When the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Seth Hernandez with the sixth overall selection in the 2025 draft, they hoped they were getting high-end talent. However, Hernandez is blowing those expectations out of the water and then some. The right-hander has been nothing but dominant to start the year. At one point, it was a hot take to consider him a potential future consensus number one prospect. However, now that looks like a mildly warm take, with the question of when (not if) we’ll see him start reaching the top spot on prospect boards. The question then becomes what more does he have to do to become baseball’s best prospect?
An Absolutely Dominant First Pro Season
Hernandez has made A-Ball hitters look utterly silly. He has pitched 17 innings for the Bradenton Marauders, allowing just a single earned run and four hits. Opponents can’t touch him. He has struck out a whopping 32 batters with an awe-inspiring 51.9% whiff rate. On the very rare occasions he has given up contact, his average exit velocity has been just 87.7 MPH. Walks have been a complete non-issue for him, dishing out just five free passes.
There’s no question Hernandez has top-of-the-line stuff. Despite still being just 19 and not turning 20 until late June, Hernandez is already averaging around 97-98 MPH, topping out at 100.5 MPH so far this season. On top of that, he throws his heater with above-average movement. Hernandez’s best secondary, his low-to-mid-80s change-up, has induced a whiff over two-thirds of the time. He utilizes both an upper-70s curveball and an upper-80s slider as his primary breaking pitches. So far, he has a whiff rate over 80% with both breaking offerings. To make his stuff even nastier, Hernandez throws off the mound with 7.2 feet of extension towards home plate. That makes his already outstanding velocity play up even further.
High Ranking, and Only Climbing Further
Hernandez still has progress to make to reach consensus number one prospect status, but he is already trending in the right direction. The right-hander ranked as MLB Pipeline’s 29th best prospect, and Baseball America’s 38th best heading into the 2026 campaign. He now ranks among the top 25 prospects on both sites, with the latter currently placing him at 18th. Hernandez is going to make gains in rankings, given that multiple top 20 prospects are soon going to be prospects no longer.
How Hernandez Can Become Baseball’s Number One Prospect
The Pirates’ own Konnor Griffin and Detroit Tigers’ infielder Kevin McGonigle are in the Major Leagues, and likely for good. They’re the consensus number one and number two prospects in all of baseball right now, and will soon graduate from prospect status. St. Louis Cardinals 2024 first-round pick JJ Wetherholt is also a consensus top-five prospect and is in the Major Leagues as well.
New York Mets young outfielder Carson Benge opened the year in the Majors and is a key part of their outfield, so he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Toronto Blue Jays Postseason hero Trey Yesavage is nearing his return to Major League Baseball after opening the year on the IL. Once he’s back, he’ll start nearing his prospect graduation date. The Boston Red Sox recently promoted top pitching prospect Payton Tolle, giving him a chance to be a prospect no longer very soon. Both Yesavage and Tolle rank ahead of Hernandez on both Pipeline and BA.
The obvious thing Hernandez needs to do is keep dominating as he moves up to the next level of the minor leagues. A-Ball hitters are giving Hernandez zero trouble. He is currently at the lowest full-season level of the minor leagues. A bump to High-A Greensboro will likely happen before June. If he looks anything like he does now when he gets promoted to Greensboro, he’ll climb rankings. Hernandez has a legit chance of reaching Double-A Altoona before the end of the year. Double-A is the biggest test for top prospects. Pitching well, there could be the thing that pushes Hernandez into number one prospect territory.
How Long Will It Be Until He Reaches Number One Prospect Status?
At Hernandez’s current rate, he’ll become a top-five prospect in the entire sport and the best pitching prospect by mid-season, at the very least. However, by the end of the year, he will be the consensus number one prospect with his current performance. As of right now, he has the best FIP, K% (53.3%), and K-BB% (45%), as well as the second-best ERA among qualified minor league pitchers to start the year. He is backing his elite numbers up with double-plus stuff and above-average command. Showing the hallmarks of an elite starting pitcher at just 19.
Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
