To the surprise of a few at the beginning of the season, the Chicago Cubs have been in the thick of a division race. After time at the bottom of the NL Central, they are now in a wild card race. One of the significant reasons for this has been starting pitcher Justin Steele. At 27 years old, the left-hander from Mississippi has had a breakout season with the Cubs. He even earned his first all-star selection. Regardless, only one pitcher in the National League will be the best, and here is why it should be Justin Steele.
His Season So Far
The most impressive part of Justin Steele’s game is the ability to help the Cubs win. In 25 appearances with Chicago this season, he has a record of 15-3, which gives him the most wins in the National League (tied with Spencer Strider). In the last three starts where Steele was not credited with a win or a loss, Chicago pulled away with a win. This would put him at a record 18-7, which would be favorable odds.
In 144 innings pitched, Steele has an ERA of 2.69 with a WHIP of 1.174 and 141 strikeouts. When looking at WAR (wins above replacement), he would be fourth among NL pitchers with 3.5. Consequently, this would put him ahead of Kodai Senga and Clayton Kershaw.
Comparing Other Candidates
The other contenders in the Cy Young race would be Blake Snell, Zac Gallen, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and Kodai Senga. Blake Snell is the National League leader in ERA at 2.60. However, Steele has been able to last longer in games this season than Blake Snell while pitching at a similar level. Snell has won a Cy Young with the Tampa Bay Rays before, which could favor him to win a second. However, Snell leads the National League in walks with 82, while Steele has only thrown 31 walks. Charlie Morton would be on the same level as Justin Steele but would likely see some votes split with teammate Spencer Strider.
As for Spencer Strider, he has as many wins as Justin Steele and has pitched 9 and 1/3 innings in one more start. The most significant appeal to Strider’s year has been his ability to strike batters out (leading the league with 246). However, Justin Steele has the edge because Strider’s ERA is 3.46, a lot higher than Steele’s. This stat would also put Justin Steele ahead of Senga as well.
Zac Gallen would be the biggest obstacle for Steele to overcome. Gallen is 14-6 this season with a 3.32 ERA in 173 and 1/3 innings with a WHIP of 1.096. Like Steele, Gallen also received an all-star selection this year. However, if Steele were to win the Cy Young, it would be due to his ERA+ and ability to give up fewer home runs. Steele leads the majors with a 168 ERA+, higher than Gallen’s 129. Steele has only allowed 11 home runs, and Gallen has allowed 20 this season.
Final Thoughts
The lack of innings might put Steele at a disadvantage, but if he continues to finish the regular season dominant, he is in serious consideration. Steele was a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher for the Cubs at the beginning of the season, so it shows how far he has come; still, with a few more years pitching on the north side, the Cubs have found another ace.
Main Photo Credits: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
