According to reports, the Seattle Mariners will sign reliever Ryne Stanek. In his three years with the Houston Astros, Stanek tossed 173.2 innings with a 2.90 ERA (142 ERA+), 10.2 strikeouts per nine and 38 games finished. His best year in this stretch came in 2022, when he produced a 1.15 ERA in 54 2/3 innings. He now will look to reproduce these results in a TEAM uniform.
Ryne Stanek has agreed to a deal with the Mariners, per source.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) March 8, 2024
Ryne Stanek Signs with the Mariners
Despite his solid track record, relievers are volatile, and Stanek regressed in 2023. In 50 2/3 innings, he produced a 4.09 ERA and the second-worst strikeout rate of his career. He also gave up hard contact (20th percentile in Average Exit Velocity) and failed to get hitters to chase out of the zone. His struggles even continued in four postseason innings. Teams are no longer willing to pay for past production. It’s likely that Stanek lingered on the market because teams project last year’s struggles as the start of a trend as he progresses throughout his thirties.
FanGraphs projects Stanek to have a season similar to 2023 rather than 2022. That said, underlying metrics aren’t so down on Stanek’s performance. Older pitchers tend to lose velocity as they age, but Stanek was one of the harder throwers in the majors last season. He averaged 98.2 mph on his fastball, better than 96 percent of the league. He also generated whiffs at an elite level, meaning his velocity and stuff were still good enough to miss bats.
Stanek logged a significant amount of postseason innings with the Astros. In 13 postseason games 2021, Stanek logged 11 innings with 11 strikeouts, three walks, and a 2.45 ERA. He was even better during Houston’s 2022 championship run. He allowed zero runs, one walk, and six punch-outs in three innings across four games. It’s intriguing that Houston relied so little on Stanek even though he was coming off a superb regular season. Perhaps Houston sensed the regression and lost faith in him.
Seattle brings in a veteran, versatile arm who has remained healthy throughout his career. The big question now is whether the righty can bounce back or if 2023 actually began the trend for the rest of his career.
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