Matthew Liberatore is coming off a career-best season with the St. Louis Cardinals. As a full-time starting pitcher for the first time in his career, Liberatore set career highs in starts, wins, and innings pitched. Given the changes in the Cardinals’ pitching rotation heading into the new season, Liberatore is likely the frontrunner to be the club’s starter on Opening Day. Things are certainly trending in the right direction for the 26-year-old, but the upcoming season is still make-or-break.
2026 is Make-Or-Break For Liberatore
One Season is a Good Start, But More is Needed
For a first season as a full-time starter, Liberatore showed a lot of potential. When he was drafted, he profiled as a reliable second- or third-starter in a pitching rotation. When the Cardinals traded for him in December 2019, that was certainly the plan for the future. Instead, they got two seasons of a 5.00+ ERA followed by a reliable season out of the bullpen.
Last season changed things, however. Liberatore pitched his way into the rotation and was a serviceable option every five days. He certainly looked like someone who could establish himself right in the team’s rotation moving forward.
Progress, yes. Next, he has to show he can sustain the success. The Peoria native has struggled more than he has succeeded in his short MLB career. As a result, if he wants to be part of the team’s plans moving forward, he has to show he can be consistent.
Time is Not Liberatore’s Ally
Liberatore is under team control until 2030. However, he does not have that much time to establish himself, even on a rebuilding Cardinals’ team.
There are multiple pitchers in the Cardinals’ organization, either on the roster or in the farm system, who will look to figure into the rotation plans. A regression by Liberatore in 2026, combined with other pitches emerging, could push Liberatore out of the team’s long-term plan. To say time is of the essence would be an understatement. Last season was a good start, but with competition all over the place, there is no time for Liberatore to regress. Even if other pitchers perform well, another strong season (or better) by Liberatore will keep him in the conversation for the rotation.
Exciting Prospects on the Horizon
We briefly mentioned the Cardinals’ farm system, but what may get lost in translation is the upside and excitement surrounding the organization’s pitching prospects. Liam Doyle is a top-100 prospect who is viewed as a future ace. Jurrangelo Cijntje is a former switch-pitcher who could debut sooner rather than later. Quinn Mathews posted a 3.73 ERA in the minors last season as his stock continues to rise. Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, and Tekoah Roby are just others among a strong pool of young pitching.
Number 7: Quinn Mathews, LHP
2025: 3.73 ERA across CPX/A/AAA
Above average 93-94 MPH fastball, 16 in IVB
Plus gyro slider, 40 whiff%
Plus low-80s CH, 12 in. vertical offset, 12 MPH velocity gap from FB. 55% whiff%
50th percentile outcome: 45+, 4th-5th starter on a contender https://t.co/or8igFL9Rf pic.twitter.com/IscjHc1Wl0
— Adam Akbani (@AdamAkbani) March 3, 2026
Liberatore does not have to outpitch all these players to hold his spot in the rotation. If he can prove that he is the number-three man in a rotation, the Cardinals will be happy with that.
Liberatore Can Be Someone the Cardinals Value
The Cardinals value stable pitching, with Miles Mikolas perhaps the most recent example. If Liberatore can pitch six innings every start and keep the team in the game, that will be considered a success. They are not necessarily looking for him to be the next Bob Gibson or Chris Carpenter. All Liberatore needs to do is show he can be a Mikolas or a Lance Lynn. In fact, doing so would match exactly what was thought of him when he was drafted.
Needless to say, a big season awaits Liberatore; one that might just define his future with the Cardinals.
Image Credit: Tim Vizer-Imagn Images
