Deep Dive into Former Astros Top Prospect Jacob Melton

When the Rays gave up Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Mason Montgomery, there was confusion as to why they had to give up so much. B-Lowe is a massive upgrade for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Why would the Rays have to give up a solid, albeit limited,  bench outfielder? Plus a high-upside left-handed reliever?

Deep Dive into Former Astros Top Prospect Jacob Melton

After looking deeper into the upside of the guy they got back, it’s a bit more understandable.

Jacob Melton is not Jonny DeLuca defensively at center. But he has the upside of a left-handed, center field version of Carson Williams.

High praise, and his being left-handed is a much bigger deal than some folks probably realize, but it’s earned. Here’s a breakdown as to why that is the case.

Jacob Melton’s Strengths

Melton’s status as an above-average defender at such a premium position like center is a big deal.

The dream is for Melton and Williams to be a pair of borderline Gold Glove-caliber defenders up the middle, anchoring the Rays for years to come.

Of course, that’s dreaming mighty high for a couple of guys with some pretty glaring flaws. But to keep the focus on strengths, Melton also happens to hit the ball as hard as anyone in the minors.

Last season at the Triple-A level, while still with the Houston Astros, Melton posted impressive quality-of-contact marks.

His expected stats, xwOBA and xSLG, were both excellent. He posted 96th- and 95th-percentile barrel and hard-hit rates. Plus, to show his daunting upside, Melton’s Maximum Exit Velocity was a robust 113 MPH off the bat.

Add in some above-average speed, and Melton is quite a player in terms of raw tools. The good news about Melton, unlike Williams, is that his contact rates and plate discipline are above-average. His strikeout rate of 20% isn’t perfect, but it is decent enough to play at the big-league level.

Melton’s Shortcomings

Now, after reading that previous section, it’s tempting to say, “Man, this guy doesn’t really have many holes in his game.”

And that’s not entirely wrong, and part of the reason the Rays had to give up so much to get him. He does have those “above-average” hit and plate discipline tools. And those elite, eye-popping power numbers from 2025 were fun. But his 2024 at Triple-A was underwhelming to say the least.

This doesn’t suggest that his improvements in 2025 should be totally thrown out. He had about the same amount of playing time in each season, so sample size isn’t the issue.

The real question is how sustainable his steps forward last season were and whether he can make them translate to the bigs.

That’s true for every prospect, but with such an extreme disparity between his highs and lows, it’s even more true with Melton.

Consistency is his biggest flaw, and that’s not exactly a tool or a skill. It’s not something to be worked on in one of those labs or performance factories. Consistency is something that comes with more playing time and experience.

It’s not a reflection on his work ethic or personality, simply a statement of how fleeting baseball skill can be, much like life or love. Ok, maybe that’s too heavy-handed for a prospect write-up.

Regardless, Melton can certainly be a productive player for the Rays if he can carry over the momentum from 2025 into this year.

Upside Player Comparison: 2023 Michael Harris II

Michael Harris had a very good season in 2023, managing to be a 3.9-win player according to fWAR.

He did so by hitting nearly 20 bombs, posting a .331 OBP, and playing a good center field. Harris also ran the bases pretty well.

This type of overall, across-the-board performance, where a player contributes a good bit in every category, is what Melton can bring to the table at his best.

If he turns out to be as good as Harris II was in 2023, the Rays will have easily won the Brandon Lowe deal.

Floor Player Comparison: 2024 Jose Siri

Ah, Jose Siri, what an enticing but frustrating player. He had power for days and an elite glove.

Unfortunately, he also had no discernible approach at the plate. He also seemed to have very exploitable holes in his swing.

In 2023, Siri hit enough home runs and got enough base hits to be an above-average hitter. Combined with his great glove, he was a valuable member of that playoff team.

2024’s version saw a 10% spike in strikeout rate and a 28-point drop in wRC+.

Siri was dealt to the Mets before 2025 and is now with the Angels.

Luckily for Melton, he has enough of a glove to potentially stick around as a 4th outfielder even if he doesn’t quite hit.

Melton has the pop to hit dingers like Siri. The hope is that his bat is a bit better, so he doesn’t have the strikeouts and cold streaks.