The Pittsburgh Pirates extended right-handed starter Mitch Keller to a five-year, $77 million deal before Spring Training 2024. At the time, the Pirates looked like they were locking down a rotation anchor for years to come. For the last four years, that’s what Keller has looked like: a solid rotation anchor. However, fans are starting to feel buyer’s remorse in 2026 as the right-hander struggles. However, there is still a good chance the Pirates can get out from under his remaining contract.
The Pirates Can Still Get Mitch Keller’s Contract Off Their Books
A Reliable Middle Rotation Arm Going Into 2026
Keller was about as reliable as they come going into 2026. From 2022 through 2025, he posted a 4.15 ERA, 103 ERA+, a 3.94 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP over 707.2 innings pitched. He only had a 21.9% K%, but a solid 7.1% BB% and a 1.06 HR/9 ratio. While Keller never dazzled for an entire season, you could count on him to end the year with an ERA+ hovering around 100, and starting about 31 games a season.
Keller took on one of baseball’s highest workloads during these four seasons. Only 11 pitchers threw at least 700 innings during 2022 through 2025. Of those 11, very few posted respectable results. Just eight posted an ERA+ of 100 or greater, while having a FIP of 4.00 or lower. Keller ranked among those eight hurlers.
A Poor 2026 Season Thus Far
Keller has tallied 100.1 innings over 18 starts this year. In that time, he has logged a 5.02 ERA, 4.39 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP. He still has a solid 7.7% walk rate and 1.08 HR/9, but his 17.3% K% is currently a career low. Both his 89.2 MPH exit velocity and 7.3% barrel rate are not much different from his 2022-2025 numbers (88.6 MPH, 7.7%).
Now granted, Keller likely isn’t as bad as his ERA suggests. His FIP, along with his 4.52 xFIP and 4.68 SIERA, suggest he’s closer to a mid-4.00 ERA starter than a starter with an ERA over 5.00. He has a 63.9% left-on-base rate, compared to 71.9% from 2022 through 2025. That is something that can fluctuate in small sample sizes. However, his xFIP and SIERA are both the highest marks he has posted since 2021.
The Concerns Aren’t Just From This Year
Having a down year is one thing, but many of his underlying pitch metrics have steadily declined since 2023. During that season, Keller’s fastball averaged 95.1 MPH. The next season, his average fastball velo came in at 94.5. 2025 saw yet another downtick in velocity, this time to 94.1 MPH. His fastball is now sitting at 93.4 MPH, the slowest he has thrown it since 2021, a season in which he posted a 6.17 ERA.
FanGraphs’ Stuff+ metric also continues to dwindle on Keller. The stat once looked bullish, with a 107 mark in 2023. He fell to league average in 2024 at 100, a seven-point drop. That fell another six points to just 94 last year. Now, he is sitting at just 92. It has gotten particularly bad since early May, with a 90 Stuff+ since May 5th.
Can The Pirates Salvage Keller?
Believe it or not, the Pirates can probably still get the contract off the books. Keller can still do one thing reliably: take the ball every four or five days and give a team six innings of work. He is owed just over $28 million over the next two years, and MLB teams are paying top dollar, even for back-of-the-rotation-type arms.
Last offseason, the likes of Chris Bassitt, Nick Martinez, and Dustin May all received at least $12 million contracts. Merrill Kelly received a two-year, $40 million contract, even though he was entering his age-37 season. This isn’t limited to just the 2025-2026 offseason either. During the 2024-2025 offseason, Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matt Boyd, Nick Pivetta, and Tomoyuki Sugano all signed for $12 million AAV or more.
The Pirates are also capable of offloading a contract like this. During last year’s trade deadline, they found a taker for Ke’Bryan Hayes’ remaining three years, with $29 million guaranteed. There is arguably a better chance the Pirates have at offloading Keller’s contract than Hayes’ at the time. Hayes had constant back problems prior to the Pirates trading him, completely reworking his hitting mechanics the previous offseason to try to correct them. He was also under contract for longer, even if the overall money is similar to Keller. Meanwhile, the veteran starter has no questionable ailments as far as the public knows and is under contract for only two more seasons. A team looking to rebuild and looking for someone to eat innings with the potential to become better
Unfortunate End To Another Extension
The Pirates’ first two major extensions under Ben Cherington are not ending as they hoped. They’ll likely look to dump Keller for whatever they can get back. The money he is owed over the next two seasons can likely be better spent, like re-signing Brandon Lowe and adding some bullpen help next offseason. While Keller is struggling and his metrics are declining, there is probably at least one team that the Pirates could find to take on his remaining salary.
Main Photo: Charles LeClaire- Imagn Images
