After the San Diego Padres exited the 2025 postseason in a heartbreaking loss to the Chicago Cubs, the immediate worry for the club was the starting rotation. With the departures of Dylan Cease and Michael King in free agency, the Friars were scrambling to find pitching help.
They began to solve that problem by re-signing King to a 3-year, $75 million deal. That along with the return of Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove helped solidify a formidable front half to the starting group.
But behind that it gets shaky. Shakier still with the report that Musgrove may not be ready by Opening Day.
General Manager A.J. Preller has helped to assuage the questions of depth in the starting group, bringing on Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, Marco Gonzales, Germán Márquez, and Triston McKenzie on smaller deals this offseason. Already in the Friars’ system are JP Sears, Randy Vásquez, and knuckleballer Matt Waldron.
Penciled In Fourth
As Opening Day marches closer, the Padres’ rotation picture continues to become clearer. It’s been reported since quite early in the offseason that Vásquez has the inside track on the fourth starter role. With the news of Musgrove’s stalled return, he’d start the season third behind Pivetta and King.
Vásquez easily earned that spot last season when he put up a career year with San Diego. He finished with a 3.84 ERA in a career-high 26 starts, taking the mound consistently for the Friars.
He’s done even more to earn the role during Cactus League play. In three starts thus far, Vásquez has notched a 2.08 ERA in 8 ⅔ innings. All while holding a 1.04 WHIP, limiting batters to a combined nine walks/hits this spring.
Depth Pieces Give Stability to Starting Group
But…Injuries Remove Some Options
Behind those four there remains one spot between Buehler, Canning, Gonzales, Márquez, McKenzie, Sears, and Waldron. However, another spot would open up if Musgrove starts the season with a short stint on the injured list.
Canning will open the season on the injured list while continuing to recover from the ruptured left Achilles tendon that ended his ‘25 season with the New York Mets. Waldron has also been sidelined due to an injury he suffered earlier this spring.
Remaining Starting Opportunities for San Diego
That leaves Buehler, Gonzales, Márquez, McKenzie, and Sears. Unfortunately Sears and McKenzie have struggled this spring, posting a 9.45 and 12.46 ERA, respectively.
The longtime Colorado Rockies ace, Márquez, signed a big-league deal with the Friars and will have to be with the club on Opening Day. Beyond that necessity he’s managed to put up a decent 5.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 5.0 innings of Cactus League play.
Germán Márquez, Nasty 87mph Knuckle Curve…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/smu9L1YaU4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 31, 2025
Of the two remaining, Buehler seems to be the favorite for the fifth spot over Gonzales. He’s certainly not the same pitcher that finished fourth in the 2021 NL Cy Young voting, but he’s serviceable.
Walker Buehler this afternoon in his spring debut for the Padres
7 whiffs
33.3% whiff rate & 36.0% chase rate
Four-Seamer sat at 92.4 mphSweeper averaged -13.3” HB while generating 50% chase rate pic.twitter.com/cwy14jboDo
— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) March 5, 2026
In his start against the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday, Buehler pitched 3 ⅔ innings for the Padres. He surrendered two runs on five hits and struck out two batters. Certainly nothing spectacular but it was solid.
If Márquez and Buehler can rediscover their pre-Tommy John form (even to a small degree), the Friars will suddenly have one of the better rotations in MLB.
The Final Picture on Opening Day
Because of all these factors (injury, Cactus League performance, etc.), the Opening Day starting group will probably look something like this:
- Nick Pivetta
- Michael King
- Randy Vásquez
- Germán Márquez
- Walker Buehler
Once Musgrove returns he’ll slot into that third spot and bump the rest down, with Buehler likely going down to Triple-A El Paso. It’s always possible he pitches well enough to earn starts over Márquez with the big-league club.
San Diego has talked about the idea of a six-man rotation but will probably stick to five so that they don’t have to give up a pitcher from their elite bullpen.
However the starting group ends up, it will certainly be an interesting year for San Diego. Without the obvious depth many teams have, the Friars will be forced to rely more on their relief corps and their bats to get the job done.
Otherwise they’ll join the long line of Padres teams to fall short in the pursuit of that elusive World Series ring.
(Top Image Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images)
