Luck can play a big factor in baseball, especially in small sample sizes. Since the 2026 regular season is barely a month old, every player has only played in small sample sizes so far, so good and bad luck are far more prevalent. While the Pittsburgh Pirates are off to a good start to 2026, they haven’t been immune to hard luck. They have a handful of players whose bottom lines in the early stages of the year aren’t as good as they could be; however, they will likely improve as the season continues if they keep doing what they’ve been doing.
Three Pittsburgh Pirates Who Are Off to Unlucky Starts to 2026
Oneil Cruz
There is no doubt that Oneil Cruz is off to a strong start to 2026. Throughout his first 122 plate appearances, Cruz is slashing .259/.320/.518 with a .360 wOBA and 124 wRC+. He already has eight home runs on the season, with an isolated slugging percentage above .250, clocking in at .259. However, even these strong numbers undermine just how good he has truly been at the dish this year.
Cruz is hitting the ball harder than ever before. His 96.8 MPH exit velocity is currently a career-best. His barrel percentage is also up to 23.2%, compared to 17.9% last year. That has led to a .381 wOBA and .568 xSLG%. That is a 21-point difference between his xwOBA and wOBA, and a whopping 50-point difference between his xSLG% and SLG%. Cruz currently has the same xwOBA as Shohei Ohtani, and a better xSLG% than both Jose Ramirez and Ronald Acuna Jr.
Mason Montgomery
On the surface, Mason Montgomery’s 3.97 ERA is perfectly serviceable, especially considering he had a 5.67 ERA last year. He has struggled with walks (11.8% BB%), and he has allowed his fair share of hits (8.7 hits/9). His WHIP comes in at 1.50 throughout his first 11.1 innings of the year. Obviously, there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to relievers.
Despite his unimpressive walk rate, Montgomery has a 41.2% strikeout percentage. He is above the 85th percentile of both chase rate (36%) and whiff percentage (33.9%). The hard-throwing left-hander’s batting average on balls in play is an extremely unsustainable .435 mark. Most of Montgomery’s struggles originate from his first three games of the season, where he allowed four earned runs and four walks in just three innings. Because he struggled throughout his first few games of the year, it is unsurprising that he has a strong 2.30 xFIP and 2.25 SIERA on the season.
Justin Lawrence
Justin Lawrence entered 2026 as a potential late-inning option for the Bucs. After all, he excelled in 2025 (albeit in an injury-limited 17.2 innings). He only allowed one earned run, struck out 23, and walked eight. Lawrence allowed just nine hits and no home runs. However, he has been far from dominant at the start of 2026. Lawrence has already allowed ten earned runs in just 12 innings of work. In that time, the right-hander has gotten knocked around the park for a dozen hits, three of which were home runs.
The biggest reason for Lawrence’s struggles is his 24.7% HR: FB ratio. Sure, he has gotten burned by hard contact. His barrel rate clocks in at a poor 15.2%, and his exit velocity is 91 MPH. However, the chances that Lawrence continues to give up a home run on a quarter of his flyballs are unlikely. For reference, Cal Raleigh’s HR: FB ratio last year was 25.3% when he hit 60 long balls. It also helps that Lawrence has a solid 27.3% strikeout percentage with a 9.1% walk rate. The right-hander hasn’t taken a step back in terms of stuff, with a 107 FanGraphs Stuff+ (compared to 105 last season).
Main Photo Credits: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
