The Cubs’ offseason playbook for 2024/25 is likely to offer a balanced attack. With the World Series fast approaching its conclusion, teams are scrambling to organize their offseason strategies, and the Cubs are no exception. Depth issues in nearly every aspect of the game and pending player options might make for a surprise or two before the start of Spring Training 2025.
Cubs’ Offseason Playbook
A Focus On Late Spring Doldrums
Arguably, the Cubs season was lost during the team’s May/June doldrums when they went 21-34 with one game postponed due to weather. Counting the postponement as a loss (given their overall play at the time), the team only needed to play .500 baseball those two months to win 90 games last season.
What featured in that period was a dearth of timely hitting, dependable defense, power hitting, late-inning pitching, and injuries. This cross-organizational deprivation signals a need for depth in nearly every game phase for the Northsiders.
The Cubs’ Payroll Situation
The Cubs have six players locked into contracts for next season. Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Dansby Swanson, and Seiya Suzuki attend a payroll equaling $111M. The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) is set at $241M for next season and Cubs owner Tom Ricketts prefers payroll to hover at or near the CBT.
This leaves roughly $130M for President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer to attempt to field a team that competes at the level manager Craig Counsell expects. Counsell is likely to have some say in how the team moves, but the waiting period is nearly over, and teams will be looking to land top talent.
Postseason Trading Begins One Day After the World Series
With the Los Angeles Dodgers leading the New York Yankees 3-1, the 2024 World Series could end soon. This means each team’s free agents could begin “quiet” negotiations with their respective teams as early as tomorrow. After five days, these free agents can enter the free agent market and begin to gauge their market value. Moreover, the player trade season opens on the same day.
Kyle Hendricks and Jorge Lopez are the only free agents on the Cubs roster. Hendricks isn’t likely to see his contract renewed. But Lopez, who came over from the New York Mets at midseason and had a 2.03 ERA down the stretch, could very well find himself in a Cubs uniform.
No Qualifying Offers And Avoiding Arbitration
The League has set the qualifying offer at $21.05M for the 2025 offseason. The Cubs, having offered a QO to Bellinger last season, are not in a position to offer one this year.
All fourteen Cubs’ players eligible for arbitration have been signed to one-year contracts. This includes pitchers Justin Steele and Nate Pearson, as well as third baseman Isaac Paredes, who were not eligible for non-tender. These three are all expected to contribute to the team’s success next season.
The same might be said for Christian Bethancourt, Mike Tauchman, Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Keegan Thompson. But it’s harder to justify signing Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Yency Almonte, Colten Brewer, Jimmy Herget, and Trey Wingenter one-year extensions. These are the kinds of decisions that leave Cubs faithful scratching their heads.
Bellinger And Smyly Decisions Coming Soon
The decisions on Cody Bellinger and Drew Smyly will be known before the fifth day after the World Series ends. In Bellinger’s case, he holds the cards. There is some evidence to suggest he will opt out, given the play of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch at Belly’s preferred positions. He might decide to test the market and see what he can get.
Smyly has a mutual option with a $2.5M buyout for 2025. This clause means both sides have to agree on his direction. Despite this rather thorny process, he is also thought to be heading for the market this offseason.
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Rule 5 Draft Implications For Several Cubs’ Minor Leaguers
The Cubs have four minor league players that are good targets for Rule 5 Draft protection. The draft takes place in December of each season and allows teams without a complete 40-man roster to select unprotected players from other teams.
Top of mind for the Cubs is outfielder Owen Caissie, 22, (Cubs Pipeline No. 2/MLB No. 34) who is likely to find his way to Spring Training in February. The number 45 overall pick of the San Diego Padres in 2020 slashed .278/.375/.472 at Triple-A Iowa last season with 19 home runs and 75 RBI. Caissie has the bat speed, exit velocity, and raw power the Cubs need in their lineup. He projects in right field and would likely platoon with Seiya Suzuki if Bellinger decides to opt out of his contract.
Other likely signings are catcher Pablo Aliendo (Cubs No. 13), outfielder Christian Franklin (Cubs No. 22), and infielder Ben Cowles (Cubs No. 29).
For The Cubs, The Probabilities Are Limited
The Cubs’ 2025 opening day lineup isn’t likely to look much different than the closing day’s lineup for 2024. Cubs front office will be hoping the squad that ended last season will be a more consistent performer. There is reason to believe that will be the case.
The one outlier is the fate of Bellinger, which will no doubt spark some excitement this offseason. Whatever Bellinger decides to do, the dugout is bound to be filled with some less familiar faces. Some like Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, and Brad Birdsell may become regulars in the Major League club.
The Cubs’ offseason playbook could be rather mundane. If a “marquee” deal is to be made, it will probably be for a starting pitcher. But expect the Cubs to roll the dice on the current lineup. Big trade deals will be off the table pending a reassessment at the 2025 trade deadline.
Main Photo Credits: David Banks-Imagn Images
