The Cincinnati Reds have ensured that Chase Burns is sticking around for the long haul. The deal is the largest extension of all time given to a player with less than four years of Major League baseball service time. The 23-year-old right-hander will be paid $15 million annually, with no options or deferrals, not hitting free agency until 2034 per Spotrac. What does this mean for the Reds, who secured their ace for the long haul.
Chase Burns Rewarded For Stellar Season
If any player was going to set this extension record, it might as well be Burns. He is having a stellar season in Cincinnati, going 11-1 with a stellar 2.54 ERA in 18 starts. He also has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio of 118 Ks to 37 BBs. Which is invaluable to the Reds, who are just 21st in the league with 768 Ks.
Burns only utilizes three pitches, but his slider is one of the best pitches in the game. Drawing Ks from opposing batters a whopping 47.6% of the time. The pitch has a stellar 11-run value, good for the 98th percentile league-wide. Up from a 0 run value last season. Opposing lineups are hitting just .154 against his slider.
He is already cashing in on the potential the Reds saw when they drafted him second overall in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Wake Forest University. His 4.2 WAR leads the Reds by a mile this season. The Reds may have struggled to finish the first half, but by locking down Burns to a long-term extension, they now have one of the top starting pitching tandems in the MLB for years to come.
Reds Secure Top of Their Rotation for Years To Come
By securing Burns for the future, the Reds now have one of the most exciting young starting pitching tandems league-wide in Burns and Hunter Greene. Greene signed a six-year, $53 million extension with the Reds in April of 2023. Barring any injuries, this gives the Reds a strong duo atop their rotation until at least 2028, as the Reds have a $21 million club option for Greene in 2029 with a $2 million buyout.
Greene has dealt with his fair share of injuries in his five-year career, making his season debut on July 4 this season in an 8-5 loss to the Baltimore Orioles in which he gave up eight earned runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings pitched. But he was dominant in his following start on July 10 vs the Chicago Cubs, throwing a three-hit shutout over seven innings with 12 Ks to just one BB. At their best, they are both among the best pitchers in baseball. So it was a shrewd move by Reds’ President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall and the Reds’ front office to secure both pitchers long-term well before they hit free agency.
Andrew Abbott is also a solid member of the Reds’ starting rotation, coming off an All-Star season in which he posted a 2.87 ERA across 29 starts. He has failed to replicate that season to this point, posting a 4.11 ERA in 20 starts during the first half.
Due in large part to his inability to effectively utilize his four-seam fastball. Last season, his four-seam fastball run value was an impressive 15, per Statcast. This season, it is a distant last among his five pitch mix at -4. The 27-year-old is set to begin his first year of arbitration this offseason. If Abbott can find his 2025 All-Star form again, the Reds will have one of the strongest rotations in the MLB.
Outlook for Reds in Second Half
Offensive Woes and Injuries
The Reds started 20-11 as part of the incredible start to the season by the entire National League Central. Unfortunately, the start was unsustainable as the Reds went 23-41 the remainder of the first half. Yes, the Reds have had their fair share of pitching struggles, but the offense has also failed to take advantage of their hitter’s park in Great American Ball Park. The Reds rank in the bottom ten of baseball in batting average (.230), OBP (.310), SLG (.393), and OPS (.703).
They are 11th in the league with 119 home runs, but are tied for 27th in the league with 376 RBI. Their exciting 22-year old first baseman Sal Stewart, has been the most productive, leading the Reds with 93 hits, 65 RBI, and 19 home runs.
Elly De La Cruz still ranks among the top of the league in numerous categories per Statcast, and is in the 100th percentile league-wide with a nine baserunning run value but only had 14 steals in the first half. Well behind the pace of his 67 steals in 2024 and 37 last season. Part of the decrease could be due to not much help beyond Stewart in the lineup.
Ke’Bryan Hayes has become a total non-factor, hitting a paltry .143. Eugenio Suarez’s reunion in Cincinatti has not gone to plan to this point, as he is hitting .208 and has been limited to just 67 games due to injury issues. But he has managed to stay healthy since coming back on May 23 and will look to find his power on offense more consistently in the second half. He did finish the first half with home runs in consecutive games vs the Cubs.
Additionally, Matt Mclain, TJ Friedl, and Noelvi Marté are all hitting below the Mendoza line. But on top of the Reds’ offensive woes, they have dealt with major injury issues. Only Stewart and Spencer Steer finished the first half with 90+ games played.
Pitching Struggles
Like much of the Reds lineup, their top relievers have dealt with injuries. Closer Emilio Pagán and setup man Tony Santillan were limited to 18 and 34 games in the first half, respectively. Santillan does lead the Reds with 11 holds, but his ERA has ballooned from a solid 2.80 ERA in 80 games last year to 5.23 this season. He also will start the second half on the IL as he was placed on the 15-day IL 20 days ago with a significant left oblique strain. The Reds’ bullpen as a whole has been inconsistent, ranking 25th in the MLB with a 4.67 ERA.
The Reds are also tied for 25th in the league with 17 blown saves, per Screwball.com. Pagan has three of those blown saves, and largely struggled before getting hurt in early May. He missed almost two months with a left hamstring strain.
While Pagan wasn’t sharp, the closer by committee strategy clearly didn’t work either. Pagan collected his seventh save of the season July 5 in a 3-2 win over the Orioles. The Reds will hope that Pagan will be the consistent closer he was last season in the second half now that he is healthy. The back end of the rotation has also been inconsistent. Brady Singer has had his moments, but has also seen his fair share of struggles and at times been the victim of no run support. Beyond that, it has been a revolving door for the fifth starter spot. Greene’s absence was significant, and he will significantly bolster the Reds’ rotation in the second half.
But the Reds do face an uphill climb, currently 15.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. Additionally, they are eight games behind the Miami Marlins for the final wild card spot.
Unless the Reds start out the second half strong, they are likely to be sellers. At least they can hang their hat on knowing that the top of their rotation is now set for the distant future. The question is how quickly they will be able to build a contender around their two ace-level arms?
Main Photo Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
