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Scott Boras Will Be Bad For Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso‘s future became clear once he hired Scott Boras in October. Extension talks haven’t gone far in the past, and the presence of Boras drops the odds close to zero. The two sides remain far apart with the Mets reportedly comparing Alonso to top first basemen and Boras allegedly comparing him to Aaron Judge.

However, Alonso should look at how the top free agent. represented by Boras has done this winter. Then, he should look at how modern front offices viewed and treated imperfect Boras clients in the past. Alonso could easily conclude that a Judge-type deal is no guarantee for him, despite what Boras says. While he shouldn’t take a deep discount, he should put more of an emphasis on signing a fair extension with the Mets this spring.

Scott Boras Will Be Bad For Pete Alonso

Boras has earned a reputation as a tough negotiator that gets monster contracts for his clients. However, it looks as if the tides are turning. This offseason, Boras represented several of the top free agents available. With Spring Training starting, four of those players remain available.

This continues the trend of Boras clients holding out for big deals deeper and deeper into the offseason. 12 years ago, Prince Fielder didn’t sign until late January. Back then, that seemed incredibly late. And yet, since then, Boras clients signing in late January, after the start of Spring Training, after Opening Day, or after the MLB Draft has become almost normal.

One reason for this might be that Boras is just an incredibly tough negotiator. Another could be that MLB front offices are operating increasingly more efficiently now. Boras potentially has failed to adapt to how modern front offices are run.

For example, Boras is known for closing deals by going straight to owners rather than deal with the head of baseball operations. It seems that owners are no longer falling for that. Chicago Cubs owner Tom Ricketts told reporters, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, that he has made it a point not to negotiate with Boras this winter.

Maybe it’s collusion. Or maybe owners are so motivated by saving money that they are using common sense. Either way, Boras has not adapted his styles to current trends and it’s hurting his clients.

Teams No Longer Ignore Red Flags Or Bid Against Themselves

Alonso possesses elite power, but teams increasingly are less willing to sign players of his profile long-term. In year one of his next deal, Alonso will be a non-athletic 30-year-old at a non-premium defensive position. As he ages, his defensive abilities will decline, and he can shift only to DH. Modern ideology says to avoid these players on deals longer than five years. However, rumors say Boras might ask for around 10.

This winter, teams clearly are not ignoring the red flags of Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, or Cody Bellinger. Snell has two Cy Youngs, but his production in non-award seasons is closer to league-average. Chapman is an elite defender with some offensive success, but his offensive production since 2021 is not elite. Bellinger had a great rebound 2023, but produced weak contact and was awful in the previous three seasons.

Additionally, these players have limited markets. Boras is great at getting teams to bid against themselves, but that is happening less often.

Example: Dallas Keuchel

Furthermore, Boras represented Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel after his age-30 2018 season. Boras wanted a lucrative, long-term deal for his quality, award-winning client. However, teams learned to view free agents for their future projections, not past production. For Keuchel, teams didn’t like how a soft-tossing lefty in his thirties would age.

Boras failed to read Keuchel’s profile and market correctly. This lead to Keuchel settling for a one-year deal, which he signed after the draft in June. Keuchel also failed to produce a league-average or better season, per ERA+, after the shortened 2020 campaign. That would have been year two of a long term contract.

Teams were proven right to not give Keuchel Boras’ asking price, and Boras’ stubborn method no-doubt hurt Keuchel. We don’t know what will happen to Snell, Chapman, or Bellinger. But it does not look good for them. And it might not end up well for Alonso next year.

What is Alonso’s Market as a Free Agent?

One way Boras ends up getting his crazy deals is by creating a bidding war among big market teams. While the Mets will surely be aggressive in keeping Alonso, other teams with deep pockets must compete with New York if Alonso’s going to come even close to a Judge deal. A team like the Milwaukee Brewers might be interested in Alonso via trade, but don’t have the financial resources to sign him as a free agent. So, Alonso must correctly forecast his market and determine if the Mets will have a true competitor.

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have been linked to Alonso via trade this winter and at last year’s deadline. Other reports indicate that Chicago intrigues Alonso. Also, many thought that the team’s signing of Craig Counsell signaled the beginning of financial aggression as its contention window opens.

However, the Cubs have stayed disciplined this winter in free agency. Many view them as the best and likely fits for Bellinger, but Jed Hoyer has not bowed to Boras’ demands. Neither has ownership. The Cubs have money, but have not shown a willingness to spend it.

Ideally for the Cubs, the long-term first base job gets claimed by either Michael Busch or former top prospect Matt Mervis. Neither is a certainty, as Busch doesn’t have much MLB experience and Mervis struggled greatly in 2023. If both struggle this year, Alonso fits the lineup and club almost perfectly.

The Cubs spent this winter under pressure to be aggressive in improving the team. However, nobody in Wrigleyville seemingly cares about the outside pressure. They will operate at their pace and within their spreadsheets. Additionally, the Cubs have not signed a Boras client to a multi-year deal in over a decade. Alonso expecting the Cubs to partake in a bidding war might be a losing bet.

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have been hunting stars and right handed power for multiple consecutive offseasons. Their desperation to spend money on stars is well known. Judge likely doesn’t get nine years or $40 million per year from the Yankees without San Francisco’s hot public pursuit.

While the team just signed Jorge Soler, the lineup could still use firepower. Additionally, the team lacks a first base option better than Alonso on the major league roster or in the farm system. Alonso checks the boxes of everything they’re looking for. Plus, Alonso will likely enjoy playing the role of the savior superstar that he would become in San Francisco.

While the Giants have been heavily linked to Chapman and Snell, they’ve been unwilling to meet Boras’ demands. Perhaps they are more willing to extend themselves for a more consistent player, like Judge and Alonso. If they’re still desperate for star power after this year, the Giants will likely act as a serious threat in a bidding war for Alonso.

Los Angeles Angels

Who knows what this team is doing? But something we do know is that owner Arte Moreno has signed/perused Boras clients before and prefers to give big contracts to position players. If first-round pick Nolan Schanuel struggles this year, does Moreno have patience to let him develop? Or will the erratic owner star chase and drive a bidding war for Alonso?

Moreno is unpredictable, but that’s exactly why the Angels must be considered here. While he said the team will reduce payroll this year, reports say they shouldn’t be ruled out for someone like Snell. It’s possible that Boras’ relationship with Moreno is strong enough to convince him to keep spending. If the Angels sign a Boras client this spring, will the team have money next winter for Alonso? Maybe Boras is telling Alonso that he can sway Moreno, but Alonso should be skeptical.

Toronto Blue Jays

In theory, the Toronto Blue Jays could look to upgrade first base if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. underperforms again in 2024. Perhaps under new leadership, the Blue Jays theoretically could sign Alonso and either flip Guerrero Jr. or pair the two at first base and DH. With Guerrero Jr. reaching free agency after 2025, Alonso would then take over at first base full time.

Toronto has money to spend and wants to win now. The Jays are the other main team linked to Bellinger. But, believe it or not, are playing coy regarding their budget and have declined to play Boras’ games. With Guerrero Jr. under contract, Toronto likely won’t go all in on Alonso, and will only be interested at their price. But at that, Alonso likely stays in New York.

Alonso Should Be Worried

It seems that Boras is hoping for another San Fransisco versus New York battle. The Yankees did not want to give Judge that big of a deal, but San Francisco gave them no choice. Like the Yankees, Stearns and the Mets don’t want to give a 3o-year old slugger a mega-deal, but likely will if they have to.

Unfortunately for Boras, Alonso’s market doesn’t project to have teams that he can manipulate. The Giants and Cubs have proven to be disciplined and patient when it comes to negotiating with Boras. He won’t be able to manipulate the owners into handing out a crazy deal.

However, he might be able to do this with Cohen. But Stearns, known for his discipline, is a wild card in this relationship. Alonso must determine whether Stearns can convince Cohen to not bid against himself. If he does, Alonso might be in for a rude awakening next winter. Scott Boras will hurt Alonso next winter, and the slugger must start paying attention.

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