The Atlanta Braves organization knows a thing or two about producing elite rookies. In 2022, Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider took the league by storm, collecting all 30 first-place NL Rookie Of The Year votes between the two of them. Harris ultimately took home the award, but Strider was every bit as impressive on the mound. Now three years later, the Braves have another electric rookie duo on their hands.
MLB.com recently released its first ROY poll of 2025, in which a panel of 34 experts cast ballots to predict the eventual winners at season’s end using a points system. Jacob Wilson received all but three first-place votes in a clear-cut American League vote. The National League race is decidedly murkier at this juncture, but Braves right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver and catcher Drake Baldwin ranked first and second, respectively, ahead of Augustin Ramirez, Luisangel Acuña, and Dylan Crews. To have the two leading rookies through nearly 50 games is quite a development for a franchise whose minor league system was rated rather poorly entering the season.
Braves Cornering NL Rookie of the Year Race
Smith-Shawver is Smith-Shoving
Just as everyone guessed, the 22-year-old righty is the betting favorite for NL Rookie Of The Year in late May. Smith-Shawver actually made starts in 2023 and 2024, but threw only 29 2/3 innings total to preserve his rookie status this year. He started slowly with a 4.61 ERA through his first three starts, but displayed clearly improved poise compared to years past. Still, he got sent down to Triple-A for a few weeks to iron things out when Spencer Strider first returned from injury. Since being called back up, however, Smith-Shawver has been lights out, pitching to an eye-popping 1.08 ERA and 2.98 FIP while collecting three wins.
The youngster’s finest moment came on May 5th, when he tossed eight shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds. In the two starts since, Smith-Shawver has allowed all of one earned run to go with a 13/4 K/BB ratio. The underlying statistics are a bit shakier, but he appears to be putting it all together in his first full big-league campaign.
Smith-Shawver pairs a four-seam fastball that averages 95.3 mph with a disgusting splitter that has hitters completely lost trying to make contact with it. He has increased his usage of the latter pitch to 34.3% this year, which has been a smart move because it has a .167 xwOBA against. This lands the Fort Worth native in the 99th percentile in offspeed run value across all of MLB. If he can continue to leverage this elite offering while maintaining his improved command of the entire arsenal, he has a very strong chance to take home some hardware in October.
AJ Smith-Shawver, 96mph Fastball and 82mph Splitter, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/0V1BvjV4tx
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2025
Baldwin is Ballin’
Smith-Shawver’s biggest competition for the award so far is coming from his own teammate, Drake Baldwin. The catcher began the year without a clear path to playing time, but a spring training injury to starting catcher Sean Murphy opened a roster spot for the Madison, Wisconsin native. Baldwin has run with the opportunity and forced management to leave him on the roster, where he will certainly stay for the remainder of the year.
Baldwin, 24, has done nothing but mash through his first 84 major league at-bats. While not yet qualified for the statistical leaderboards, his .316 xBA, .388 xwOBA, and insane 61.4 hard hit percentage would all rank in the top five percent of all MLB hitters. In the month of May, Baldwin has resembled a left-handed Aaron Judge, with a .531 average and 293 WRC+.
Despite entering the season with questions about his defensive ability, Baldwin has more than held his own behind the plate as well. His solid 1.95 average pop time has helped him throw out four potential base stealers. Even more impressively, he ranks in the 80th percentile in pitch framing. Braves pitchers have raved about his maturity and ability to manage games at the catcher position. It’s safe to say that despite entering the year as Atlanta’s top prospect, Baldwin has wildly exceeded everyone’s expectations. He currently shows no signs of slowing down, and should remain in the thick of the NL Rookie Of The Year race to the end if he keeps it up.
The batted ball data from Drake Baldwin since April 15 is comical (57 PA’s)
Z-Contact rate: 90%
Hard Hit Rate: 60%
EV90: 107.4 MPHHitting .463/.491/.778 over that span with 5 HR. Entered the season as @JustBB_Media‘s No. 17 overall prospect. pic.twitter.com/6ZgVAmms8R
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) May 20, 2025
Photo Credit: © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
