The Pittsburgh Pirates were hoping Dennis Santana could continue to be a highly effective high-leverage reliever in 2026. After all, he became a lights-out late-inning arm in 2024 and 2025. However, that has not happened this season. In 40 2/3 innings, the right-hander has a 6.20 ERA, a 5.54 FIP, and a 1.52 WHIP. He has only struck out 20.2% of batters, with an 11.5% BB rate. He has also become very prone to home runs, with a 1.77 HR/9 ratio. However, this complete downturn wasn’t out of the blue if you looked beyond the bottom line, and it didn’t just start this year, so where did it all go wrong for Santana?
Dennis Santana’s Decline Was Predictable Well Before This Season Started
Outstanding Reliever Entering 2026
Let’s first examine how we got to this point. The Pirates first acquired Santana off waivers from the New York Yankees in June 2024. The right-hander was a former top-ten prospect in the LA Dodgers’ system, but had struggled to find his footing in Major League Baseball. He did not make a great first impression, allowing six earned runs in one inning in Colorado during just his second game in black and gold. However, he completely locked in after that.
Santana finished out the year tossing 42 2/3 more innings while working to the tune of a 1.27 ERA, 1.97 FIP, and 0.82 WHIP. He struck out nearly a third of opposing batters with a 31.1% K rate and only handed out a free pass at a 5.6% rate. Opponents could not get bat-to-ball vs Santana.
He had a 33.3% whiff rate, the 18th highest mark among any pitcher who faced at least 150 batters from June 17th onward (the day before his third game as a Pirate). When opponents did make contact, it was rarely ever good. He had just an 84.3 MPH exit velocity (3rd lowest) and a 2% barrel rate (tied for the lowest). His FanGraphs Stuff+ during this stretch was 103.
Santana only continued to post strong bottom-line numbers in 2025. He tallied a 2.18 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 0.87 WHIP while pitching 70 1/3 innings last year. Only ten relievers in 2025 threw at least 70 innings while posting an ERA under 2.50. Among those ten, Santana, Tyler Rogers, and Adrián Morejón were the only ones with a WHIP under 1.00.
Where the Cracks Began To Form
The red flags started appearing for Santana in 2025. His bottom line may have been outstanding, but nearly all of his peripherals had declined, or only raised reasons for concern. His whiff rate fell to 27.3% last year. He still had a 6.3% walk rate, but his strikeout rate dipped to 22.2%, nearly 10% lower than during his last 42 2/3 innings from 2024. Opponents weren’t just finding more contact against Santana, but it was usually harder contact as well. He had an 88.9 MPH exit velocity and a 10.6% barrel percentage in 2025.
Despite allowing more hard contact, Santana’s batting average on balls in play fell. His BABIP over his last 42 2/3 innings of 2024 was .255. While that is low, it is also expected for someone allowing very little hard contact. However, that fell to just .211 last year. His HR: FB was just 5.8%, despite his 15th percentile barrel percentage.
Santana’s ERA estimators also did not like the trend he was heading in. After his struggles in Colorado in 2024, he ended the year with a 2.59 SIERA, 2.98 xFIP, and 2.46 xERA over his last 42 2/3 frames. Then in 2025, he had a 3.68 SIERA, 4.17 xFIP, and 3.50 xERA. While these were still solid numbers, they were all higher than his 2024 counterparts by a run or more.
Santana’s pitch quality also downshifted. His FanGraphs Stuff+ fell to just 93, a ten-point drop from last year. His four-seam fastball went from sitting 95.8 MPH to 94.7 MPH. It also lost induced vertical break and horizontal movement.
The Issues Continue To Grow in 2026
Santana’s regression has only continued in 2026, but now the luck is catching up to him. Santana has an 89.9 MPH exit velocity and a 9.8% barrel rate. While these are similar to his 2025 marks, he now has a much more understandable .287 BABIP and a 13.6% HR:FB ratio. His whiff rate has now fallen to 25.9%, reducing his K% to 20.2%. Santana’s walk rate is now 11.5%. His ERA estimators have all risen by about another run. He now has a 5.21 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, and 5.29 xERA.
Santana’s stuff has regressed once again. Now, his fastball sits at 94.1 MPH, and his FanGraphs Stuff+ is now down to 92. He has topped his 2024 average fastball velocity of 95.8 MPH just three times this season. The right-hander hit 96+ MPH 42 times in 2024, but has hit that just eight times since the start of the 2025 season.
Santana’s issues were apparent well before the start of the 2026 season. He hasn’t looked like his 2024 self for a while now. His bottom line last year was much more a product of good luck than it was pure skill. Now, not only has luck caught up with Santana, but his decline continues. It’s time they look for a replacement for Santana, whether that comes from within, or via a trade.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
