Months of preparation and deliberation have officially paid off for MLB front offices, as the 2026 MLB Draft has come to a close. Beyond the intensive scouting on each player, each pick also comes with a conversation about the signing bonus, which can get lost in scouting publications and fans’ mock drafts.
While player rankings are constantly updated throughout draft season, behind-the-scenes developments can cause the actual draft to unfold very differently than the rankings would suggest. The ’26 draft was no different. After the first four picks went as expected, fans saw multiple players hear their names called a lot sooner or later than originally expected. Now, just because a player went higher than his projection suggested does not necessarily mean it was a bad pick, but for those who read mock drafts for 12 months, it can certainly raise some eyebrows.
Surprising 2026 MLB Draft Risers
It did not take long for a team to draft a player who was not typically seen among the top-10 picks in mock drafts. With the sixth overall pick, the Kansas City Royals selected Zion Rose, an outfielder out of the University of Louisville. Rose was ranked the 30th-best player in the class by MLB Pipeline prior to the draft, but given his athleticism and raw talent, it’s not very shocking that a team would go after him in the top 10.
The moment a childhood dream comes true.@zionroseball54 x @Royals #GoCards | #MLBDraft pic.twitter.com/k3pG55LtAZ
— Louisville Baseball (@LouisvilleBSB) July 12, 2026
With that, the two biggest first-round shocks came between picks 17 and 20. At 17, the Astros took outfielder Logan Hughes out of Texas Tech. Hughes was widely considered a second-round pick, but given his bat-to-ball skills, this reads as Houston playing it safe with their first selection.
Absolutely mammoth shot from Texas Tech OF Logan Hughes. Continues to trend more firmly into the first round.
Among the most complete offensive profiles in the country.
No. 19 ranked prospect for the 2026 Draft.
👇Top 300 & Comprehensive Reports👇pic.twitter.com/lpcMpBuV5o
— Over-Slot Baseball (@OverSlot_) April 22, 2026
A few picks after Hughes came off the board, the Boston Red Sox also decided to take a college bat, selecting shortstop Jake Schaffner out of North Carolina. This was a pick that no one outside of the organization saw coming. Schaffner entered the draft ranked as the 75th best prospect in the class, according to MLB Pipeline, so this may come off as playing it too safe in the first round. Scouts don’t see Schaffner sticking at shortstop in pro ball, so while his speed and ability to drive the ball from gap to gap are impressive, there were other college bats that made more sense at pick 20.
🚨 1st Round Pick 🚨
Former Madison Mallards infielder Jake Schaffner (2023, 2024) was selected 20th Overall by the Boston Red Sox in the 1st Round of the 2026 MLB Draft.
Congratulations, Jake! 👏⚾ pic.twitter.com/aQVBwgiX5X
— Northwoods League Baseball (@NWLbaseball) July 12, 2026
As soon as the first round ended, the Atlanta Braves quickly showed they couldn’t care less about consensus player rankings, which, with their track record of homegrown talent, feels understandable. With their PPI pick from Drake Baldwin winning the Rookie of the Year, Atlanta selected Carter Beck from Indiana State. Beck was the MVC Player of the Year this past season, and while he was ranked 149th by PerfectGame, analytic-heavy teams, such as Atlanta, could not care less, since he had some of the best contact rates and exit-velocity averages in the class.
Carter Beck is the Braves’ selection at 26!
Beck is extremely athletic who would profile as slightly above average across the board. Does not swing and miss much and started to get into some power last year.
B2B underslot selections means fun is otw. pic.twitter.com/etLCMmT6zS
— Taylor Greenhut (@TGreenhutOD) July 11, 2026
Surprising 2026 MLB Draft Fallers
Differences in signing bonuses can cause many mock-draft darlings to land later than expected. Jacob Lombard was the first big example of this: he was widely mocked as a top-five pick in the two months leading up to the draft, but he didn’t come off the board until Miami picked him at 14.
The Miami Marlins are selecting Jacob Lombard with the No. 14 pick in the 2026 MLB draft.
Lombard’s slide stops here as he’ll stay in the state of Florida with the Marlins. Great prospect to have fall in the laps of the fish. pic.twitter.com/bJuRUMEC70
— Tobey Schulman (@tschulmanreport) July 11, 2026
Another prep player, Gio Rojas, considered the top prep arm in the class, heard his name called 16th overall by the Texas Rangers, a team many scouting publications seemed to believe would never have the chance to draft. That was a recurring theme for the Rangers, though, as they scooped up prep lefty Brody Bumila in the third round. MLB Pipeline’s final rankings had Bumila as the 23rd player in the class, but news of an elbow injury caused the flamethrower to fall to the 89th overall pick.
With the No. 89 pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, the Rangers select Brody Bumila 🔥
The 5-star prep lefthander ranks No. 64 in our BA 500. pic.twitter.com/FZT1gOWV0A
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) July 11, 2026
The third round was also when college standouts Caden Sorrell and Sawyer Strosnider had their falls come to an end. Sorrell was a top-35 prospect heading into the draft, but his swing-and-miss problems allowed the Cubs to get him with pick 62. Strosnider was considered a surefire top-15 pick heading into the 2026 college baseball season, but after he finished with lower SLG and OBP than in his freshman year, Milwaukee added him to their already strong farm system with the 66th pick.
With their 2026 second-round pick, the Chicago Cubs are drafting Caden Sorrell, an OF out of Texas A&M.
In 2026:
.341/.434/.743 — 1.177 OPS
23 HR | 67 R | 76 RBI | 11 SBShows plus power and speed, though there are swing-and-miss concerns. pic.twitter.com/Rdjin53Jth
— Carson Wolf (@TheWrigleyWire) July 11, 2026
Main Image Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images
