The New York Mets will likely be one of the most active clubs in MLB for yet another offseason. After a disappointing 2023, there are not many spots on the roster that can’t reasonably be upgraded this winter. With an enormous bag of resources available, owner Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from bringing top-tier stars to New York. However, just because they might be available and fit a need, there are certain stars that the Mets shouldn’t acquire this winter.
Cohen, Mets fans, and baseball in general learned once again this season that stars don’t automatically lead teams to wins. Just because a big name is available, Cohen should not feel obligated to make that big splash. Ideally, new President of Baseball Operations David Stearns will show discipline in building the roster.
Three Stars the Mets Should Not Acquire this Winter
Juan Soto
On paper, Juan Soto is a good fit for the Mets. The team has an opening in left field and prefers hitters with his profile. Soto provides lefty pop and a disciplined eye at the plate. He is exactly what they thought Daniel Vogelbach could provide offensively.
Additionally, Soto turns 25 in late October. This disastrous season taught Cohen that you shouldn’t necessarily stay away from stars. You just shouldn’t heavily rely on aging stars. Soto has likely not even entered his prime and is thus the type of star Cohen wants to invest in.
Would the Mets using prospect capital on Juan Soto the way to go this offseason?@NYNJHarper discusses with @sal_licata on Baseball Night in New York https://t.co/jHPGIZfHup
▶ Tri-State @Cadillac pic.twitter.com/fy9egHOkLE
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 29, 2023
However, Soto is only signed through 2024. Acquiring a star rental player makes sense if he makes the team true World Series (not just postseason) contenders. The Mets are not in that position right now. Also, it’s questionable as to whether Soto is even that player. San Diego thought Soto would push them over the top, and he hasn’t.
The Mets could theoretically trade prospects for Soto, and then extend him. Cohen did this with Francisco Lindor. But Cohen might have saved $40-$100 million if he had waited to sign Lindor in free agency after 2021. Would Cohen want to risk that scenario with Soto?
Plus, extending Soto before Pete Alonso might alienate the face of the franchise. Would this be worth upsetting Alonso, other clubhouse leaders, and the fans?
Soto fits the Mets, but it makes more sense to sign him next offseason. New York has learned the hard way that having a dry farm system hurts contention at the Major League level. With all the struggles that it took to acquire good prospects, the Mets shouldn’t be quick to give them away so fast. Cohen’s wallet is a huge advantage and should be the only thing used to acquire Soto.
Josh Hader
The Mets need pitching help, including in their bullpen, and Josh Hader represents the best reliever available. However, he is a star that the Mets should not acquire this winter.
Hader has made it clear that he prefers pitching one inning at a time. He performs great in this role and is perhaps the best closer in MLB. However, the Mets are not a lockdown, one-inning arm away from World Series contention. Blowing games late was not a huge issue for the team. New York needs better innings from starters and middle relievers.
The Mets expect Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, and Brooks Raley to return and anchor the 2024 bullpen. Adding Hader, especially as a second lefty, would greatly strengthen the unit. However, making another potential $100 million commitment to this part of the team would not be efficient roster construction.
An arm like David Robertson can fortify the backend of the bullpen while costing potentially $10-15 million less annually than Hader. The Mets should spread the remaining money around the entire pitching staff.
Additionally, Hader would best fit the Mets as a multi-inning reliever deployed in any inning to stop a rally. He established himself with the Milwaukee Brewers in this role. However, the 29-year-old hasn’t been inclined to pitch this way during his arbitration and free-agent years.
Josh Hader on getting paid less because he didn’t fit the role of a traditional closer in Milwaukee: pic.twitter.com/fP38Ij1hGH
— And That’s Baseball (@AndThatsBB) September 27, 2023
Maybe he’ll be open to it once he signs his huge deal. But at that point, would Cohen want to spend that money on a reliever through his thirties? He did it with Diaz, but has since learned a lesson about relying on aging stars.
If he does not want to perform this role with the Mets and the bullpen struggles in the middle innings, Hader will become an easy target for the media and fans. It’s fair to wonder whether he can handle that in New York.
Blake Snell
Coincidentally, Blake Snell is a third 2023 Padres star that the Mets should not acquire this winter. Snell is about to win his second career Cy Young Award, and the Mets need frontline starters. However, Snell doesn’t feel like an ace pitcher worthy of a deal north of $150 million from the Mets.
Turning 31 in December, Snell has a reputation as a pitcher who should be consistently better. Some guys do a lot with a little, and many see Snell as someone who does not do enough with a lot. He has elite talent that should produce great results more often than it has throughout his career.
The Mets need a bulldog, ace pitcher that can go deep in games. The constant lack of innings provided by starters whom the Mets heavily relied on contributed greatly to the team’s collapse.
Snell won’t help this issue. Despite making 32 starts, he averaged less than six innings per start. Modern front offices prefer higher quality performances in short spurts over longer spurts with not as good quality. However, the Mets are not set up for this. The roster does not currently have enough bullpen depth or reliable starters to cover Snell’s lack of innings.
Snell could work if the Mets had two or three starters capable of pitching 200 innings and a deep bullpen that could step up during Snell’s starts. But New York has neither.
His 13.3 walk percentage was among the highest in the league. Perhaps the Mets feel that they can help Snell go deeper in games by limiting his walks without sacrificing his stuff.
Jordan Montgomery lacks the ceiling of Snell, but is still above average, more consistent, New York tested, and likely less expensive. Montgomery might be a better option for the Mets than buying high on Snell.
What I expect Jordan Montgomery lands in Free Agency this offseason?
5 Yrs $100M
See Blake Snell getting the Carlos Rodón deal 6-$162M
Eduardo Rodríguez probably lands deal similar to Montgomery
All 3 markets helped by Julio Urías legal situation
— MLBExecutiveBurner (@HotStoveintel) October 3, 2023
Photo Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
