With just two weeks to go until pitchers and catchers are due to report to spring training, the best free agents remain unsigned. This is a problem not exclusive to just this year; this is a common trend, especially without MLB having a salary floor. Also, without question the $1.1 billion spent by the Los Angeles Dodgers has stifled the free agency market. However, Scott Boras’ elite clients remain unsigned. Reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and former NL MVP Cody Bellinger have limited markets. Jordan Montgomery, who helped the Texas Rangers to the World Series last year, remains unsigned. Not to mention Matt Chapman too, as all of them are represented by the super-agent.
This leads to the question: Has Scott Boras priced out his clients? There is a wider league issue that we will get into also.
Scott Boras and His Clients Quiet Offseason
Boras is one of the great agents in all of sports. He is renowned as a tough negotiator, is exceedingly smart, and has done his clients wonders for decades around the game of baseball. However, with respect, some people across baseball believe that Boras is partly to blame for the quiet offseason. Yet it seems that he has misread the marketplace and priced out his clients altogether. This is similar to the offseasons of 2017 and 2018 when the top four free agents, all Boras clients, were left to wait. It’s happening again, and he seems to have overshot with Blake Snell for instance.
Only One Offer for Snell
According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the only offer put forth to the southpaw and best pitcher remaining on the market was from the New York Yankees. It was reportedly a six-year, $150 million. What’s considered to be a very solid offer, that should have been given more consideration. However, this was dismissed out of hand. Scott Boras and Snell countered with nine years of $270 million, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
That is a completely unrealistic counter. Snell is 31 years old, not many teams might want to give him a long-term deal well into his late 30s. Only Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole have contracts that will keep them in the Bronx for some time. That counter by Boras left little room for negotiation. Consequently, the Yankees smartly pivoted and signed Marcus Stroman to a team-friendly contract.
Perhaps Boras gets real and comes back to the Yankees, but as of now, it looks like the Yankees have moved on. This remains the only known offer made to Snell.
Is Snell’s Marked Outpriced?
The Los Angeles Angels may jump in here if Snell’s market is overpriced. They need a splash after losing Shohei Ohtani to their crosstown rivals. The San Francisco Giants were always rumored with him, but they went with the high-upside deal for Jordan Hicks and traded for Robbie Ray instead. That leaves his hometown Seattle Mariners, but they have Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and Bryan Woo.
Feinsand has also mentioned the Blue Jays and Mets, but thus far it’s a dry market for such an elite arm. Boras has certainly priced out this client and should re-engage with the Yankees, rather than vice versa.
Where Will Jordan Montgomery Go?
According to many, Montgomery would love to return to the Texas Rangers. However, they have a financial issue. Their TV deal is in a perilous state as Diamond Sports Network is in bankruptcy. Until that is resolved (if that’s resolved) the Rangers can’t afford to sign him. Again, not a great look for baseball that the World Series Winning Rangers can’t afford to re-sign the ace of their staff.
Through his wife’s work, he has ties to the Boston area, but they aren’t looking to compete this year. It looks like the ship has sailed with reuniting with the Yankees after Cashman traded him for current New York Mets center fielder Harrison Bader. Due to the belief, he wouldn’t make their playoff rotation- which has blown up in their face. Plus, there are well-founded complaints from Montgomery’s camp regarding how they used him.
Montgomery certainly looks like another player that may have to wait well into February.
What’s the Market for Cody Bellinger?
Bellinger smartly upped his value by going to the Chicago Cubs and returned to being the feared hitter he was with the Dodgers, where he won an MVP. Sporting a .300 batting average to go with 26 homer runs, 97 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and Gold Glove defense. Remarkably, there has been little movement with Bellinger this winter. Feinsand reports that he heard the Cubs are most likely to find a way to retain him. Also quoting an NL Executive who thinks the Yankees may jump in.
With Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo, their outfield is stacked. It makes zero sense to sign Bellinger not to mention that Jasson Dominguez returns later in the summer. Also, Anthony Rizzo will be at first at least for one more season. Giancarlo Stanton is the DH too. He’d make the Yankees better with his lefty bat, but there isn’t an immediate fit.
Seeking a lucrative long-term deal it appears the market has thinned out for Bellinger. According to Jon Heyman, Bellinger is seeking offers over $200 million. In a thin market, this appears unrealistic. It’s more likely he’ll end up having to accept a Carlos Correa Minnesota Twins deal with opt-outs next year to allow him to re-test the market. Unless the Chicago Cubs go hard for him, this again appears to be a situation where Boras priced out his client.
Matt Chapman, Anyone?
The elite defensive third baseman winning his fourth Gold Glove, with a little pop, also has a dry market. He’s been linked with the Yankees recently, (as has everybody) but it looks like the Yankees are set at third with DJ LeMahieu and Oswald Peraza. It’s questionable what further value he’d add since the aforementioned names are both excellent defensively too. Unless Gleyber Torres is traded for a starting pitcher, it doesn’t like Chapman will be a Yankee.
Chapman is coming off an up-and-down year for the Blue Jays. Posting just 17 home runs and a disappointing .755 OPS. His home run totals are the worst since the Covid-shortened season. He was great in Oakland, and a good hitter overall it just didn’t happen for him in Toronto. Despite starting on fire hitting .372 in April, he collapsed thereafter. With his batting average dropping to the Mendoza line and below each month after.
The best fit for Chapman is likely the Giants, as they still need a bat to augment their team and someone to play the hot corner. But he could be a resurgent candidate as his Barrel and Hard-hit percentages are each in the 90th percentile. Boras needs to press that to the marketplace and gain him suitors.
Boras Is Only Part of the Wider Issue
It is no secret that baseball has an issue, it disincentivizes smaller teams to spend to compete. For instance, teams don’t want to lose draft picks or international money when signing someone rejecting a qualifying offer. Another reason for some free agents remaining unsigned is that the Cohen Tax threshold of $ 300 million doubles every dollar spent by teams over it.
Thus, for instance, if the Yankees were to sign Blake Snell for 25 million per year, the actual amount would be 50 million per year. This means even the Yankees, the most valuable team in sports, have a budget. Small market teams don’t spend money, and there’s no punishment for it. Whilst you’re punished for spending it.
On one side of the chasm, The Oakland Athletics disgraced the sport by their cynical firesale of all their talent two years ago. Sending out a minor league caliber roster in front of an empty, poorly maintained Ballpark. I have great sympathy for the fans in Oakland, knowing their owners are waiting to move to Vegas.
As stated before, the Dodgers spent over a billion dollars in deferred contracts to cover up half of free agency. Credit to them for their desire to get better each year. However, most of the league isn’t involved in the process at all.
Something has to change for parity’s sake.
Will a Salary Floor Fix This Issue?
This is why there needs to be a salary floor to improve parity around the league. At a minimum, from the luxury tax dollars accrued from the big spending teams in New York and Los Angeles, there should be a demand that the vast majority of that income be injected into the roster budget.
As for Boras and other agents, it’s a difficult market to navigate knowing there’s only a handful of teams willing to spend. However, it’s incumbent on the agent to read the market. It doesn’t appear in Boras’ case that he’s read the trends around the league. There is simply not enough demand to meet the supply due to the lack of teams that wish to spend, which is a leaguewide problem.
Partly by the agent, but also by the way the league is set up. This doesn’t happen in the NBA, NHL, or NFL. Free agency business is done and dusted in a matter of days because there is supply and demand. There’s a salary cap and floor, and teams need to get better. It makes interest in these Sports outweigh that of Baseball around the country.
As long as players and teams around baseball don’t wish to have a cap on their salaries and wages, we run into these situations where one team monopolizes the Winter. Last year it was the Mets, and this year the Dodgers. Before that the Yankees. And at the other end of the scale, teams like the A’s or the Tampa Bay Bays shamelessly don’t spend a dime.
Rob Manfred needs to address the spending issue, and Boras needs to put more realistic values on his clients.
Photo Credit: © Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
