When the Pittsburgh Pirates called up Esmerlyn Valdez earlier this season, they were likely hoping he could provide some thump in the lineup. After all, the top prospect had back-to-back 20+ homer seasons in 2024 and 2025 in the Pirates’ system.
Valdez earned an opportunity for more regular playing time after injuries sidelined some key Pirates players, and he has completely blown away any previously set expectations. In his first 32 games/122 plate appearances, Valdez is hitting .306/.377/.750, with a .464 wOBA and a 196 wRC+. He has 13 home runs on the season, with an isolated slugging percentage of .444. For reference, Barry Bonds had a .442 ISO from 2000 through 2004.
Valdez is doing unprecedented things at the plate right now. His power output is nothing short of astounding and is making history for a rookie at the start of their Major League career. How long will it last? Who knows; however, there is one player who compares very favorably to Valdez so far this year: the 2025 American League Rookie of the Year winner, Nick Kurtz.
Nick Kurtz and Esmerlyn Valdez Have More Similarities Than You Think
Kurtz obliterated the ball last year. He hit .290/.383/.619 with a .419 wOBA, and 170 wRC+. He went yard 36 times through just 489 plate appearances. His surface numbers obviously lead to comparisons to Valdez, given how good they are; however, that’s not where the similarities end. If anything, a look under the hood only makes Valdez and Kurtz look even more similar.
Two of the Strongest Hitters in the Sport?
Both Valdez and Kurtz have shown very similar raw power, and in some cases, Valdez has shown more. The Pirates’ top rookie has a 93.1 MPH exit velocity, 55.6% hard hit rate, and a 28.6% barrel rate. Meanwhile, Kurtz had a 92.7 MPH exit velo, 51.1% hard hit rate, and an 18.5% barrel rate. Valdez’s top 50th percentile exit velocity (the average of a batter’s top 50% batted ball exit velocities) is 104.6 MPH this year, while Kurtz came in at a similar 104 MPH mark in 2025. Expected numbers also put both in similar territory.
Kurtz finished out his rookie year with a .372 xwOBA, .537 xSLG%, albeit with a .245 xBA. Valdez has a very similar .364 xwOBA and an even better .560 xSLG%. He also struggled in the xBA department, with a .223 mark. Still, Valdez is within ten points of Kurtz’s xwOBA from 2025, and his xSLG% is nearly 30 points higher.
Similar Levels of Plate Discipline
Kurtz and Valdez have similarities when it comes to swing decisions as well. Valdez has a chase rate of 24.5%, which is only slightly higher than Kurtz’s 22.8% chase rate last year. Both sluggers struggled to limit whiffs. Valdez has a whiff% of 39.6%, while Kurtz sat at 36.8%. Valdez has a 31.8% called and swinging strike rate, nearly identical to Kurtz’s CSW% of 31.1%.
Valdez generates plenty of power from his 75 MPH bat speed, which isn’t too far off from Kurtz’s 77.4 MPH bat speed in 2025. Kurtz’s swing length came in at 7.7 feet last season, while Valdez was also in the same ballpark at 7.9 feet. Both Valdez and Kurtz have an attack angle of 14 degrees in their respective rookie seasons.
Park Factors at Play
The one thing that makes Valdez’s hot start look even better than Kurtz’s rookie season is the park factors. Kurtz will be an All-Star caliber hitter or better in any field he plays in, but he played half of his contests last year in Sutter Health Park. It had the highest park factor in baseball at 114. The next closest, Colorado’s notorious Coors Field, has a park factor of 110. PNC Park is still a hitter-friendly environment, but it’s park factor is 105, nearly 10 points lower than the A’s home park right now.
Does that mean that Valdez is going to be the next Kurtz? We’ll see. After all, we’re looking at a sample size of less than 150 plate appearances. However, there are clear similarities between the two, especially in simple metrics like plate discipline, swing mechanics, and raw power. It is undoubtedly a good foundation for Valdez to build off of and to start his MLB career.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
