The Pittsburgh Pirates have become known for their ability to develop pitching. Aside from obvious names like Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Braxton Ashcraft, the Bucs have found legitimate upside in low-cost pickups and late-round picks. One mid-round selection who is off to a strong start to 2026 is right-hander Matt Ager. He looks like another success story for the Pirates’ pitching factory.
Matt Ager Is Starting the Year off on the Right Foot
Low Expectations Going Into 2026
Ager certainly wasn’t coming into 2026 with very high expectations. A sixth-round draft pick from 2024, Ager posted a respectable 4.02 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 9.9% walk rate through 62.2 innings pitched for UC Santa Barbara. They used him both as a starter and closer, starting nine games and saving 11. He ranked just outside Baseball America’s top 100 draft prospects at #104. MLB Pipeline was slightly less bullish, ranking him at #135 on their top draft prospects list.
Ager spent all of 2025 at A-Ball Bradenton, but the results were nothing to be very proud of. In 76 innings, he posted a poor 4.86 ERA, 5.64 FIP, and 1.64 WHIP. He only got 14% of the batters he faced to strikeout with a whiff rate of just 19.5%. He also nearly walked the same number of opponents, with a 13.2% BB%. The only positive to come from Ager’s season was his 0.83 HR/9 ratio and 4.4% barrel rate.
Stronger Start to 2026 Than Surface-Level Stats Tell You
Despite his unimpressive season at A-Ball, the Pirates promoted Ager to High-A Greensboro to start 2026. His 4.67 ERA over his first 17.1 innings pitched is misleading. For one, his ERA- was 89, indicating his ERA was still about 11% better than the league average after including park and league factors. The main reason his ERA is misleading is that a 2.60 HR/9 ratio inflates it. His HR: FB ratio of 27.8% was unsustainably high.
For reference, Cal Raleigh’s HR: FB ratio last season, when he hit 60 home runs, was 25.3%. Ager also struck out a third of opponents and only walked them at a 6.9% rate. That hot start already earned him another promotion, this time to Double-A Altoona. While he has only appeared in one game so far for the Curve, he made a great first impression. He pitched four shutout innings, striking out four, and allowing just one walk. He also allowed only three base hits.
Ager Can Thank Increased Velocity
Ager hit 95 MPH during his start at Altoona. He only hit 95+ MPH once all last season. The young right-hander also did plenty of training and working out at Driveline this past offseason. According to Driveline, Ager clocked in around 95 MPH during his bullpen sessions. He has yet to start a game and has been utilized as a multi-inning arm out of the bullpen. Maintaining his velocity gains as the season wears on and his workload increases will be important for Ager’s development.
The Matt Ager Project pic.twitter.com/4w8aUvtdQN
— Brice Crider (@Brice_Crider) January 17, 2026
Along with a fastball, Ager also tossed a sinker in 2025. His primary off-speed pitch is a low-mid-80s change-up. Ager utilizes two breaking pitches. One is a curveball that sat in the low-70s last year. The other is a cutter that came in around the mid-to-upper-80s last season. He has controlled his stuff very well so far in 2026. Hopefully, he can continue to make improvements in that department.
Given how adept the Pirates have become at developing pitchers, Ager certainly has a good chance of both maintaining his velocity and improving his ability to locate. Ager is certainly becoming a very interesting pitcher to watch in the Pirates’ system. He is now getting tested at arguably the hardest level of the minor leagues and is starting off strong. He could become yet another interesting prospect in the Pirates’ system.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
