Colorado Rockies star shortstop Ezequiel Tovar is coming off a career-low 95 games last season due to injury. Following consecutive seasons in which he played in at least 153 games. Due to the injuries, Tovar struggled to ever get in a rhythm, and the Rockies’ porous offense sorely missed his production. Getting a healthy Tovar back would presumably be one of the keys for Rockies’ improvement this season. But the Rockies have still managed to improve significantly from last season, despite Tovar’s production missing from the lineup. Thanks in large part to the newcomers the Rockies added this offseason. But the Rockies’ improvement becomes much more sustainable if Tovar can return to form.
Ezequiel Tovar’s April Showers
Ideally, Tovar will get his May flowers and put his awful April behind him. His April actually followed an excellent start to the season in five March games. He hit .318/.318/.545 with an excellent .864 OPS. Recording at least one hit in each game, including three hits, two doubles, three RBI, and two runs in a 14-5 road win over the Toronto Blue Jays on March 30. The Tovar Rockies fans have come to know during his Rockies career. But then came the April showers.
In 87 April at-bats, Tovar has just 14 hits, six doubles, one RBI, and three BBs to 28 Ks. He has a putrid .436 OPS with zero homers in April. His 29 WRC+ is ahead of only Jordan Beck (20 WRC+) among Rockies players with at least 20 plate appearances. Per Statmuse, in Tovar’s last 15 games, he has gone 5-49 with just one extra base hit and 18 Ks to two BBs. Continuing a power outage from last season. Since August 1 of last year, he has hit just four home runs.
Tovar has shown that power can be a significant part of his game. He led the Rockies with 26 home runs in 2024. He also routinely hits doubles down the left-field line at Coors when he is right. Hitting a combined 82 doubles during 2023-24, with a career-high 45 doubles coming in 2024. Tovar will always be one of the best defensive players on the Rockies, earning a Gold Glove in 2024. But he has a very high ceiling as an offensive player as well, especially at Coors. So what has gone wrong for him in 2026?
What Has Gone Wrong for Ezequiel Tovar This Season?
Per Statcast, Tovar is still among the best in baseball with an LA Sweet-Spot % of 42.7%. But throughout his career, Tovar has been in the bottom three percent of baseball in chase rate. He currently has a chase rate of 48.7%, which is in the bottom one percent league-wide. Tovar’s 59.6% first-swing rate leads Major League Baseball by a decent margin. It is up 12.9% from last season, the third biggest increase in the MLB. Tovar was fourth in his career year in 2024 with a 50% first-swing rate. So it is by no means a sole indicator of Tovar’s struggles this season. But when the production is not happening, it becomes more glaring.
Two of the biggest problems exacerbating his aggressive approach? His 29.8% K rate and 2.6% BB rate. Up from 25.1% and down from 5.4% last season, respectively. He has not drawn a single walk since April 15. In that same time span, he has struck out 14 times in 43 at-bats. He is especially struggling against the fastball. Tovar has seen 165 four-seam fastballs this year. He has just a .114 batting average and a .171 slug% in those at-bats. Additionally, he has a 45.7% K rate, 36.2% whiff rate, and 26.2% put-away rate against four-seamers. All three are significantly up from last season.
Possible Turnaround Coming?
As a result, Tovar’s -10 batting run value is in the bottom one percent league-wide. His xBA has dropped from .261 last season to .239 this year. He is in one of the worst slumps of his career. Barring a turnaround, it will go on if he continues to struggle mightily against the fastball. But it is still just over a month into the season. Tovar has proven in his career that he is a much better hitter than this. He may not reach the heights of 2024, but he is way better than a player hitting below the Mendoza line. April is almost over. Hopefully, by season’s end, it will be looked back on as by far the worst month of Tovar’s season.
Main Photo Credit: Denis Poroy- Imagn Images
