The Houston Astros playoff odds are as good as they’ve ever been. After dominating the trade deadline, major analytic websites are bullish on Houston’s odds to win their second World Series in three years. According to Fangraphs, Houston has a 27.2% chance to win the World Series and a 99.9% chance to win the division.
Houston Astros Playoff Odds: Still World Series Favorites
The Astros high odds shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. The team has been arguably the best all-around unit in the game since 2017 and has the most wins in all of major league baseball. With the New York Yankees desperately needing starting pitching, the Astros are clearly the class of the American League. The Astros are the World Series favorite by quite a bit, as the Dodgers are their 17.3% chance is the next-closest on the list.
Baseball Reference isn’t quite as bullish on the Astros, as that site gives Houston “just” an 18.3% chance to win it all. This is actually less than the Dodgers’ 22.6% chance, but it’s still second-best in baseball. This is likely due to the higher depth in the American League compared to the National League. The Dodgers are the only elite NL team, while the Astros are joined by the Yankees and Twins as the best of the best. If Houston wants to win the World Series, they’ll need to take down two or three teams of similar caliber, whereas the Dodgers only need to take out one.
Fangraphs tends to believe that one-season success cannot be sustained and players will fall back to their career averages, while Baseball Reference places more value on what happens in-season. Cody Bellinger and several other Dodgers are having ridiculous seasons, and Fangraphs doesn’t believe that this success can continue. Only time will tell which projection is correct.
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