There’s been a lot of talk around the Tampa Bay Rays and their use of “small-ball” to begin the year. They’ve been bunting, making contact, and stealing lots of bases. But it’s always interesting to discuss and break down different styles of play. Because analytics isn’t trying to shame any form of the game, it’s trying to see what’s the most effective way to play the game. So while the Rays might be playing a certain way, it’s because it’s the best way to do so with their current roster. But let’s get into how exactly they’re playing, and if they truly are a “small ball” team in 2026.
Rays Employing Small Ball Approach on the Way to First Place
Are The Rays Mashing, or Making a Lot of Contact as a Team?
The short answer is that the Rays are making a lot of contact. Not a lot of hard contact, but they’re putting the ball in play. They rank in the bottom half of the league in most quality of contact marks. They have the lowest barrel rate and the 2nd-lowest xwOBA. The team is also dead last in hard-hit rate, and is 3rd-to-last in average exit velocity. So no, they’re not exactly tearing the cover off the ball.
They are also making more contact than anyone else in baseball. They have the lowest whiff rate in the game. So, an overly simplistic way of putting it is: yes, they’re a “small ball” team. Compared to other teams in baseball, at least. But what they’re also doing is getting good pitches to hit when they do swing. Their “meatball” swing rate (exactly what it sounds like) is in the top third of baseball. Plus, they’re in the top five in on-base percentage as a team, and their slugging percentage is in the top 10.
Are They Running the Bases Well?
To provide another short answer: yes. Their base running runs as a team is the third-best figure in baseball. They’re tied for fourth in total stolen bases. It’s still too early to dive too deep into it, but the Rays are proving to be one of the faster teams in baseball. While one player (who will be discussed below) does a lot of the heavy lifting in that regard, they have the third-highest “speed score” in the game. The Rays’ aggressiveness on the base paths has always been a calling card for them. This season, they just happen to have the personnel to deploy that strategy more often. Excluding their corner infielders and the catching spot, they can post lineups where everyone in the lineup is a stolen base threat.
Who’s Contributing to Their “Small Ball” Reputation the Most?
Many folks point to Chandler Simpson as the best example of the Rays’ “small ball” approach. And it makes sense. Simpson has among the lowest whiff and strikeout rates in the game. But he also has an incredibly high “squared-up” rate, meaning he’s doing the most with his swings. More importantly, he has transformed himself into not just a fine defensive outfielder, but quite a good one. Both outs above average and defensive runs saved have him among the best left fielders in baseball. He has put it all together early on to become one of the Rays’ best players so far in 2026.
Simpson’s usual elite baserunning makes him an excellent player for many reasons. But sure, his use of bunts and singles is a part of that. As for the other great Rays hitters, they’re a bit more of the traditional masher type of guys.
How Are the Rays’ Best Hitters Performing?
Yandy Díaz has been their best hitter so far this season. He’s doing so the way he always has, with elite plate discipline, contact, and quality of contact. There’s not much more to say about the veteran that hasn’t already been said. He’s got a 191 wRC+ and is a big reason the Rays are in first place in the powerful and competitive American League East.
Jonathan Aranda hasn’t put up nearly the production as some others in the lineup. Fortunately, his luck is bound to turn around. He’s putting together his usual brand of good at-bat and is hitting the ball hard, with an 86th percentile average exit velocity. It hasn’t translated to immediate success; his .245 BABIP has a lot to do with his on-paper struggles. But he’s not exactly a “move the ball around” type of guy. He’s got enough power to be one of the better hitters in baseball, to go with his excellent hit tool.
Jonathan Aranda with his second career walk-off – both coming vs. the Yankees! pic.twitter.com/td1CGcekBE
— MLB (@MLB) April 12, 2026
That brings up Junior Caminero, the most well-known Ray on this roster. He’s been fine, showing off that elite bat speed and posting a .803 OPS. But there’s some work to be done to get back to last year’s heater. For whatever reason, he’s not quite mashing as much as he was last year. Most of his quality of contact marks have taken a step back. But the good news is that he’s young, he’s still swinging just as hard as ever, and he has the talent to get back to last year’s production. By doing that, he could earn himself a long-term extension from the Rays.
The Last Word
While the Rays are playing a small-ball brand of baseball to start the year, they might not be for long. Their best hitters are due for some regression, both positive and negative (in the case of Yandy Díaz). Their best hitters aren’t going to be bunting a whole lot. And if they’re hitting well, it doesn’t matter as much what the rest of the lineup is doing. But hey, it’s hard to argue that they’re a fun watch right now. Baseball is at its best when it’s being played this way.
Main Photo Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
