During the 2016-17 NBA season, headlines will be dominated by Kevin Durant and the Golden State Warriors on a daily basis. However, having a super-team doesn’t guarantee a championship; just look at the 2012-13 Los Angeles Lakers. Everything can change and anything can happen in the NBA. A team can implode, the injury bug could strike, or a team simply might not play to its potential. In this Last Word On Pro Basketball series, we’ll break down which two key factors will determine the fate of each team in the upcoming season.
Here, we take a look at the Orlando Magic and the two key factors that will define their season.
Two Key Factors to a Successful Orlando Magic Season
The Orlando Magic blew up their roster this off-season with every intention of making it to the playoffs this coming season. It started in the middle of last season, when they traded away Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons in exchange for the expiring contract of point guard Brandon Jennings and forward Ersan Ilyasova. Jennings walked in free agency, while Ilyasova was traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of a larger deal.
Head coach Scott Skiles resigned, so the Magic brought in former Indiana Pacers head coach Frank Vogel. Vogel has always been a defensive-minded coach, and the Magic made big moves to bring as much defense to this team. During the 2016 NBA Draft, the Magic traded shooting guard Victor Oladipo, the aforementioned Ilyasova, and their first round pick Domantas Sabonis to the Thunder for power forward Serge Ibaka, who is possibly the best rim protector in the league. In free agency, Orlando signed point guard D.J. Augustin, forward Jeff Green, and Bismack Biyombo. All three will play off of the bench in key roles. The Magic also re-signed shooting guard Evan Fournier.
First Key: Finding Offense
The Magic are nothing short of defensive talent. Their team is filled with defensive-minded players, led by a defensive-minded coach. Offensively, they have some good pieces. Ibaka and Biyombo should compliment each other really well. The rotation of those two and center Nikola Vucevic will be interesting, and a big part in potentially helping this team reach the playoffs.
Losing Oladipo and Harris hurts on the perimeter, but they have a young athletic machine in Aaron Gordon who will now play small forward. Gordon has continued to improve, and veteran Jeff Green will back him up. At the point guard position, Elfrid Payton and Augustin are quality players. Shooting guards Fournier and second-year man Mario Hezonja have dangerous outside shots.
Chemistry of the Big Men
In five seasons as the full-time head coach of the Pacers, Vogel produced top defenses each year. The Pacers were in the top five in points allowed per game and defensive rating in three of his five seasons. They never fell below the top ten in those categories. Those defenses wouldn’t have been what they were without the stellar play of big men Roy Hibbert and Ian Mahinmi. Ibaka and Biyombo are more talented than either one of those two, which should make it easier for Ibaka and Biyombo to settle into Vogel’s rotation and scheme.
The Ibaka-Biyombo Duo
Ibaka and Biyombo have similar strengths, but they also complement each other on their weaknesses. Biyombo has a very limited offensive game. He cannot be relied on to put points on the board on his own. His scoring output is limited to put-backs and easy shots made possible by the playmaking of his teammates. On the other hand, Ibaka has a decent post game and one of the best outside shots of any big man, which continues to get better. Over the last two years, he was able to stretch his shot out to the three-point line on a more consistent basis. However, Ibaka doesn’t have the energy or athleticism to do what Biyombo can, in terms of rebounding. Biyombo was a monster on the boards in the NBA playoffs last year, and his big games were a huge part in helping the Toronto Raptors get to the Eastern Conference Finals. He pulled down 16 rebounds twice in the playoffs, and a career high 26 in Game 3 of Toronto’s series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Ibaka isn’t a slouch in the rebounding department, but he’s not reliable for double-digit boards.
Vucevic’s Fit Alongside the Other Big Men
In Vucevic, the Magic have a big man who may not be as strong defensively as the other two, but Vucevic brings it offensively. He has the best offensive game of the three and might be the best rebounder, as well. There are many ways that the three big men can work together. Vucevic can play in the high post, at the elbow, while Biyombo lurks closer to the basket. If Vucevic gets the ball down low, he can create with his shot on the block like he has done thus far in his career, with Biyombo on the opposite block or a little higher, waiting to clean up or finish on an open look. Ibaka’s perimeter shooting complements Biyombo and Vucevic, who can both stay closer to the block or work the pick-androll with a guard. The lane would be open, since Ibaka’s man would have to commit to his shot. Otherwise, Ibaka will hit the open jumpers.
The three big men are key in providing offense. This team doesn’t have a lot of players who can consistently score on their own. The chemistry of the three bigs is crucial in providing the scoring.
Second Key: Perimeter Play
The Magic are strong in the frontcourt with Ibaka, Biyombo, and Vucevic. On the perimeter, they need players to step up. The Magic have two unknowns in Gordon and Hezonja. Both players are young and haven’t tapped into their potential yet.
The guards have a mixture of talent that could work, but they’ve got one big problem. If they can find some way to overcome that problem, this will work, and the Magic should be a playoff team. It all depends on the perimeter play.
The Development of Gordon
For a while, Vogel has said that he plans to use Gordon in the same way that he used Paul George in Indiana. In other words, he thinks Gordon can be a star. Not many see the comparison. Gordon can handle the ball a little and drive to the basket well, but his jump shot isn’t reliable. He’s athletic, but his natural position is really power forward, especially in a league where teams are getting smaller and faster.
Gordon’s production is just virtually unknown. No one has any real idea what he can do at the small forward spot. He hasn’t been asked to be the pick-and-roll facilitator or the top playmaker for the Magic yet, but that’s what the team wants him to be. Does he have the jumpshot to play the small forward spot? Does he have the handles, quickness, and elusiveness to drive to the basket on a consistent basis?
No one can answer these questions except for Gordon himself, with strong play. If it works, everyone will see it. If it obviously is not working, then that will be noticed, as well. There are a lot of questions surrounding Gordon this year. He needs to provide the answers.
The Remaining Talent
Green, Payton, Augustin, Hezonja, and Fournier are the remaining five players who look to make an impact in the Magic’s rotation. Green will back up Gordon and Ibaka at the three and four spots. The 30-year-old Green is wildly inconsistent but has looked pretty good so far in preseason. Preseason play should be taken lightly, but Green is getting to his last chance before organizations lose faith in his ability to contribute at a high level whatsoever. In this position, Green can play strong defense and provide a little bit of scoring off the bench, as Orlando’s veteran leader. It’s a nice fit for him.
The Point Guards
Augustin has to stay healthy all year. He is the best shooter at point guard on the Magic roster, and he’ll be a really important player this year. He has played under Vogel before, and that’s a reason he was brought in. Payton can’t shoot a lick. He might have the worst outside shot of any point guard in the league. Not only does he have a problem with shooting from the outside, but he also can’t hit free throws. He has the third worst free throw percentage of any guard in NBA history. How can the Magic rely on him at the end of games when teams are intentionally fouling to stop the clock and try to make a comeback? Payton is a burden for the Magic at that point, so Augustin might be the one seeing the majority of the minutes at the end of games.
Payton produced an assist-to-turnover ratio higher than that of John Wall, Russell Westbrook, and Stephen Curry last season. He clearly knows how to make plays for his teammates and can take care of the ball. He’s also improved his floater this year. Payton has a lot of skill and the Magic believe in him. He’s been involved in trade rumors, but the Magic weren’t seriously considering getting rid of him. Now he needs to step up his play and be more of an asset than a liability.
The Question of Hezonja
Finally, the Magic have one exciting prospect in Hezonja. There was a lot of buzz around the 6’8” Croatian shooting guard because of how he carried himself prior to the 2015 NBA Draft. Some say that he’s cocky and arrogant, but others would say he just has a killer mentality. But none of that showed last year, largely because of the coaching of Skiles. Hezonja was scared to make mistakes because of the inevitable benching if he did commit an error. With a coaching change, Hezonja should be able to play more freely and not have to worry about making mistakes. Vogel knows that Hezonja will play well more often than not.
Hezonja has a beautiful shot and is really athletic. He will drive to the basket and dunk on just about anyone. Hezonja is prepared to take on a bigger role, and the Magic need him to provide scoring off the bench. Fournier will start over Hezonja. He isn’t as athletic as Hezonja, but as of now, he’s the better scorer. Fournier had a really nice season last year and was paid handsomely for it. The two shooting guards are weak defenders, though, which doesn’t bode well for Vogel. The defensive play of the rest of the team might be able to mask that issue, but it’s still a little bit of a cause for concern.
This Magic team has enough talent to make the playoffs. What matters most is the big men developing chemistry and Aaron Gordon fitting into his new role. If both of those things happen, the Magic will likely make the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.
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