Third base depth has not been an issue for the Colorado Rockies for years thanks to Nolan Arenado. Sadly, that will change for 2021. The team will see a new face at the hot corner for the first time since 2012 when Chris Nelson handled the duties. It’s not good that Arenado is gone since he brings both above-average offense and the best glove in the game, but this is a position that Colorado has focused on for years in their drafts. There are plenty of possible heirs to Arenado’s crown.
Colorado Rockies Third Base Depth
Major League
Ryan McMahon will have first dibs on assuming third base duties. That is his natural position, but Arenado’s presence forced him to other spots in the past few years. The former second-round selection from 2013 has a career slash line of .237/314/423 along with 38 home runs. He’s a fine option despite being prone to three true outcomes; McMahon has struck out in 30.8 percent of career plate appearances and walked in 10.1 percent of them. Home runs, strikeouts, and free passes account for roughly 45 percent of his results at the plate. It’s not bad considering baseball as a whole does those three things frequently, but it’s a significant downgrade from Arenado’s approach.
The one area where McMahon should be good is on defense. He has nine defensive runs saved at third in 291 and one-third innings per Fangraphs. It’s fairly clear that McMahon can handle the action at the hot corner, even if he’ll never be quite as good as an eight-time Gold Glove winner.
AAA & AA
Colton Welker remains one of the team’s top prospects and has one of the best chances to take over at third long-term. It’s hard to know how the lack of a minor league season in 2020 affects the former fourth-round selection, but he should start 2021 in AAA. Welker performed well in 2019 with AA-Hartford. That is where the 23-year-old slashed .252/313/408 with 10 home runs. His power is only average and his glove might force him to first base eventually, but it’s hard to know until he plays again.
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It’s bad that Arenado was traded for a fairly light group of prospects, but it’s good that Elehuris Montero was one of them. The 22-year-old has some exciting tools including above-average raw power. Montero crushed minor league pitching up until 2019 when he ran into the common obstacle of AA pitching. He hit just .188/235/317 in 238 plate appearances. Getting the newest Rockies prospect on the field in either AA or AAA in 2021 is vital.
High A & Lower
The best prospect in the Rockies low minors is easily Aaron Schunk. Schunk is a 6’2, 205-pound infielder that Colorado drafted in the second round in 2019 out of Georgia. He has only appeared in Low-A ball, but smashed pitching to the tune of .306/370/503. He probably moves to the team’s new affiliate in Spokane for 2021. Schunk could move toward the majors fairly quickly given that he is already 23-years-old with what seems like an advanced bat. It’s not hard to imagine him pushing for primary third base duties in either 2022 or 2023.
Overall Thoughts
There is not an immediate and obvious replacement for a player of Arenado’s caliber. He is on-pace to garner serious Hall of Fame support whenever he decides to retire at this stage. Almost no team in baseball could replace him easily since he is great at both offense and defense.
And yet, this is one infield position that shouldn’t cause fans to wring their hands in consternation. It is much deeper than either first or second base and is one of the few bright spots in an otherwise average farm system. These players won’t prop the Rockies up all by themselves, but at least one of them will be part of the next core.
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