Now that the St. Louis Cardinals have moved on, the future of free agent Paul Goldschmidt‘s career is uncertain. What sort of value might the former National League MVP bring to a new team? With free agent Pete Alonso likely to make the biggest splash in the 1B market, what kind of leverage can he command? Will teams be willing to bet on a return to form, or has Goldschmidt truly entered the twilight of his career?
Paul Goldschmidt Faces Uncertain Future as Free Agent
Goldy, Silver, and Bronze
When the Cardinals acquired Goldschmidt in a blockbuster 2018 trade, many fans had high hopes for his tenure in St. Louis. In his eight years with the Arizona Diamondbacks, he had six All-Star seasons, three Gold Gloves, and was a near-perennial MVP candidate. Coupled with a 2019 run to the NLCS and the 2021 acquisition of star 3B Nolan Arenado, it appeared that a new era had arrived in St. Louis. The Cardinals were able to extend Goldschmidt on a five-year, $130 million contract prior to that season.
This culminated in Goldschmidt’s magnificent NL MVP campaign in 2022. That season, he slashed .317/.578/.404 with 35 homers and 115 RBI.
However, despite their pairing of two of the most consistent offensive and defensive players this century, the Cardinals have failed to win a playoff series since 2019. They have lost in the Wild Card Game once, the expanded Wild Card Series twice, and have now fallen short of the postseason for back-to-back years.
Goldschmidt, now 37, struggled mightily in 2024. His 98 OPS+ was the worst of his career by a whopping 19 points, and his inability to hit in crucial moments became a particular point of frustration for fans.
With the Cardinals looking to supplement their current youth movement, they have also decided not to pursue an extension of Goldschmidt’s contract. While the Cardinals have multiple options to fill his role, where will Goldschmidt end up?
Goldschmidt’s Value
With the New York Yankees declining Anthony Rizzo‘s option for 2025 and the Diamondbacks declining to extend a qualifying offer to Christian Walker, there is no shortage of aging first basemen on the market this offseason.
Despite his struggles, Goldschmidt picked up his production toward the end of the season. Through September he slashed .275/.473/.313 with 13 XBH, showing late signs of a return to form as the Cardinals wallowed in the depth of the Wild Card race.
Paul Goldschmidt snatches the lead right back for the @Cardinals! pic.twitter.com/G6F3831Z4B
— MLB (@MLB) September 4, 2024
Compared to Rizzo, who slashed .228/.335/.301 in 2024, and Walker, who posted a .251/.468/.335 line, Goldschmidt is in line with or exceeds comparable players within the market. He is, however, two years older than Rizzo and four years older than Walker.
Nevertheless, the potential of prolonged above-average offense from Goldschmidt could entice a team to take a flyer on him in 2025. Further, his defensive stability and veteran presence at first base could provide a stasis to a younger team attempting to find their identity.
Comparable Signings and Contract Prediction
While the free agent Goldschmidt is almost certainly entering the final year(s) of his career, there are multiple teams that may take interest in his skill set.
For comparisons, let’s take a look at last year’s offseason. Carlos Santana, also a free agent this offseason, signed a one-year, $5.25 million contract with the Minnesota Twins. He was 37 at the time of the signing. Rhys Hoskins, who was 31 at the time, signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the Milwaukee Brewers.
No other first basemen over the age of 30 signed a major league contract. Many, including Joey Votto, Luke Voit, and C.J. Cron, signed minor-league contracts with hopes of getting playing time on the big league club. However, taking Votto as an outlier because of injuries and advanced age, Goldschmidt’s career production and consistency eclipses all of these players by a large margin.
Therefore, if a team such as the Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, or even the Diamondbacks were to offer a contract, it would likely be a one-year deal in the range of $10-15 million. Goldschmidt, perhaps, still has enough gas in the tank left to contribute to a building team.
Photo Credit: © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
