Cincinnati Reds third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes has never been known for his bat. However, his struggles at the start of 2026 have reached a level beyond comprehension. Contradictorily, he may not be as bad as the numbers are showing. Let’s dig deep to see what kind of voodoo magic has taken hold of him since Opening Day, and what he can do to shake it off.
Ke’Bryan Hayes Off to Baffling Start at the Plate for the Reds
Season Defining Slump?
Hayes’ stats this year jump off the page, just not in the way you’d hope. In 20 games this year, he has a .305 OPS and -15 wRC+. Hayes was never a guy who stacked up WAR on a season-to-season basis, with his career high being 3.2 fWAR in 2023. However, he is already at -0.6 fWAR this year despite being a net positive on defense, which shows just how bad he’s been at the plate. Fancy wording and analysis aside for a moment, here’s a proven practice that never fails: Anytime an OPS looks like a batting average (a bad batting average at that in Hayes’ case), it can be labeled as a massive slump.
How? Why?
Now that we’ve established the extent of Hayes’ struggles, it’s time to conduct an autopsy to understand the how and why. Looking at his season projections first, they’re surprisingly not as bad as one would think. With a .313 xwOBA (47th percentile), .235 xBA (42nd percentile), and a .401 xSLG (51st percentile), Hayes is actually hitting the ball more on par with a league-average to slightly below league-average hitter.
Next up are the strikeouts and walks. Oftentimes, a glance at these two during a player’s slump can determine whether they’re due for a breakout or not. Looking at Hayes has a 9.2 K% (98th percentile), meaning he’s almost never striking out, and with a 9.2 BB% (46th percentile), he’s drawing walks at about a league average to slightly below league average rate, which is surprisingly good considering his hitting profile. In fact, his plate discipline has looked great all season, as he has an 18.6 Whiff% (81st percentile) and a 25.0 Chase% (74th percentile).
This Ke’Bryan Hayes unlucky thing is getting a bit out of hand…. pic.twitter.com/I7pKhqYCW3
— Chatterbox Sports (@CBoxSports) April 16, 2026
The Light at the End of the Tunnel
With the basic numbers out of the way, there may be some more signs of Hayes’ (hopefully) inevitable return to normalcy. The hope is that he can crawl his way to a 75 wRC+, which would still be below league average, but it would be an acceptable number due to Hayes’ defensive prowess.
Looking at exit velocity first, we can see that Hayes is averaging 90.2 MPH, which, if he keeps up for the whole year, would be his highest mark since 2023. If my eyes aren’t deceiving me, 2023 coincidentally is the best offensive season of his career (excluding the 24 games in 2020). That year, Hayes registered a 101 wRC+, which is the only time in his career when he was above league average at the plate for a full season. With his exit velocity closer to that of his career year, perhaps there is hope for league-average offensive production.
Another positive when comparing the similarities between his 2023 breakout to his current 2026 slump is that his LA Sweet-Spot% is currently at 35.8%, while it was 34.1% in 2023. For a guy who has always hovered around 30.0%, this is another encouraging sign that Hayes can right the ship. Finally, Hayes’ Barrel% is currently at 7.5, which, you guessed it, is the highest since 2023, when he had a 7.4 Barrel%. Funnily enough, a lot of signs are pointing at Hayes being a much better hitter than he was in the past two seasons, yet his numbers so far have shown the opposite.
If Ke’Bryan Hayes can become close to league average, it cannot be overstated enough just how helpful that would be for this Reds lineup.
Main Photo Credit: © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
