The early summer season has arrived in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and tour guides are getting ready for trips around the world. That being said, let’s not feel left out. Allow me to take you on a trip to beautiful Naples, Italy. We will have pizza as we are in the birthplace of modern pizza, and a nice coffee with a backdrop of Mount Vesuvius. However, there’s one more thing Naples isn’t quite as well known for: it is the birthplace of Cincinnati Reds starter Chase Burns.
Chase Burns Emerging as Potential New Ace for the Reds
Chasing the Crown
For the past two seasons, Hunter Greene has been the de facto ace of the Reds. It’s hard to argue against it as he was coming off the heels of 2.75 ERA and 2.76 ERA seasons in 2024 and 2025. However, an unfortunate elbow injury and the meteoric rise of a top prospect have challenged the previously stable title of “ace” on the team. Greene will, of course, return in 2026 and is still an elite pitcher, but Chase Burns sure has taken on the #1 role with ease in his absence.
“Un Caffè, Per Favore”
Repeat after me, “Un caffè, per favore.” Congratulations! You have just ordered your first espresso here on our trip to Naples. Now, to the important stuff. After a cup of coffee in the big leagues last year for Burns, there were some questions regarding where he should start the 2026 season. In 2025, Burns appeared in 13 games (eight starts) and had a 4.57 ERA. While that doesn’t sound like a very successful stint, a great deal of those runs came in his second career start, where he got blown up in Boston. Overall, it was a strong first impression for Burns.
Shove some prosciutto in your uncle’s mouth if he starts to complain about his high ERA because you and I are better than reactionary takes based on surface-level numbers. Burns’ 35.6 K% and 2.65 FIP clearly pointed at a much prettier picture than the high ERA, and he has proved that to be every bit of the truth here in 2026.
Sophomore Season Success
OK, everyone, let’s gather around for lunch. I know the perfect order to go with a nice bottle of wine. A 1.83 ERA, 28.2 K%, 7.9 BB%, 3.39 FIP, and 1.5 fWAR. In case you haven’t caught on yet, no, that was not our lunch order. That is Chase Burns’ stats so far in 10 starts this year. At a time when the Reds have struggled immensely, Burns has stepped up his game even more.
Last Five Starts:
6 IP — 2 ER
7 IP — 0 ER
6 IP — 1 ER
6 IP — 0 ER
6 IP — 1 ER
Chase Burns is one of the best pitchers in MLB and he’s only 23…
Him and Hunter Greene will be a deadly 1-2 punch for the Reds for years to come ?pic.twitter.com/Q4R4X47ORR
— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) May 21, 2026
A Visit to a Palm Reader
Palm reading is a lost art, and I’ll be dammed if I partook in the mass disregard of it. That’s why today, we will be looking at some projections for the remainder of Burns’ season. Feel free to check back in at the end of the year to check the accuracy.
With 59 innings under his belt in 10 starts, Burns is on pace to throw anywhere from 170 to 185 innings this year, which would be huge. For a 23-year-old to already approach 200 innings in his first full season is incredible, especially as a part of Cincinnati’s already solid rotation. It’s not like Burns is simply eating innings, as his current 1.83 ERA only trails Cristopher Sánchez of the Philadelphia Phillies, who was considered a preseason Cy Young contender. Will his ERA remain sub-2 for the entire season? Most likely not. However, he will likely hover around 2.50, judging by his 2.88 xERA (85th percentile).
Burns’ overall all around ability on the mound has been amazing to see, especially for someone who is so freshly out of college baseball. We may be looking at not only a 1A/1B situation with Greene, but Burns being the undoubted ace of the team moving forward.
Main Photo Credit: © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
