The Tampa Bay Rays have already started selling minor pieces after a middling start to the season. It’s unclear how many pieces the Rays will sell at the deadline, but many prominent players have drawn interest. The latest report from Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reveals the Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, and St. Louis Cardinals are potential suitors for starting pitcher Zach Eflin.
Updated story on #Rays loss to #BlueJays. and whether it was Eflin’s last start before a trade. https://t.co/Bu6za76tbX
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) July 25, 2024
The Rays expect to have a pitching surplus with multiple arms returning from injuries. With one veteran starter already shipped out, Eflin could be another.
Zach Eflin Trade Suitors Include the Astros, Braves, and Cardinals
Eflin has struggled this year after breaking out in 2023, his first with the Rays. In 19 starts this season, the 30-year-old has tossed 110 innings and posted a 4.09 ERA (95 ERA+). Additionally, he has struggled to generate strikeouts and whiffs.
That said, metrics view Eflin’s performance a little more favorably. His excellent 2.8 walk percentage ranks in baseball’s 99th percentile. Plus, his chase rate is in the 87th percentile while various other metrics reveal he is inducing poor contact at solid rates.
Zach Eflin is good. Don't be fooled by ERA.
ERA: 4.09
FIP: 3.65
xERA: 3.37So the real ERA is higher than the others which indicates some bad luck and subpar defense behind him. K's down a bit this year compared to '23 but he is in the 99th percentile in walk rate so, yeah. https://t.co/ZuETFSV4xT
— Kevin Wheeler (@KevinWheeler94) July 25, 2024
Teams might have an idea of how to fix Eflin to get him back to his 2023 production. That season, the righty started 31 games and pitched 177 2/3 innings with a 3.50 ERA (118 ERA+). He produced a great walk rate and the second-best strikeout rate of his career.
It could be fair to wonder if that strikeout rate was unsustainable or an outlier. Eflin’s strikeout rate this year is much closer to his career average than last year’s rate. The ability to generate strikeouts is crucial in the postseason. This might deter teams from Eflin.
The veteran’s contract could represent another obstacle in making a trade. He is owed the remainder of his $11 million salary this year and will make $18 million next year.
Tampa Bay opened the season with a team record-high payroll. Teams often don’t have too much money to spend during this time of year. Also, The Rays likely don’t want to eat that much money in any potential deal. This could complicate trade discussions and push the timeline to the offseason.
The Best Fit to Trade for Eflin
Like most teams in the league, the Astros, Braves, and Cardinals have all been linked to pitching upgrades this summer. Plus, all three teams lack quality rotation depth for 2025 but still expect to contend. Eflin fits those teams since he could be the best controllable pitcher available on the trade market.
Among the trio, Houston and Atlanta have seen injuries crush their rotation depth. Cardinals starters have stayed healthy for the most part, but lack Eflin’s upside.
“I personally think the priority needs to be on starting pitching. I know they’ve had conversations about that…I think that will be the area of focus for the Braves before the deadline.”@Buster_ESPN @Braves pic.twitter.com/EBltGA6bnr
— The Next Round (@NextRoundLive) July 25, 2024
Additionally, St. Louis might be best positioned to match the Rays price, both financially and in prospect capital, among the three teams. Atlanta and Houston both support payrolls above the $237 million tax threshold. The Cardinals are over $20 million away from that threshold.
St. Louis has never shown a willingness to spend that much. However, leadership knows it will be heavily scrutinized if the team misses the postseason for a second straight season. This could give the front office extra motivation to acquire quality players and disregard the price.
Furthermore, the Braves and Astros have significantly weakened their farm systems after multiple consecutive years of winning. While most teams would make this tradeoff, it could present a real obstacle in any potential Eflin trade.
I think you could trade Dylan Carlson, Matthew Liberatore, and a prospect for a decent pitcher. It would give both of them a fresh start because they are not going to get any better on the @Cardinals watch.
— The Marmolade Has Gone Bad!! (@CoachFX) July 24, 2024
Though the Cardinals don’t have the deepest farm system, a 2023 sell-off improved it greatly. Plus, the Cardinals reportedly are willing to deal from a surplus of decent upside bats clogging the major league roster.
With the Rays likely looking to contend in 2025, receiving a package with major-league-ready talent from the Cardinals might be more enticing than whatever Houston or Atlanta can offer.
As the trade deadline approaches, the Rays’ decisions on players like Eflin will be crucial. Balancing immediate financial concerns with long-term competitiveness, Tampa Bay’s strategy could reshape its roster and influence the market, making it a team to watch closely in the coming weeks.
Main Photo: © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
