The shortstop position has been a tricky one so far this season. Many of the sport’s best shortstops coming into the season have altogether been a disappointment, or just downright bad. Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa have put up OPS figures of .656, .741, and .679, respectively. These three all signed massive contracts as free agents last winter. Francisco Lindor’s .793 OPS and 3.9 fWAR are good, yet his .238 batting average is still concerning. Besides Lindor, Bo Bichette, Corey Seager, Dansby Swanson, and J.P. Crawford have performed the best as primary shortstops this season. One player that should not be forgotten is Bobby Witt Jr. who has been underrated yet excellent this year. While some of his surface numbers don’t look stellar, a deeper look shows that Witt is already a top shortstop in the sport, and may even be close to the best.
Bobby Witt Jr.: Analyzing His Rise
2022 Season
Witt is really coming into his own this year after a solid yet somewhat disappointing rookie season. While Witt did put up an impressive 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases, he did it while hitting .254/.294/.428, making for a .722 OPS which was barely league average. The offensive production was underwhelming for baseball’s 7th-best prospect heading last season. It was a year of transition for Witt as he developed in the minors playing shortstop but had to split time between short and third in his rookie year.
He appeared in 97 games at shortstop and 52 games at third base, posting a .759 OPS at the former and .653 OPS at the latter. The difference in offensive production might signal a higher level of comfort at his natural shortstop position. However, his defense was very poor regardless. At third base, Witt posted -4 DRS and -3 OAA. At shortstop, he posted -18 DRS and -9 OAA. Both defensive metrics measure different things but both show how poorly he performed with the glove. In all, he posted a total of 2.3 fWAR in 150 games but has already surpassed that in 2023 with 3.8 fWAR in just 109 games.
2023 Season
Unlike many in the history of this sport, Witt was able to avoid a sophomore slump and elevate his performance in a big way here in 2023. Both by the results and process metrics, Witt has become a much better hitter, defender, and base runner. Witt is transforming into a five-tool player and one of baseball’s best shortstops right before our eyes. He has gotten better as the season progressed, being one of the best hitters in the sport since the start of July.
.@BwittJr has been out of this world since the calendar flipped to July. 🤯
(MLB X @XboxGamePass) pic.twitter.com/ZJOZ3rSDpX
— MLB (@MLB) August 5, 2023
His .345 BA, 664 SLG, 1.030 OPS, eight HR, 27 RBI, and nine SB show he has been a top-10 player in the sport during this stretch. On the whole, Witt is batting .270/.304/.480, with a .788 OPS, 114 OPS+, and 3.8 fWAR. He pairs that with 20 HR, 62 RBI, and 32 SB, as well as 12 OAA. These numbers show that he has been a top shortstop in the league this year. The Kansas City Royals may have a putrid 36-75 record, but Witt has been a huge bright spot for them.
Improvements
There is really just one thing stopping Witt from being an eventual MVP winner and the actual best player in baseball, which is plate discipline. The notion of plate discipline pertains to more than just walks or on-base percentage. However, in Witt’s case, it really is walks and OBP that will drag him down.
Even amidst a much improved season, Witt still only has a 4.8% walk rate and .308 OBP. In 2022, those numbers were 4.7% and .294 OBP. Witt posted a 9% walk rate in the minors in 2021, which is slightly above average. It’s hard to be a truly great hitter when you don’t walk because a player with a .308 OBP won’t win MVP even if all other numbers look stellar. In other metrics, Witt has decreased his chase rate from 34.7% to 31.2%, which signals progress even if it only ranks in the 32nd percentile of the league. On the other hand, Witt’s meatball swing rate has increased from 78% to 84.8%. This means Witt is doing better at swinging at pitches in the heart of the zone, which helps lead to better contact.
Behind these process stats, taking one look at Witt’s Baseball Savant page shows simply how good he already is. His barrel rate has increased from 8.7% to 11.9% while increasing his hard-hit rate from 38.6% to 44.1%. His sweet spot rate has gone up from 32.5% to 36.2%, and xwOBACON from .377 to .447. Beyond that, Witt is in the 75th percentile or better in max exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel rate, sprint speed, OAA, and arm strength. Defensively, even with 0 DRS on the year, Witt’s 12 OAA shows significant improvement on that side of the ball. This type of progress shows it is only a matter of time before he wins a Gold Glove.
2023 Ranks Among Shortstops
It’s time to determine where Bobby Witt Jr. ranks among shortstops in various statistical categories (min. 300 PA). Witt’s 20 home runs and 66 RBI both rank second to Lindor (22 HR, 69 RBI). His 59 runs scored rank fifth while 32 stolen bases rank first. He has a .270 BA that ranks eighth and a .480 SLG that ranks fourth. By wOBA, Witt’s .334 is only 11th but that’s with a .369 xwOBA which ranks third. Witt’s .788 OPS ranks ninth and his 3.8 fWAR is tied for second. Defensively, his 12 outs above average rank second right behind Wander Franco and Dansby Swanson, who both have 13. By Fangraphs’ baserunning runs (BsR), Witt’s 4.2 ranks as the fourth-best among shortstops.
Final Thoughts
It may be too early to definitively say that Bobby Witt Jr. is the best shortstop in baseball. However, it’s not too early to think that he might be. By many results-based statistics, Witt is already one of the five best shortstops in the league. However, if there is one thing that the more analytical player profile shows us, it is that there is still so much room for growth. His xBA (.294), xSLG (.540), and xwOBA (.371) far outperform his actual BA (.270), SLG (.480), and wOBA (.334). Combine this with his already stellar baserunning and much-improved defense, there is proof in the pudding that he is already a five-tool player. Witt has the upside of an MVP candidate and 2024 might be the year when he becomes one while solidifying himself as the best shortstop in baseball.
Main photo credits:
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Players mentioned:
Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Bo Bichette, Corey Seager, Dansby Swanson, J.P. Crawford, Bobby Witt Jr., Wander Franco
