2015 was the year of the American League as an underdog. Their three division winners topped out at 95 wins, while the National League put forth three 90+ win teams. In fact, the St. Louis Cardinals reached the enviable 100-win plateau. Meanwhile, the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers cruised fairly easily to division titles of their own. In stark contrast, the American League’s Texas Rangers won their division with only 88 victories. However, it was the 95-win Kansas City Royals that took home a World Series championship, their first in 30 years. In terms of the 2015 MVP race, everyone had a chance to shine. But, as with 2014, it was an offense-heavy group in the AL, while the NL featured prominent pitching. Nevertheless, the year saw two of the game’s biggest bats take home the MVP awards.
In the AL, the Toronto Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson won the team’s first MVP since George Bell in 1987. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals picked up their first in franchise history in the NL when rising star Bryce Harper won. The question now becomes whether or not they were worthy recipients. As with our previous installments, we will endeavor to find out.
2015 MVP Race: American League
Donaldson had some major competition in the AL. Once again, the Los Angeles Angels boasted the best in the league by WAR, as Mike Trout took home that title for the fourth straight year. Not to be outdone, Baltimore Orioles third baseman Manny Machado challenged Trout for the top spot but fell a bit short. Surprisingly enough, Donaldson only managed to squeak onto the podium. In fact, he tied with Kevin Kiermaier and finished just a tenth of a point ahead of Lorenzo Cain. We have a lot to discuss here, so let’s not waste any more time.
Josh Donaldson
It isn’t often that we begin these lists with the real-life MVP, but the WAR numbers don’t lie. Donaldson may have finished with a third-place 7.1 WAR, but that did nothing to diminish his fantastic season. His first year in Toronto yielded a second straight All-Star nod. He hit .297 while notching his first 40 homer/40 double campaign. His 123 RBI, 122 runs scored, and 352 total bases all led the league. He was also tops in sacrifice flies, a stat which, in this writer’s opinion, should be taken into account when determining an MVP. Value comes from many places and, in 2015, Donaldson proved this.
Manny Machado
After some inconsistent playing time in prior years, Machado burst out in 2015. He played in all 162 games, leading the league with 713 plate appearances. He hit .286 with 35 homers, 86 RBI, and a 132 OPS+. Though he did strike out a fair bit, he also put the ball in play very well. This helped lead to a .297 BABIP, a .502 slugging percentage, and 318 total bases. Not only that, but an excellent glove and a 2.3 dWAR helped lead to his second Gold Glove. In reality, he finished fourth in MVP voting. Given another look, he could potentially take the title.
Mike Trout
Another year, another instance of Trout winning the AL WAR title. He may not have won the MVP in 2015, but his numbers were an improvement over his MVP season in ’14. His average was up and he pushed past 40 homers for the first time. He cut his strikeouts and walked more as well. His slugging percentage (.590), OPS (.991), and OPS+ (176) all paced the league. He even added one more to his total base tally from the previous year. All told, he was runner-up in the league MVP voting. Here, though, he has a definite shot at taking home back-to-back trophies.
Mike Trout’s 2015 Statcast percentiles were obscene. pic.twitter.com/Tz3Km3WJt1
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 3, 2023
The MVP should be…
This was really the first difficult decision that this writer has had to make in this series. Both Trout and Donaldson had MVP-worthy campaigns. After reviewing the entire pantheon of statistical evidence, it has to go to Trout. He simply played at a higher level than Donaldson did, both offensively and defensively. While Donaldson’s defense was barely above league average, Trout managed a 1.3 dWAR. That small tidbit is what vaults him over the top. As stated before, value comes from many different spots. In the AL’s 2015 MVP race, Trout defined that more than Donaldson.
2015 MVP Race: National League
Once more, the National League proved its superiority when it came to hurlers. Four of the top 10 WAR metrics in the league belonged to pitchers. Two of these were in the top three, so they’ll be discussed here. In terms of surprise candidates, the Chicago Cubs found one in Jake Arrieta. Meanwhile, the Dodgers had a bit of a predictable choice in former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. Finally, Nationals star Bryce Harper had the monster campaign that had always been expected of him. In the end, Harper took home the gold. But, his worthiness must be called into question here. Let’s examine all three and see if he really deserves it.
Jake Arrieta
Arrieta began his career by going 20-25 with a 5.46 ERA over four years with the Orioles. Midway through 2013, he was shipped to the Cubs. Once there, he began lighting up opposing batters and, by 2015, he was one of the best in the league. That year, he won his only Cy Young Award along with a league-leading 22 games. His ERA was a sparkling 1.77 and he tossed three complete game shutouts. In 229 innings, he only gave up 10 home runs while notching 226 strikeouts. His WHIP was below 1.000, and he posted the lowest H/9 and HR/9 metrics in the NL.
Zack Greinke
Greinke is nothing if not a workhorse. He proved this in 2015 by hurling over 220 innings and keeping his ERA at a league-best 1.66. However, it is in some of his more advanced statistics that his true potency becomes apparent. He posted an ERA+ of 222, becoming the only pitcher in Dodgers history to have a mark over 200. The previous record, set by Clayton Kershaw in 2014, was 197. Greinke set another Dodger record, posting the lowest WHIP since Sandy Koufax struck out 382 batters in 1965. His ERA was the lowest by a Dodger since Rube Marquard’s 1.58 mark in 1916. So, all told, not only did Greinke have an excellent season…he had a historic season. He’s definitely a more-than-viable candidate in the 2015 MVP race.
Bryce Harper
The name at the top of the Senior Circuit’s 2015 MVP race is one that, up until then, had always had MVP potential, but had yet to experience it. In 2015, Bryce Harper played in more games than he ever had. In so doing, he posted career highs in all the major offensive categories. He led the league with 42 homers, 118 runs scored, a .460 on-base percentage, a .649 slugging mark, a 1.109 OPS, and a 198 OPS+. Though his defense was average, his offense helped push him to a league-best 9.1 oWAR with a .369 BABIP and a .319 isolated power metric. As with Greinke, Harper had a historic campaign. His MVP candidacy is definitely warranted.
The MVP should be…
Once more, this was a very tough decision, and it comes down to Greinke and Harper. The two both had seasons for the ages. However, this writer has to go with Greinke, simply because his year feels more historic. Any time a pitcher does things that place them in the company of people like Sandy Koufax, they deserve special recognition. So, in a battle of two absolutely legendary campaigns, Greinke simply outdid Harper. That’s why, in our alternate reality, he wins the NL’s 2015 MVP race.
Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Players Mentioned: Josh Donaldson, George Bell, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Kevin Kiermaier, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Sandy Koufax, Rube Marquard
