When you think of National League Cy Young Award candidates, Pittsburgh Pirates’ right-hander Paul Skenes is likely the first name that comes to mind, having won his first career Cy Young in 2025. Last year’s finalists, Cristopher Sánchez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, are also frontrunners. Two-way star Shohei Ohtani is throwing his hat in the ring now. But one name that isn’t getting talked about enough is one of Skenes’ rotation-mates, Braxton Ashcraft. He has just as good a chance early on in 2026 as anyone.
Braxton Ashcraft Becoming Sleeper Candidate for NL Cy Young
An Unheralded Rookie Season
Ashcraft overcame multiple injuries that sidelined him for most of 2020 through 2022. The former 2018 second-round pick re-established himself as a top pitching prospect with a breakout 2023 in the minors, then made his presence known in the big leagues in 2025. Ashcraft’s rookie year flew completely under the radar. In 69 2/3 innings, the right-hander worked to a 2.71 ERA, 2.78 FIP, and 1.249 WHIP. He had a respectable 24.3% K% and 8.2% BB%, and excelled at limiting home runs and hard contact. Ashcraft only allowed 0.39 home runs per nine innings, while ranking in the top 80th percentile of exit velocity (88 MPH) and the top 94th percentile of barrel percentage (4.6%).
Ashcraft pitched so well as a multi-inning reliever that the Pirates moved him into the rotation at the end of the year. He was flat-out dominant in his last eight appearances (where seven were starts). His final 36 1/3 innings yielded a 2.23 ERA, a 29.1% strikeout percentage, and a free pass rate of just 8.1%. Despite Ashcraft’s outstanding first season in the major leagues, he did not receive a single Rookie of the Year vote.
One of the Best NL Starters So Far
Ashcraft didn’t let the lack of recognition stop his momentum heading into 2026. Throughout his first five starts and 29 2/3 innings of the year, the right-hander has a 2.43 ERA, has struck out 27.6% of batters he has faced, and has a solid 7.8% walk rate. Home runs continue to be a non-issue, allowing just one long ball and putting up a 4.1% barrel percentage. The only stats on Ashcraft’s Baseball Savant page that are below the 75th percentile are exit velocity (89 MPH, 51st percentile), walk rate, and ground ball percentage (50%, 72nd percentile).
Braxton Ashcraft, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/H0yc0xst9T
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 23, 2026
Ashcraft is among the best of many important stats among his National League peers throughout the first few weeks of the 2026 season. He ranks 11th in ERA, 6th in FIP (2.44), and his 19.8% K-BB% ranks 8th. ERA estimators also love his body of work so far. His 3.30 xFIP, 3.27 SIERA, and 2.06 xERA are top 10 among qualified NL starters. The only NL pitchers with more fWAR than his 1.0 mark are Ohtani and Sánchez, who both sit at 1.1. Ashcraft is pitching just as much as anyone else in the NL. His innings pitched total is the seventh best in the league and only 5 2/3 innings behind the league leader, Sandy Alcantara.
A Cy Young Finalist?
It’s still very early into the new campaign, but Ashcraft has been as dominant as anyone since making his MLB debut last May. Only nine pitchers have had at least 95 innings pitched, have made at least a dozen starts, and have put up an ERA+ of 160 or greater in the last two seasons. All of them received Cy Young votes last year, except for Ashcraft. With how good a start he has had to 2026, it wouldn’t be a shock if he were a National League Cy Young finalist by the end of the year.
Main Photo Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
