The Philadelphia Phillies postseason rotation order should be set up in a specific way. With the Phillies having a bye to the NLDS, they did not have to adjust their rotation for the final weekend of the regular season. This gives everyone extra rest before the postseason. It is clear that NL Cy Young Award contender Zack Wheeler will start Game 1 of the NLDS on October 5. However, Phillies manager Rob Thomson has not yet confirmed the order. The debate has been surrounding what order Cristopher Sánchez and Aaron Nola should be in. It is possible the Phillies elect to use three starters in the NLDS. In that event, Wheeler would be in line to start Game 4 on three days’ rest if the series gets to that point. Ranger Suárez would be in line to start Game 4 otherwise.
Phillies Postseason Rotation
1. Wheeler
In 32 starts this season Wheeler had a 16-7 record with a 2.57 ERA and 224 strikeouts. Wheeler had a 3.13 FIP and a 62 ERA- this season. Additionally, Wheeler recorded a major league leading 26 quality starts this season. Wheeler is the Phillies ace and has proven time and time again why he is. Just like the last two postseasons Wheeler will be leading the Phillies rotation in October as they hope to win the World Series. Wheeler has a 4-3 record with a 2.42 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 11 outings in the postseason. In addition, Wheeler has a 27.0% WPA in the postseason.
2. Sánchez
In 31 starts this season, Sánchez had an 11-9 record with a 3.32 ERA and 153 strikeouts. Sánchez recorded a 2.99 FIP and a 80 ERA- this season. This season, Sánchez pitched two complete games, including one complete game shutout. The Phillies having home-field advantage in the NLDS contributes to Sánchez being ahead of Nola. Sánchez has a 2.21 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP at home; on the road, he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP this season. These splits have a significant difference where the Phillies should ensure Sánchez starts at home as much as possible in the postseason. Sánchez has had a breakout season in 2024.
3. Nola
In 32 starts this season Nola has a 13-8 record with a 3.52 ERA and 190 strikeouts. Nola is starting the Phillies regular-season finale against the Washington Nationals. Currently, Nola has a 3.97 FIP and an 85 ERA- this season. Nola has a 5-3 record with a 3.70 ERA and 50 strikeouts in nine postseason outings. To add, Nola has a -5.0% WPA in the postseason. Nola allows a lot of home runs, which has contributed to his moving down the rotation order. With that being said Nola does have a complete game shutout this season.
4. Suárez
In 27 games this season, Suárez has a 12-8 record with a 3.46 ERA and 145 strikeouts. Suárez has a 3.36 FIP and a 84 ERA- this season. Since returning from the injured list, Suárez has had a 5.74 ERA and a 4.73 FIP in seven starts. Opposing batters have a .313/.378/.516 line against Suárez in that span. While there is some concern Suárez has been a dominant postseason pitcher. Suárez has a 3-1 record with a 1.62 ERA and 32 strikeouts in nine outings. In addition, Suárez has an 18.5% WPA in the postseason. Suárez could be used out of the bullpen in the NLDS even if he were to be in line to start Game 4.
Main Photo Credits: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
