The New York Mets have played 44 games and have a 20-24 record. With 16 games left the Mets are heading into the stretch run. It’s crazy to say that any baseball team is heading into the stretch run after playing only 44 games. But this is Major League Baseball in 2020.
As we all know Major League Baseball has expanded the playoffs to eight teams just for this season—so far. So the 2020 playoff format consists of the top two teams in each division making the playoffs. The last two are wild card teams which means the next best two records fill out the eight-team playoff pool. The Mets are currently six games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves and three games behind the Philadelphia Phillies. So barring a hot streak which this Mets team has not been able to do they have to set their sights on the wild card.
The Mets are five games behind the Miami Marlins and two behind the San Francisco Giants in the loss column for the two wild-card spots. Additionally going into Friday’s games the Mets are percentage points behind both the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers who are two other teams New York has to jump over. Let’s not forget that the Mets are one game ahead of the Cincinnati Reds and two games in the loss column over the defending champion Washington Nationals. The National League wild-card race could be very entertaining for the next two and a half weeks.
Mets 2020 Season
The 2020 season for the Mets has been a model of inconsistency. There isn’t another team in all of MLB that can snatch a defeat from the jaws of victory quite like the Mets can. This team has not been able to go on a big hot streak that enables the Mets to gain some separation from their National League competitors. The Mets were last over five hundred way back on July 28th after winning two straight games in Fenway Park. At 3-2 the Mets were tied for first place then preceded to lose their next five games falling to four games back of the Braves.
Since then it has been an uphill battle trying to get back to five hundred. There have been mini winning streaks always followed by losing streaks to wipe out the wins. On August 17th the Mets were playing the Marlins in Miami when the bats woke up. After three games the Mets outscored the Marlins 24-10 all Met wins. Then COVID-19 hit the Mets and they were shut down for five days possibly killing their momentum.
Upon returning to the diamond the Marlins came to Queens and swept a doubleheader but the Mets rebounded and took the finale then went on to sweep the New York Yankees in a doubleheader in the first two games of a five-game set. Winning six games out of eight improved the Mets record to 15-16 and three games out of first place. More importantly, the Mets were one of the eight playoff teams. The Mets then went on to lose their next five games dropping their record to 15-21 and out of a playoff spot. The Mets best hot streak was wiped away by a five-game losing streak. Since then the Mets have gone 5-3 but still, there is lots of work to do.
Five Things To Watch in the Stretch Run
Starting Pitching Needs to Improve
Losing Noah Syndergaard in March and Marcus Stroman in July left the Mets with a huge hole in their starting rotation. This is the biggest problem the Mets will face in the next 16 games. The Mets only have one-off day to possibly maximize ace Jacob deGrom’s starts. As of right now he is scheduled to start four of the 16 remaining games. Seth Lugo who started the season in the bullpen and was closing games after Edwin Diaz faltered is now in the rotation. The Mets are stretching him out and in his last start, Lugo pitched five innings. It’s also possible Lugo gets four starts. But the rest of the rotation has been a mess.
Rookie David Peterson who pitched well early on in the season, spent some time on the Injured List. Upon returning he pitched out of the bullpen but is scheduled to follow Lugo in the rotation. it would not be out of the question to expect quality starts from all three pitchers with deGrom giving the Mets more Cy Young caliber starts. After those three pitchers, it’s panic time.
Rick Porcello has been bad pitching to a 6.07 ERA in nine starts. His WHIP is off the charts at 1.558. Michael Wacha has made only six starts due to injuries and his numbers are even worse than Porcello’s. Wacha is sporting a 7.50 ERA and a WHIP of 1.750. Steven Matz started the season in the rotation but he is on the injured list. He is due back on September 15th but was banished to the bullpen before getting hurt. It is likely he remains in the bullpen but could make a spot start if needed. The Mets season could hinge on the performance of two starting pitchers who have been terrible this season.
Edwin Diaz Needs to Be Stellar
In 2019 the bullpen was the number one reason why the Mets did not make the playoffs. To be more specific Diaz struggled so badly that he was replaced as the closer by the end of the season. In fact, his struggles last year made it necessary to keep Lugo in the bullpen just in case his struggles continued. After the second game of the season, Lugo took over as the closer. On the surface, Diaz’s numbers look to be stellar. In 19 innings Diaz has an ERA of 1,89 with 39 strikeouts. His WHIP of 1.316 is a little high for an elite closer but Diaz had been anything but elite for the Mets. Diaz is the key to the Mets bullpen and their hopes down the stretch.
The rest of the Mets bullpen has had their moments this season. But with so much uncertainty with the starters ability to pitch deep into the game, this bullpen needs to pick up the slack. Dellin Betances was signed to improve the back end of the bullpen but he was a disaster before being placed on the Injured List. He is due back next week and he must regain the form that made him a great reliever with the Yankees. If Diaz returns to form it will definitely settle down the rest of the bullpen.
Pete Alonso & Jeff McNeil
Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil were the two best position players on the Mets in 2019. Both players struggled early on in the season but look to be coming out of their funks. In eight September games, Alonso has hit five home runs with eight RBI. This is on the heels of hitting only six homers with 18 RBI in the first 35 games of the season. As we saw in 2019 Alonso can get on a home run streak and carry the team. The Mets are hoping the “Polar Bear” is back.
As for McNeil his slump has been very frustrating to watch. He has bounced around from thirdbase to second base and now has settled in at left field. Maybe all of the defensive shufflings contributed to his slump. But like Alonso when the calendar turned to September McNeil has broken out of his slump. In nine September games “The Squirrel” has 15 hits and 10 RBI. McNeil has seen his batting average rise from .269 to .315. He is also showing off the power he displayed in the second half of the 2019 season. McNeil has homered in four straight games going into Friday’s game.
When both Alonso and McNeil are hot this offense is capable of carrying the Mets despite the bad starting pitching. When you add in the offense that Dominic Smith and Michael Conforto have provided that would make this Mets lineup devastating.
Play The Hot Hand
This season more than ever we have seen many teams not be patient with some of their established players. Can you really blame them? In such a short MLB season no team can afford to wait for their players to start to hit. So Mets manager Luis Rojas needs to keep playing the hot hand. If that means Amed Rosario sits the bench behind rookie Andres Gimenez then so be it. The same with Wilson Ramos and new catcher Robinson Chirinos. If Robinson Cano gets into a funk the Mets have the players to replace the All-Star. The same goes for any of the bullpen arms. The Mets have no margin for error so Rojas can’t manage with his heart.
Navigate A Tough Remaining Schedule
The Mets remaining schedule is not easy. It begins with a three-game series vs the Toronto Blue Jays in Buffalo. The Blue Jays are fighting for their own playoff spot and have a young and dynamic roster. Next up is a trip to Philadelphia for a three-game set. The Mets then return home to Queens for three-game series against a pair of division-leading teams in the Tampa Bay Rays and the Braves. Finally, the Mets close out the year in the Nation’s Capitol against the Nationals who could be in the spoiler role. As you can see the competition is stellar with four teams who are currently sitting in playoff spots.
Outlook
If the Mets are going to make a playoff run the time is now. This is not a news flash by any stretch. But with a 20-24 record, there is no margin for error. It is impossible to predict what number of wins the Mets need to have to make the playoffs. Currently, the two wild card teams are sitting one game over five hundred. So it is possible to finish 30-30 and make the playoffs. That is something you don’t want to shoot for,
If the Mets win each of the five series down the stretch their final record would be 31 -29. That is a very tall order for a team that has not won consecutive series all year long. There may be too many moving parts that need to fall into place for the Mets to make the playoffs. That is assuming their own moving parts get aligned. The Mets could finish the season strong and still not make the playoffs just like they did last year.
Every team has bad losses but the Mets seem to be the masters of this. But in a 60-game season, those losses get magnified. Such as July 31st in Atlanta blowing a 10-6 lead in the 8th inning. Or August 30th in Yankee Stadium blowing a five-run lead in the last inning. The clock is ticking for the Mets and now is the time to turn it on.
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