzlies
The over/under for the Memphis Grizzlies is set at 26.5. This is a team that won 33 games last season. The key to them hitting the over is going to be the play of second overall pick Ja Morant.
Memphis also added Jae Crowder this offseason, along with Andre Iguodala. However, it’s unlikely Iguodala will ever play for Memphis. Along with Morant, Memphis drafted Brandon Clarke, who is someone who could easily come in and make an impact.
The correct bet on Memphis is the over. The odds feel small of them dropping by more than seven wins. A lot of development should come from within, and the rookies Morant and Clarke will be productive leading this team.
New Orleans Pelicans
The over/under for the New Orleans Pelicans is set at 39. That’s a six-win increase from last season, which isn’t unrealistic to think could happen. While Anthony Davis is gone, some real talent has been added to the roster.
In the Davis trade, the team added Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, and Brandon Ingram. Those three had interesting careers for the Los Angeles Lakers, but have talent. The team also added a veteran presence in J.J. Redick this offseason to help space the floor.
Make no mistake about it though, the main piece added was Zion Williamson. The first overall pick out of Duke has garnered a lot of attention and created a lot of excitement from not just the fan base, but the NBA fan base as a whole.
Adding Williamson sped up the rebuild that was created by trading Davis to the Lakers. The correct bet, however, is the under. While there is talent on this roster, and Jrue Holiday is still there, this team will ultimately lose a lot of close games while being exciting because of inexperience.
San Antonio Spurs
The over/under for the San Antonio Spurs is set at 46.5. That would be a slight decrease from last season. That’s an interesting number because most of the team is back.
The two most important players back are DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. With those two on the roster, and Gregg Popovich still being the coach, expect the Spurs to be a dangerous team.
However, the correct bet here is the under. San Antonio will be a threat to win each game and they will play hard and be well-coached every game. The reason they will hit the under though is that this is still an aging roster. Having Dejounte Murray back in the backcourt after he missed all of last season will be huge, but this team will still sit around 43-44 wins.
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