For the second straight winter, Blake Snell represents one of the better free agent pitchers available. However, many expect the southpaw to see a healthier market for his services this time.
Two-Time Cy Young Winner Hits The Open Market Again
Snell lingered on the open market last offseason as teams were reluctant to pay him big money, even after a Cy Young season. Prior to the 2024 season, Snell supported a career ERA+ of 128. Without his two Cy Young-winning seasons, his career ERA+ drops to 109.
Among those with 100+ innings in 2024, only Paul Skenes had a better raw value-, and only Garrett Crochet had a better whiff+ than Blake Snell.
So what it will take to sign the FA lefty? @zcrizer answers that question and ranks the MLB free agents.https://t.co/i5nHoOXDNG pic.twitter.com/syIOPp2Pcp
— Opta Analyst US (@OptaAnalystUS) November 15, 2024
Nobody doubted that Snell was a talented, above-average pitcher. But, his inconsistent track record made teams think twice about committing top dollar to him. That led him to sign a high-salary, short-term deal with the San Francisco Giants during spring training.
Though he got off to a rough start, Snell eventually found his footing and was one of the best pitchers in the league. With a longer track record of consistent success to show teams, Snell looks to finally cash in as a free agent this offseason.
Blake Snell Free Agent Profile
Snell could not have started last season worse than he did. Due to his late signing, he was not ready by Opening Day. It seems he rushed his pre-season preparation to debut on April 8. Unfortunately, the left-hander experienced two separate injured list stints and severe struggles during the season’s first three months. He posted a 9.51 ERA in 23 2/3 innings in his first six starts.
However, he was a brand new pitcher after missing most of June with a groin injury. In his final 14 starts of the season, a stretch that began on July 9, Snell dominated. He tossed 80 1/3 innings and produced a 1.23 ERA with 114 strikeouts and 30 walks.
That production was on par with what he posted in 2023. That season, he tossed 180 innings with the San Diego Padres and featured a 2.25 ERA (187 ERA+) with 234 strikeouts. His 11.7 K/9 ratio that season is almost identical to the 11.77 K/9 rate he posted during his dominant stretch last year.
Congrats to Blake Snell on the no-hitter. Never even went 8 innings before tonight. 114 pitches, his arm is still attached to his body, and he did something everyone in that stadium will remember forever. Let’s keep playing real baseball, people.
— Super 70s Sports (@Super70sSports) August 3, 2024
Plus, Snell dominated last season without walking that many batters. Snell always had a reputation for walking a lot of hitters but negated it with elite strikeout rates and low hit rates. During his great stretch last year, he posted a 3.36 BB/9 ratio, much lower than the 4.95 BB/9 ratio he supported the year prior. Overall in 2024, he produced a 3.12 ERA (124 ERA+) with 145 punchouts in 104 innings.
It seems that Snell has unlocked some consistency in his early thirties, which should make him a more appealing free agent option. It doesn’t seem that he is as much of an enigma as he was on last winter’s market, and his agent should be able to turn that into big money.
Contract Projections
Rumors swirled last season that Snell was looking for a deal worth at least $200 million. He eventually settled for a two-year, $62 million contract that included an opt-out after year one (that he obviously exercised). He earned $15 million during the season and is owed a $17 million bonus in January 2026.
Snell will be 32 on Opening Day. Only one pitcher of that age has secured a deal in free agency worth more than five years. Additionally, multiple top-end starters are available via trade and free agency this winter. The odds are against Snell signing for more than five years. However, there is a slight possibility that his profile (talented but not durable) limits him to a short-term deal with a high average annual value.
MLB Trade Rumors projects a five-year, $16o million deal ($32 million per year), while Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts a three-year, $105 million contract ($35 million per year). Bowden supports his prediction by saying that Snell only has two seasons of 30 or more starts and doesn’t have a season with over 180 2/3 innings. He has also only pitched 130 or more innings once since 2018.
.@JeffPassan mentions in passing the Red Sox are talking to Blake Snell and Max Fried.
We saw him link the Red Sox and Fried together in his offseason preview, but not Snell.
Snell doesn’t carry a QO, which Burnes/Fried both have. Lowest ERA/FIP of any starter in the 2nd half. pic.twitter.com/1vDNDZ6Nso
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) November 15, 2024
Many reports indicate that more teams will be aggressive this winter. Snell does not have a qualifying offer attached to him, meaning he will only cost money, not money and a draft pick. More quality arms are available this winter, but agent Scott Boras should be able to leverage enough deep-pocketed teams to secure Snell at least a five-year deal.
Main Photo Credits: Katie Stratman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
